Here we go - again.
In 2011, at the close of the season, I wrote my Week #17 update with stats and comments from that closing heartbreaker and offering some statistics from the overall contest.
Then, later in the week, I offered a second FanPost after realizing what KD was offering as a Playoff Contest. In that second FanPost, and with his permission and blessing, I ran a contest to pick the Wild Card winners. Then, everyone migrated over to his Playoff Contest, and Mikellie made history.
Last year, I combined both my Week #17 Update and Wild Card Contest into one FanPost. It was like my "normal" weekly FanPosts - reports and tables from week #17, congratulations to that week's 10-for-10, and an update on the overall leaderboard.
I promised to do a later FanPost with all my awards and recognitions. Read 2011's final FanPost and let me know if there's anything else you would like to see. Some of the recognitions came as a result of a direct request from one or more of you. I'll be happy to research something for you and report there.
Unfortunately, I never got it done. CowboyBaby, I didn't forget you. I just never got to it. So, with apologies to CowboyBaby and other leaders from last season, here is my intention for my final 10-for-10 FanPosts of this season.
This FanPost - my final weekly report from this season and the Wild Card Contest (make picks here this week):
Next week - KD will publish his Playoff Contest (Division Round through Super Bowl), crown the 2013 champion, and recognize the new (and upgraded) members of the Hall of Fame. I will publish a FanPost recognizing winners from this week's Wild Card Contest and making post-season recognitions (hopefully, from both 2012 and 2013).
Following week - I will publish a FanPost updating KD's contest after the division round, report combination scores (my Wild Card Contest plus KD's contest), offer consolation picks (forget your loser picks and start over in the championship round - just for fun), and make any season reports that didn't make it into the second FanPost.
After that - I will make updates after the championship games and Super Bowl - either comments/reports on an existing page, or as a new FanPost.
Participation dropped again in week #17, as many who had played all sixteen weeks failed to play the final week. We did, however, add at least one new player every single week. Look at the right-hand column. "Total" went up every week this season for the first time.
Here's the final participation table:
|Week||Played This Week||Missed This Week||Total|
For the third year in a row, the Cowboys' season came down the same way, to a final win-and-in showdown against a division rival. Each year the final rival was different. The first two were on the road, and were for the #4 seed. This one was at home, and was for the #3 seed. Surely the results would be different. ~sigh~
We did much better picking week #17 than last year, as fewer used the Holiday Bonus #2 to post picks early, and more posted on KD's page. We went 6-2 as a consensus in the early games, and 7-0 in the late games, with a couple of narrow escapes keeping our scores up. Then came Sunday night.
Here's how we did this past week in each game:
|Week #17 Results (Home in CAPS)|
|Win||Winners (we're great)||Lose|
|108||NEW ORLEANS||Tampa Bay||1|
|34||SAN DIEGO||Kansas City||12|
|31||NEW YORK GIANTS||Washington||3|
|Win||Losers (we're bleep)||Lose|
|3||New York Jets||MIAMI||46|
|Win||Pretty Even (we're indecisive)||Lose|
All through this season I have tracked our consensus skills at picking each team. There are certain teams that we almost always get right - because they're elite (we pick them to win, and they win), or because they're sorry (we pick them to lose, and they lose). Those are at the top of this chart.
There are other teams that have killed us repeatedly, disappointing us almost every week (we pick them to lose, and they win; we pick them to win, and they lose).
Twenty of these teams failed to make the playoffs. Eight will be in action this weekend, and eight next weekend. Will this table help us avoid mis-picking teams that we've mis-picked all year?
Here's a complete look at how we have picked each team, each week (first letter - our pick; second letter - actual result; again, a tie counts as a loss):
|Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week|
|Team||Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4||Wk 5||Wk 6||Wk 7||Wk 8||Wk 9||Wk 10||Wk 11||Wk 12||Wk 13||Wk 14||Wk 15||Wk 16||Wk 17||W||L|
|New York Giants||LL||LL||WL||LL||LL||LL||WW||LW||Bye||WW||WW||LL||WW||LL||LL||LW||WW||13||3|
|New York Jets||LW||LL||LW||LL||LW||WL||LW||LL||LW||Bye||WL||LL||LL||LW||LL||LW||LW||6||10|
Each week, One.Cool.Customer hosts a pick-em page (week #17 picks) where all the Front Page Writers offer picks in every game for the week. I track their consensus picks for each game and compare it to our consensus for each game.
This week, we had identical preferences in thirteen of the games. Ever hear that every vote counts? Yeah, last week. Well, hear it again this week. In two of the games, we had opposite preferences. Since we entered the weekend tied for the season, the sixteenth game would decide both the week and the overall season. We had a narrow preference for San Francisco over Arizona. Their eight writers were evenly split, and their internal tiebreaker gave their consensus preference to Arizona.
By that one tiebreaker, BTB consensus pickers defeat the FPWs for the first time over the entire season.
All season long, jstaubach posted picks for every game. Most weeks, he made a Thursday pick, then came in during the weekend and posted the rest of his ten. And, then, he posted picks on the "other" games (three-six other games that the rest of us were all too happy to avoid).
