FanPost

I Did the Math - 2014 Edition - Part 2

Finally, I get a chance to continue my I Did the Math series. It seems a long time since Part 1 (twelve days, written right after most week #14 games). This one is just before most week #15 games. I intended to have it up yesterday, so I am writing it from that perspective - as if the Saturday games hadn't happened.

[Just as last week's results failed to invalidate my math, neither did today's PHI-WAS game.]

For review, here are links to previous I Did the Math FanPosts. I invite you to (re)read them, and the comments, so you can get an idea of my perspective for writing these FanPosts.

Last week, I offered the observation that STL, though mathematically alive, was not a factor. They would have had to have won out to finish 9-7, and hope that three other 9-4 teams lost out to also finish 9-7. That was unlikely to happen, and that scenario ended three days later when the Rams lost to the Cardinals (back in their former home city).

The other observation was that SF, though more alive, was in full free fall and unlikely to be a factor either. That was also proven correct when they lost to SEA and were eliminated from playoff consideration.

My observation was correct that by the weekend we would be looking at six teams battling for five playoff positions - the three division championships (East, North, and West), and the two wild cards. One of these six would not make the playoffs:

  • East - DAL/PHI
  • North - DET/GB
  • West - ARI/SEA

The scenario I portrayed last week had the Cowboys claiming the #1 seed and the Eagles being eliminated. Because of the NFC East's walk through the AFC South, the Cowboys and Eagles looked to come out short on tiebreakers with teams from other divisions. All their losses were conference losses, so they stood to lose out on any tiebreakers involving conference record. Whoever lost the East was likely to miss the playoffs.

For my scenario to continue to come true, these events still need to happen:

  • Cowboys win out - finish 12-4
  • Seahawks win out - finish 12-4
  • Packers or Lions both lose at least once (they play each other in week #17, so next Sunday's winner must also lose in week #16) and each finish 11-5 or worse (one as champ, and one as wild card)

That scenario would have the Cowboys atop the NFC with Seattle having the other bye. The North champ would be #3, and the South champ would be #4. Arizona and the South runner-up would be wild cards, and the Eagles - even at 11-5 - would miss the playoffs if the South runner-up were also 11-5.

The Cowboys are not out of the woods. They could still miss the playoffs, even if the Eagles lost to the Redskins today. Let me explain "magic numbers" (a term mostly used in baseball). A team's magic number is the combination of its wins and its rival's losses that would eliminate the rival.

After last Sunday, the Cowboys magic number was two. Any combination of Cowboys wins and Eagles losses totaling two would clinch the division (two Cowboys wins, a Cowboys win and Eagles loss, or two Eagles losses). The Eagles also have a magic number, but involves circumstances out of their control. Their magic number is three (two Cowboys losses plus one Eagles win, or one Cowboys loss plus two Eagles wins).

[UPDATE - even though the Eagles lost this afternoon, their magic number is still mathematically viable - Cowboys lose both and Eagles beat the Giants. That would give both teams 10-6 records and the Eagles a better division record.]

Let me look at each NFC division (except the South; I don't care who survives that quagmire for this exercise; the winner will be #4), and the scenarios facing each team.

NFC East (before any week #16 games):

DAL - 10-4-0 - remaining games - vs IND, at WAS; Cowboys control destiny for division and #3 seed; mathematically alive for #1, #2, #3, #5, #6, and can miss the playoffs

  • 12-4-0 - W-W clinches the East and at least the #3 seed
  • 11-5-0 - W-L or L-W only clinches the East if PHI loses once; Cowboys miss the playoffs if SEA, GB, and DET all finish 11-5 or better AND PHI wins the division at 11-5
  • 10-6-0 - L-L only clinches the East if PHI loses twice; Cowboys miss the playoffs if Eagles finish 10-6 or better (Cowboys lose all wild card tiebreakers with one exception - if DAL and SEA finish in a two-way tie for #6 wild card at 10-6)

PHI - 9-5-0 - remaining games - at WAS, at NYG; Eagles need help to make the playoffs, either to win the division or to be a wild card; mathematically alive for #3, #6

