FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2013 Week #17 Update and Wild Card Contest

Here we go - again.

In 2011, at the close of the season, I wrote my Week #17 update with stats and comments from that closing heartbreaker and offering some statistics from the overall contest.

Then, later in the week, I offered a second FanPost after realizing what KD was offering as a Playoff Contest. In that second FanPost, and with his permission and blessing, I ran a contest to pick the Wild Card winners. Then, everyone migrated over to his Playoff Contest, and Mikellie made history.

Last year, I combined both my Week #17 Update and Wild Card Contest into one FanPost. It was like my "normal" weekly FanPosts - reports and tables from week #17, congratulations to that week's 10-for-10, and an update on the overall leaderboard.

I promised to do a later FanPost with all my awards and recognitions. Read 2011's final FanPost and let me know if there's anything else you would like to see. Some of the recognitions came as a result of a direct request from one or more of you. I'll be happy to research something for you and report there.

Unfortunately, I never got it done. CowboyBaby, I didn't forget you. I just never got to it. So, with apologies to CowboyBaby and other leaders from last season, here is my intention for my final 10-for-10 FanPosts of this season.

This FanPost - my final weekly report from this season and the Wild Card Contest (make picks here this week):

Next week - KD will publish his Playoff Contest (Division Round through Super Bowl), crown the 2013 champion, and recognize the new (and upgraded) members of the Hall of Fame. I will publish a FanPost recognizing winners from this week's Wild Card Contest and making post-season recognitions (hopefully, from both 2012 and 2013).

Following week - I will publish a FanPost updating KD's contest after the division round, report combination scores (my Wild Card Contest plus KD's contest), offer consolation picks (forget your loser picks and start over in the championship round - just for fun), and make any season reports that didn't make it into the second FanPost.

After that - I will make updates after the championship games and Super Bowl - either comments/reports on an existing page, or as a new FanPost.

Participation dropped again in week #17, as many who had played all sixteen weeks failed to play the final week. We did, however, add at least one new player every single week. Look at the right-hand column. "Total" went up every week this season for the first time.

Here's the final participation table:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 242 0 242
2 207 49 256
3 200 60 259
4 198 67 265
5 189 80 269
6 199 80 279
7 200 90 290
8 195 100 295
9 186 110 296
10 176 122 297
11 157 141 298
12 158 143 301
13 155 147 302
14 155 150 305
15 147 160 307
16 129 180 309
17 118 192 310

For the third year in a row, the Cowboys' season came down the same way, to a final win-and-in showdown against a division rival. Each year the final rival was different. The first two were on the road, and were for the #4 seed. This one was at home, and was for the #3 seed. Surely the results would be different. ~sigh~

We did much better picking week #17 than last year, as fewer used the Holiday Bonus #2 to post picks early, and more posted on KD's page. We went 6-2 as a consensus in the early games, and 7-0 in the late games, with a couple of narrow escapes keeping our scores up. Then came Sunday night.

Here's how we did this past week in each game:

Week #17 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
108 NEW ORLEANS Tampa Bay 1
102 NEW ENGLAND Buffalo 0
102 SEATTLE St. Louis 2
101 Denver OAKLAND 0
94 INDIANAPOLIS Jacksonville 1
90 Carolina ATLANTA 4
88 PITTSBURGH Cleveland 2
59 CINCINNATI Baltimore 3
55 TENNESSEE Houston 2
34 SAN DIEGO Kansas City 12
31 NEW YORK GIANTS Washington 3
27 San Francisco ARIZONA 20
27 Green Bay CHICAGO 22
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
37 Philadelphia DALLAS 81
3 New York Jets MIAMI 46
Win Pretty Even (we're indecisive) Lose
9 MINNESOTA Detroit 13

All through this season I have tracked our consensus skills at picking each team. There are certain teams that we almost always get right - because they're elite (we pick them to win, and they win), or because they're sorry (we pick them to lose, and they lose). Those are at the top of this chart.