I promised him all season that I was going to tally his picks and compare how he did along with our consensus and the FPW consensus. Five weeks ago, I finally got them all counted, and he was outpicking all of the Front Page Writers.
Since then, I have reported his score, and he continually blew their picks away. On the week #17 pick-em (linked just above), their top three were close together - 151 for rabble, 150 for O.C.C, and 149 for Dave. If jstaubach hade been in their contest, he would have had an unsurmountable lead, with 156.
Well, both O.C.C and jstaubach closed with unprecedented 15-1 scores (no one has ever gone 16-0 on either the FPW contest or 10-for-10. O.C.C was actually 15-0 and only lost the Cowboys's heartbreaker, while jstaubach's miss was Miami (see above table; I learned to avoid any game with Miami). So, O.C.C came from behind and narrowly defeated rabble for the FPW championship (165-164), but none of them compared to our own jstaubach's 171 (average of ten wins a week - every week, including byes). Wow!
Qualifier - he did have an easier time; the FPWs had to turn their picks in on Wednesday for all games, so the Google could publish his page early on Thursday. Typically, jstaubach would post a Thursday-Only pick on Thursday, and then his other nine on Sunday morning, followed by his "other games". If there weren't a benefit to posting at the last minute, jstaubach (and many or you) wouldn't do it.
The next chart compares our 10-for-10 consensus with the Front Page Writers and jstaubach. The first column is the week of the season, the second column is how many games there were in a week (sixteen is normal; thirteen-fifteen when teams have byes), followed by our 10-for-10 wins, the FPW wins, and jstaubach's wins.
Here is that final 2013 table:
|2013 10-for-10 Consensus / Front Page Writers / jstaubach|
|Week||Games||10-for-10 Wins||FPW Wins||Jstaubach Wins|
Our average score this week went up significantly, to 8.2-for-10, and the largest groups scored 9-for-10 or 8-for-10. I am listing all 118 scores for this week, and the top 117 on the final overall leaderboard.
We entered Sunday night with thirty-six perfect 9-for-9 scorecards. So, unless the game ended in a tie, there would be some 10-for-10s this final week. Would there be a huge block of twenty-eight (including me) with a Cowboys win, or (~sigh~) eight get honored and recognized for picking the Eagles?
Congratulations to the eight who scored 10-for-10 in the final week of the season: Aggie Man, beastygaming, camrin55, CarloRue, lsttexas, Max2, Souna21, and Wreck'emCowboys. This was the first 10-for-10 for camrin55, CarloRue, lsttexas, Max2, Souna2, and Wreck'emCowboys. Moving up to the next wing of the Hall is beastygaming (his second); and, moving into a new Wing of Distinction is Aggie Man - the first to score four 10-for-10s.
The new wing was also the best place to recognize Mikellie's 2011 run of KD's playoff table. So, for now, they are the only occupants in the new wing. The Wing of Champions is now reserved for overall champions. BishopWest (2010), Jebediah Flibberbrush (2011), and CowboyBaby (2012) are now joined by this year's champion.
I will not steal KD's thunder by displaying the new Hall here. He will do that on his next post.
Carrying a precarious one-game lead into the final week was lsttexas. Since you see his name with the 10-for-10s, you may correctly assume that he stayed atop the leaderboard and is the champion.
However, let me share with you how close it was to being a shared championship. lsttexas and Realist Larry (one game back going into the final weekend) had identical picks on nine games, and opposite picks on the other. lsttexas had San Diego and Realist Larry had Kansas City. If you saw the end of that game, and how close Succop's field goal attempt in regulation was (just barely wide), that was not only how close Pittsburgh was to making the playoffs instead of the Chargers, it was also how close we were to having co-champions.
But, that's not what happened. The Chargers won in overtime, and lsttexas (not Realist Larry) finished 10-for-10 and is our new champion. He completed this tough season tied for the fourth highest score recorded in KD's contest, and is the first to score a 10-for-10 in the final week to clinch victory.
We now have one hundred one members of this year's Century Club (overall scores of at least 100).
Here are all of the scores this week, and the top scores on the overall leaderboard:
|Top Scores Through Week #17|
|This Week||Score||This Week||Score||2013 Overall||Score||2013 Overall||Score|
|Aggie Man||10||BigHat in NewTexas||8||lsttexas||125||meisternance||110|
|Max2||10||cwby4lf||8||Realist Larry||123||Hookem Up||109|
|BigBad Joe||9||Hookem Up||8||HonorTheStar||120||cowdog||107|
|Canadian Cowboy_74||9||KD Drummond||8||bookiebuster||118||Howleyesque||106|
|HonorTheStar||9||Sean N||8||Tallgrass Prairie||115||k@s!||104|
|jayrosser27||9||Tallgrass Prairie||8||Through Thick And Thin||115||Vector_41||104|
|Jebediah Flibberbrush||9||Gabby||7||Specific||114||Farrah's Daddy||103|
|jordanch68||9||ibleedcowboyblue||7||BigHat in NewTexas||113||Smax17177||103|
|Realist Larry||9||YumaCactus||7||Travlr||112||Vancity Cowboy||98|
|since '66||9||BoyfromOz||6||BigBad Joe||111||ketom1220||97|
|StarloverinWNC||9||Jessy S||6||Cowboy Joe||111||EchoEcho||96|
|Through Thick And Thin||9||Tennessee_Jed||6||skinny post||111||makemyday||95|
|Benthere||8||TwoBitWhackJob||5||mdlusk||110||3 tied with||94|
You requested, and I have begun to list a comparison of our scores to previous years. Again, I don't have access to KD's 2010 records, but I can provide that comparison to 2011 and 2012. However, the different bye schedules, and the different week-to-week difficulties make a direct comparison fairly difficult.