  • 11-5-0 - W-W only clinches the East and #3 seed if DAL loses at least once; Eagles miss the playoffs if SEA, DET, and DET all finish 11-5 or better
  • 10-6-0 - W-L or L-W only clinches the East if DAL loses twice; Eagles cannot be a wild card because SEA, GB, and DET all will finish 10-6 or better and all own tiebreakers over the Eagles
  • 9-7-0 - L-L eliminates the Eagles from playoff consideration

NFC North (before any week #16 games):

DET - 10-4-0 - remaining games - at CHI, at GB; Lions control destiny for division and #3 seed; mathematically alive for #1, #2, #3, #5, #6, and can miss the playoffs

  • 12-4-0 - W-W clinches the North and at least the #2 seed
  • 11-5-0 - L-W clinches the North; W-L only clinches North if GB loses at TB; Lions can finish no worse than a #6 wild card at 11-5
  • 10-6-0 - L-L hands GB the North; Lions only miss the playoffs if both DAL and PHI finish 11-5 or better

GB - 10-4-0 - remaining games - at TB, vs DET; Packers also control destiny for division and #3 seed; mathematically alive for #1, #2, #3, #5, #6, and can miss the playoffs

  • 12-4-0 - W-W clinches the North and at least the #2 seed
  • 11-5-0 - L-W clinches the North; W-L only clinches the East if DET loses at CHI; Packers can finish no worse than a #6 wild card at 11-5
  • 10-6-0 - L-L hands DET the North; Packers only miss the playoffs if both DAL and PHI finish 11-5 or better, or if GB ties with DAL (or DAL and SEA)

NFC West (before any week #16 games):

ARI - 11-3-0 - remaining games - vs SEA, at SF; Cardinals control destiny for division and #1 seed; mathematically alive #1, #2, #3, #5; Cardinals cannot finish #6 and have clinched a playoff berth

  • 13-3-0 - W-W clinches the West and the #1 seed
  • 12-4-0 - W-L clinches the West and the #1 seed; or L-W only clinches the West and #1 seed if SEA loses at STL; otherwise, Cardinals finish as #5 wild card
  • 11-5-0 - L-L hands SEA the West; Cardinals finish as #5 wild card

SEA - 10-4-0 - remaining games - at ARI, vs STL; Seahawks control destiny for division and the #2 seed; mathematically alive for #1, #2, #3, #5, #6, and can miss the playoffs

  • 12-4-0 - W-W clinches the West and #2 seed (if tied with only DAL at 12-4); otherwise, #1 seed (win all three-team tiebreakers with NFC-N and NFC-E champs, and two-way with DET or GB)
  • 11-5-0 - W-L only clinches the West if ARI loses at SF; L-W hands West to ARI and clinched #5 wild card
  • 10-6-0 - L-L only eliminates the Seahawks from playoffs if DAL finished L-L to tie for #6 wild card; otherwise, Seahawks make playoffs as #5 or #6 depending on other two-way or three-way scenarios

[UPDATE - again, I intended to publish the above before any Saturday games took place. Since PHI-WAS is final, here are things mentioned above that can no longer happen.]

Since PHI lost to WAS today:

  • PHI can no longer be a wild card; their only path to the playoffs is to win the East (beat NYG while DAL loses to IND and at WAS)
  • DET clinch a playoff berth, as their worst possible finish (10-6) will still win tiebreakers with either DAL or PHI for a wild card
  • GB doesn't clinch on Saturday, as their worst possible finish (10-6) will win tiebreakers including PHI for a wild card, but lose tiebreakers including DAL and/or SEA
  • DAL doesn't clinch on Saturday, but only has one way to miss the playoffs - lose out (10-6) and lose the East to PHI (win at NYG to also finish 10-6); Cowboys would lose all wild card tiebreakers including DET, but not involving SEA and/or GB
  • SEA doesn't clinch, but only has one way to miss the playoffs - lose out (10-6) and finish in a two-way tie with DAL (also losing out to 10-6) for the #6 wild card
  • DAL will clinch the East AND eliminate PHI by: beating IND on Sunday (or, by beating WAS, or PHI loses to NYG in week #17)

After this weekend's games, I expect a Merry Christmas, as PHI is eliminated, DAL clinches the division, and next weekend has up to three NFC divisions jockeying for championships (but not the East).

Next week - Part 3 - should be simpler as I focus on each seeding possibility. I may also include the NFC South options (if not already clinched) and what remains to be decided in the AFC.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.