There are other teams that have killed us repeatedly, disappointing us almost every week (we pick them to lose, and they win; we pick them to win, and they lose).

Twenty of these teams failed to make the playoffs. Eight will be in action this weekend, and eight next weekend. Will this table help us avoid mis-picking teams that we've mis-picked all year?

Here's a complete look at how we have picked each team, each week (first letter - our pick; second letter - actual result; again, a tie counts as a loss):

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Tennessee LW LL WW WW LL LL LL Bye WW WL LL WW LL LL LL WW WW 14 2
Denver WW WW WW WW WW WW WL WW Bye WW WW WL WW WW WL WW WW 13 3
Kansas City WW LW WW WW WW WW WW WW WW Bye LL WL LL WW WW WL LL 13 3
New York Giants LL LL WL LL LL LL WW LW Bye WW WW LL WW LL LL LW WW 13 3
Seattle WW LW WW WW LL WW WW WW WW WW WW Bye WW WL WW WL WW 13 3
Carolina LL LL LW Bye WL LW WW WW WW LW WW WW WW LL WW WW WW 12 4
New Orleans WW WW WW WW WW WL Bye WW WL LW WW WW LL WW WL LL WW 12 4
San Francisco WW WL WL WW WW WW WW WW Bye WL LL WW WW LW WW WW WW 12 4
St Louis WW LL LL LL WW LW LL LL LL LW Bye LW LL LL LW WW LL 12 4
Tampa Bay WL LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LW LW LW LL WW LL LL LL 12 4
Washington WL LL LL WW Bye LL LW LL LW WL LL LL LL LL LL LL LL 12 4
Houston WW WW WL LL LL WL LL Bye LL LL WL WL LL WL LL LL LL 11 5
Jacksonville LL LL LL LL LL LL LL LL Bye LW LL LW LW LW WL LL LL 11 5
Oakland LL WW LL LL LW LL Bye LW WL LL LW LL LL WL LL LL LL 11 5
Arizona LL LW LL WW LW LL LL LW Bye WW WW LW WL WW WW LW LL 10 6
Atlanta LL WW WL WL WL Bye WW WL LL LL WL LL LW LL WW LL LL 10 6
Cleveland WL LL LW LW WW LL LL LL LW Bye LL LL WL LL LL WL LL 10 6
Green Bay LL WW WL Bye WW WW WW WW WL WL LL WT LL WW LW WL WW 10 6
New England WW WW WW LW WL LW WL WW WW Bye LL LW WW WW WL WW WW 10 6
Baltimore LL WW LW WL LW LL WL Bye WL LW LL WW WW WW LW LL LL 9 7
Buffalo LL WW WL LW LL LL LW LL LL LL LW Bye WL LL LW LW LL 9 7
Dallas WW WL WW WL LL WW WW WL WW WL Bye WW WW WL WL WW WL 9 7
Indianapolis WW WL LW WW WW WL LW Bye WW WL WW WL WW LL WW LW WW 9 7
Chicago LW WW WW WL LL WW WL Bye LW LL WW WL WL LW WW WL LL 8 8
Minnesota LL LL WL LW Bye WL LL LL LL LW LL LT LW LL LW LL LW 8 8
Cincinnati WL WW LW WL LW WW LW WW WL WL WW Bye LW WW WL WW WW 7 9
Pittsburgh WL LL LL WL Bye LW LW WL LL WW LW WW LL WL LW LW WW 7 9
San Diego LL LW LL LW WL LW WW Bye WL LL WL LW WL WW LW WW WW 7 9
Detroit WW WL WW LW LL WW WL LW Bye WW WL WL WW WL WL WL WL 6 10
New York Jets LW LL LW LL LW WL LW LL LW Bye WL LL LL LW LL LW LW 6 10
Philadelphia LW WL LL LL WW WW LL WL LW LW WW Bye LW LW WL LW LW 6 10
Miami LW LW LW LL WL Bye WL LL LW WL LW LL WW LW LW WL WL 4 12
Total 316 196

Each week, One.Cool.Customer hosts a pick-em page (week #17 picks) where all the Front Page Writers offer picks in every game for the week. I track their consensus picks for each game and compare it to our consensus for each game.