Because of the way I maintain my records, it would be very time consuming to recreate 2011 and 2012 leaderboards after week #17. Rather than do that, I will name some of the top scores here, and give the links to my FanPosts from those weeks, so you can see my tables from 2011 - Week #17 and 2012 - Week #17.
For the third season in a row, the overall champion was also the leader after weeks #14-16.
Week #17 in 2011 began our current season-ending tradition of ending with a play-in game flexed to NBC after all the other games are decided. Jebediah Flibberbrush got measured for his crown, as he built his lead up to two games in week #16 and held on through the disappointment in the Meadowlands to win the overall title.
Top overall scores in 2011:
- 126 - Jebediah Flibberbrush
- 124 - illcowboy and Hookem Up
- 123 - qbfannn (CowboyBaby) and Travlr
- 122 - ziggy19
- 120 - Specific
- 119 - BigBad Joe, ChiaCrack (Archie Barberio), One.Cool.Customer, and scotscowboyfan
Week #17 in 2012 saw the continued dominance of CowboyBaby. After coming close in 2011, he changed his handle from qbfannn and was driven to win in 2012.
For the eighth week in a row, he was the overall leader, but ChrisMan picking the Redskins, closed with a 10-for-10 in week #17. CowboyBaby needed (and got) a 9-for-10 to hold off ChrisMan's charge and win the championship. His total of 128 is the record score for an overall champion.
Top overall scores in 2012:
- 128 - CowboyBaby
- 127 - ChrisMan
- 125 - ziggy19
- 124 - Hawkeye101 (Yellowbeard)
- 122 - BishopWest
- 121 - Jebediah Flibberbrush and krikaley
- 120 - Aggie Man, jstaubach, mdlusk, mushpuppy, Nord15, and WA_Cowboy
Wild Card Contest:
Last year, twelve people got all four Wild Card Weekend picks correctly out of forty-seven players. In 2011, only one (ziggy19) went 4-for-4. Are you ready to give it a shot?
Here are the games. The last two years, the first playoff game was Cincinnati at Houston - same teams, same seeds (#5-#4), same location, and same result. This year, Kansas City-Indianapolis have that honor, as the AFC 4-5 seeds again begin the playoffs. Andy Reid takes the Chiefs on the road to play indoors at Indianapolis.
The second game is where the Cowboys should have been - a rematch of week #10, except this one at home instead of the Superdome. Instead, the Saints venture outdoors, where they have been less successful. Do you pull for them in the snow, or the NFC-East champion Eagles?
Sunday leads off with the Chargers - fortunate to escape the Chiefs and keep the Steelers home for the playoffs. One of the most memorable playoff games (and the coldest ever - colder wind chill than the Ice Bowl) was the 1981 AFC Championship Game played between the Chargers and Bengals - the famous Freezer Bowl.
The final game this weekend takes the 49ers to the frozen tundra. This matchup, like the other NFC matchup, has the team with the better record hitting the road in the first round.
There are five new playoff teams this year who were not part of last year's playoffs, replacing five who did not return. All are playing this weekend. The other seven participated last year. So, over half of the NFL (seventeen teams) participated in the playoffs last year and/or this year. Almost half (fifteen teams) did not. Note that the Cowboys were the last team eliminated in each of the past three years with control over their destiny. Last year, I said, "Maybe next season, the NFL can let the Cowboys close the regular season at home, instead of playing these elimination games on the road." They did. ~sigh~
Four AFC teams returned to the playoffs, while Kansas City and San Diego replaced Houston and Baltimore. Half of the NFC turned over again this year. Seattle, Green Bay, and San Francisco returned, and Minnesota, Atlanta, and Washington were replaced by Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Carolina.
Here is that breakdown:
- 2012 - Atlanta, Minnesota, Washington, Baltimore, and Houston
- 2013 - Carolina, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Kansas City, and San Diego
- both - Green Bay, San Francisco, Seattle, Cincinnati, Denver, Indianapolis, and New England
- neither - Arizona, Buffalo, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Jacksonville, Miami, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee
Are there any of these twelve teams that we would like to see holding the Lombardi in five weeks? Are there any that we don't want to see in the Super Bowl this year?
Here is the Wild Card Weekend lineup. Can you go 4-for-4?
Kansas City at INDIANAPOLIS
New Orleans at PHILADELPHIA
San Diego at CINCINNATI
San Francisco at GREEN BAY