This week, we had identical preferences in thirteen of the games. Ever hear that every vote counts? Yeah, last week. Well, hear it again this week. In two of the games, we had opposite preferences. Since we entered the weekend tied for the season, the sixteenth game would decide both the week and the overall season. We had a narrow preference for San Francisco over Arizona. Their eight writers were evenly split, and their internal tiebreaker gave their consensus preference to Arizona.

By that one tiebreaker, BTB consensus pickers defeat the FPWs for the first time over the entire season.

All season long, jstaubach posted picks for every game. Most weeks, he made a Thursday pick, then came in during the weekend and posted the rest of his ten. And, then, he posted picks on the "other" games (three-six other games that the rest of us were all too happy to avoid).

I promised him all season that I was going to tally his picks and compare how he did along with our consensus and the FPW consensus. Five weeks ago, I finally got them all counted, and he was outpicking all of the Front Page Writers.

Since then, I have reported his score, and he continually blew their picks away. On the week #17 pick-em (linked just above), their top three were close together - 151 for rabble, 150 for O.C.C, and 149 for Dave. If jstaubach hade been in their contest, he would have had an unsurmountable lead, with 156.

Well, both O.C.C and jstaubach closed with unprecedented 15-1 scores (no one has ever gone 16-0 on either the FPW contest or 10-for-10. O.C.C was actually 15-0 and only lost the Cowboys's heartbreaker, while jstaubach's miss was Miami (see above table; I learned to avoid any game with Miami). So, O.C.C came from behind and narrowly defeated rabble for the FPW championship (165-164), but none of them compared to our own jstaubach's 171 (average of ten wins a week - every week, including byes). Wow!

Qualifier - he did have an easier time; the FPWs had to turn their picks in on Wednesday for all games, so the Google could publish his page early on Thursday. Typically, jstaubach would post a Thursday-Only pick on Thursday, and then his other nine on Sunday morning, followed by his "other games". If there weren't a benefit to posting at the last minute, jstaubach (and many or you) wouldn't do it.

The next chart compares our 10-for-10 consensus with the Front Page Writers and jstaubach. The first column is the week of the season, the second column is how many games there were in a week (sixteen is normal; thirteen-fifteen when teams have byes), followed by our 10-for-10 wins, the FPW wins, and jstaubach's wins.

Here is that final 2013 table:

2013 10-for-10 Consensus / Front Page Writers / jstaubach
Week Games 10-for-10 Wins FPW Wins Jstaubach Wins
1 16 11 11 10
2 16 11 12 13
3 16 9 10 11
4 15 9 7 8
5 14 9 7 9
6 15 10 10 9
7 15 9 9 10
8 13 9 9 10
9 13 7 6 6
10 14 6 7 8
11 15 10 10 10
12 14 7 8 9
13 16 11 10 11
14 16 10 11 14
15 16 8 8 10
16 16 9 10 8
17 16 13 12 15
Total 256 158 157 171

Our average score this week went up significantly, to 8.2-for-10, and the largest groups scored 9-for-10 or 8-for-10. I am listing all 118 scores for this week, and the top 117 on the final overall leaderboard.

We entered Sunday night with thirty-six perfect 9-for-9 scorecards. So, unless the game ended in a tie, there would be some 10-for-10s this final week. Would there be a huge block of twenty-eight (including me) with a Cowboys win, or (~sigh~) eight get honored and recognized for picking the Eagles?

Congratulations to the eight who scored 10-for-10 in the final week of the season: Aggie Man, beastygaming, camrin55, CarloRue, lsttexas, Max2, Souna21, and Wreck'emCowboys. This was the first 10-for-10 for camrin55, CarloRue, lsttexas, Max2, Souna2, and Wreck'emCowboys. Moving up to the next wing of the Hall is beastygaming (his second); and, moving into a new Wing of Distinction is Aggie Man - the first to score four 10-for-10s.

The new wing was also the best place to recognize Mikellie's 2011 run of KD's playoff table. So, for now, they are the only occupants in the new wing. The Wing of Champions is now reserved for overall champions. BishopWest (2010), Jebediah Flibberbrush (2011), and CowboyBaby (2012) are now joined by this year's champion.

I will not steal KD's thunder by displaying the new Hall here. He will do that on his next post.

Carrying a precarious one-game lead into the final week was lsttexas. Since you see his name with the 10-for-10s, you may correctly assume that he stayed atop the leaderboard and is the champion.

However, let me share with you how close it was to being a shared championship. lsttexas and Realist Larry (one game back going into the final weekend) had identical picks on nine games, and opposite picks on the other. lsttexas had San Diego and Realist Larry had Kansas City. If you saw the end of that game, and how close Succop's field goal attempt in regulation was (just barely wide), that was not only how close Pittsburgh was to making the playoffs instead of the Chargers, it was also how close we were to having co-champions.

But, that's not what happened. The Chargers won in overtime, and lsttexas (not Realist Larry) finished 10-for-10 and is our new champion. He completed this tough season tied for the fourth highest score recorded in KD's contest, and is the first to score a 10-for-10 in the final week to clinch victory.

We now have one hundred one members of this year's Century Club (overall scores of at least 100).

Here are all of the scores this week, and the top scores on the overall leaderboard:

Top Scores Through Week #17
This Week Score This Week Score 2013 Overall Score 2013 Overall Score
Aggie Man 10 BigHat in NewTexas 8 lsttexas 125 meisternance 110
beastygaming 10 carguy102 8 Aggie Man 123 scotscowboyfan 110
camrin55 10 CDMac24 8 CarloRue 123 Yellowbeard 110
CarloRue 10 clearwall 8 JDobermans 123 CowboysBarry 109
lsttexas 10 cowdog 8 Max2 123 cwby4lf 109
Max2 10 cwby4lf 8 Realist Larry 123 Hookem Up 109
Souna21 10 damnarab2 8 nicomachus 122 Mikellie 109
Wreck'emCowboys 10 Farrah's Daddy 8 jstaubach 121 milehightexan 109
1Bullseye 9 ginge159 8 cowboy1966 120 Tennessee_Jed 109
BigBad Joe 9 Hookem Up 8 HonorTheStar 120 cowdog 107
BishopWest 9 Howleyesque 8 Jebediah Flibberbrush 120 damnarab2 107
bookiebuster 9 illcowboy 8 beastygaming 119 hookerhome 107
boys.camncrew 9 jockmeister 8 CowboyBaby 119 kethry1313 107
Bvanzanman 9 k@s! 8 Wreck'emCowboys 119 zigg6411 107
Canadian Cowboy_74 9 KD Drummond 8 bookiebuster 118 Howleyesque 106
cee-los 9 lucke 8 HLCJ69 118 MUTTS 106
Chad Loveland 9 makemyday 8 revellyre 118 NCHeelsBoysFan 106
ChrisMan 9 mbraunginn 8 illcowboy 117 Sandmann 106
Cowboy Joe 9 MSM33 8 One.Cool.Customer 117 Babygirl71 105
cowboy1966 9 mushpuppy 8 j-man 116 Dalai Luke 105
CowboysBarry 9 NCHeelsBoysFan 8 Lajitas Lava 116 jakezze01 105
cowboyswin 9 oldboysfan 8 Sean N 116 jazzbo251 105
DCB* 9 One.Cool.Customer 8 Souna21 115 KD Drummond 105
dsmith12 9 Sandmann 8 IRONRAVEN 115 Witten mittens 105
HLCJ69 9 scotscowboyfan 8 mikemc68 115 ibleedcowboyblue 104
HonorTheStar 9 Sean N 8 Tallgrass Prairie 115 k@s! 104
hookerhome 9 swanhooch 8 TheDemolitionDan 115 thepainster 104
jayrosser27 9 Tallgrass Prairie 8 Through Thick And Thin 115 Vector_41 104
jazzbo251 9 thepainster 8 camrin55 114 AnderJ86 103
Jdewey 9 Travlr 8 lucke 114 Bertangalo 103
JDobermans 9 Bertangalo 7 NorthStar99 114 Bvanzanman 103
Jebediah Flibberbrush 9 Gabby 7 Specific 114 Farrah's Daddy 103
j-man 9 geof 7 StarloverinWNC 114 Joe21 103
Joe21 9 Hobbes42 7 Useful_Idiot_ 114 Seatown7 103
jordanch68 9 ibleedcowboyblue 7 BigHat in NewTexas 113 Smax17177 103
jstaubach 9 IRONRAVEN 7 boys.camncrew 113 spur_for_life 103
kethry1313 9 LoboTX 7 DCB* 113 VictoryorDeath 102
Lajitas Lava 9 mdlusk 7 mushpuppy 113 YumaCactus 102
Mightytigers2000 9 Mikellie 7 Rajohnnn 113 behind.enemylines 101
mik888 9 nikeorlipstick 7 swanhooch 112 mbraunginn 101
mikemc68 9 NorthStar99 7 Canadian Cowboy_74 112 LoboTX 100
milehightexan 9 Rome One 7 CDMac24 112 slowmotion80 100
MosesArt 9 skinny post 7 dsmith12 112 cjbrit 99
MUTTS 9 slowmotion80 7 geof 112 Gabby 99
nicomachus 9 Smax17177 7 ginge159 112 jamesvb 99
Pasipple 9 Useful_Idiot_ 7 MSM33 112 Jessy S 99
pugbuddy 9 westmodelmarket 7 nikeorlipstick 112 since '66 99
Rajohnnn 9 Witten mittens 7 Pasipple 112 TwoBitWhackJob 98
Realist Larry 9 YumaCactus 7 Travlr 112 Vancity Cowboy 98
since '66 9 BoyfromOz 6 BigBad Joe 111 ketom1220 97
Specific 9 CowboyBaby 6 ChrisMan 111 Trent Schoneweis 97
StarloverinWNC 9 Jessy S 6 Cowboy Joe 111 EchoEcho 96
T Zig 9 meisternance 6 cowboyswin 111 iidacii 96
TheDemolitionDan 9 revellyre 6 mik888 111 Allan Uy 95
Through Thick And Thin 9 Tennessee_Jed 6 skinny post 111 makemyday 95
Yellowbeard 9 VictoryorDeath 6 1Bullseye 110 Rome One 95
AnderJ86 8 wildtigger2 6 cee-los 110 traceabides 95
Babygirl71 8 PhiAlphaHalos 5 jayrosser27 110 wildtigger2 95
Benthere 8 TwoBitWhackJob 5 mdlusk 110 3 tied with 94

You requested, and I have begun to list a comparison of our scores to previous years. Again, I don't have access to KD's 2010 records, but I can provide that comparison to 2011 and 2012. However, the different bye schedules, and the different week-to-week difficulties make a direct comparison fairly difficult.

Because of the way I maintain my records, it would be very time consuming to recreate 2011 and 2012 leaderboards after week #17. Rather than do that, I will name some of the top scores here, and give the links to my FanPosts from those weeks, so you can see my tables from 2011 - Week #17 and 2012 - Week #17.

For the third season in a row, the overall champion was also the leader after weeks #14-16.

Week #17 in 2011 began our current season-ending tradition of ending with a play-in game flexed to NBC after all the other games are decided. Jebediah Flibberbrush got measured for his crown, as he built his lead up to two games in week #16 and held on through the disappointment in the Meadowlands to win the overall title.

Top overall scores in 2011:

  • 126 - Jebediah Flibberbrush
  • 124 - illcowboy and Hookem Up
  • 123 - qbfannn (CowboyBaby) and Travlr
  • 122 - ziggy19
  • 120 - Specific
  • 119 - BigBad Joe, ChiaCrack (Archie Barberio), One.Cool.Customer, and scotscowboyfan

Week #17 in 2012 saw the continued dominance of CowboyBaby. After coming close in 2011, he changed his handle from qbfannn and was driven to win in 2012.

For the eighth week in a row, he was the overall leader, but ChrisMan picking the Redskins, closed with a 10-for-10 in week #17. CowboyBaby needed (and got) a 9-for-10 to hold off ChrisMan's charge and win the championship. His total of 128 is the record score for an overall champion.

Top overall scores in 2012:

  • 128 - CowboyBaby
  • 127 - ChrisMan
  • 125 - ziggy19
  • 124 - Hawkeye101 (Yellowbeard)
  • 122 - BishopWest
  • 121 - Jebediah Flibberbrush and krikaley
  • 120 - Aggie Man, jstaubach, mdlusk, mushpuppy, Nord15, and WA_Cowboy

Wild Card Contest:

Last year, twelve people got all four Wild Card Weekend picks correctly out of forty-seven players. In 2011, only one (ziggy19) went 4-for-4. Are you ready to give it a shot?

Here are the games. The last two years, the first playoff game was Cincinnati at Houston - same teams, same seeds (#5-#4), same location, and same result. This year, Kansas City-Indianapolis have that honor, as the AFC 4-5 seeds again begin the playoffs. Andy Reid takes the Chiefs on the road to play indoors at Indianapolis.

The second game is where the Cowboys should have been - a rematch of week #10, except this one at home instead of the Superdome. Instead, the Saints venture outdoors, where they have been less successful. Do you pull for them in the snow, or the NFC-East champion Eagles?

Sunday leads off with the Chargers - fortunate to escape the Chiefs and keep the Steelers home for the playoffs. One of the most memorable playoff games (and the coldest ever - colder wind chill than the Ice Bowl) was the 1981 AFC Championship Game played between the Chargers and Bengals - the famous Freezer Bowl.

The final game this weekend takes the 49ers to the frozen tundra. This matchup, like the other NFC matchup, has the team with the better record hitting the road in the first round.

There are five new playoff teams this year who were not part of last year's playoffs, replacing five who did not return. All are playing this weekend. The other seven participated last year. So, over half of the NFL (seventeen teams) participated in the playoffs last year and/or this year. Almost half (fifteen teams) did not. Note that the Cowboys were the last team eliminated in each of the past three years with control over their destiny. Last year, I said, "Maybe next season, the NFL can let the Cowboys close the regular season at home, instead of playing these elimination games on the road." They did. ~sigh~

Four AFC teams returned to the playoffs, while Kansas City and San Diego replaced Houston and Baltimore. Half of the NFC turned over again this year. Seattle, Green Bay, and San Francisco returned, and Minnesota, Atlanta, and Washington were replaced by Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Carolina.

Here is that breakdown:

  • 2012 - Atlanta, Minnesota, Washington, Baltimore, and Houston
  • 2013 - Carolina, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Kansas City, and San Diego
  • both - Green Bay, San Francisco, Seattle, Cincinnati, Denver, Indianapolis, and New England
  • neither - Arizona, Buffalo, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Jacksonville, Miami, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee

Are there any of these twelve teams that we would like to see holding the Lombardi in five weeks? Are there any that we don't want to see in the Super Bowl this year?

Here is the Wild Card Weekend lineup. Can you go 4-for-4?

Kansas City at INDIANAPOLIS

New Orleans at PHILADELPHIA

San Diego at CINCINNATI

San Francisco at GREEN BAY

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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