The PodCast is here. I'll link the video when it's uploaded. SBNation doesn't like Sound Cloud :( The first 10 minutes or so are ab libed discussion over the first couple paragraphs listed here.
Let's pick up where I was - developing a Dallas Cowboys Player Template from the 2013 draft using combine data - with the defensive ends - but first, let's address the Dallas coaching situation and the Superb Owl.
Confusion in Cowboys Fanbase land
I have lots to share about the 2013 Defensive End Class
but will post that later.
The news up in Dallas paints a picture where there are 5 coaches for 3 positions.
It's very confusing as a fan.
Dallas was last in defense in 2013 while Seattle was first. Cowboys have a long way to go. Wilson Luck and Kapernick also help their franchises with cheap contracts. I wonder if this is the end of the 100 million dollar quarter back
I was shown that the 2013 Dallas Cowboys Draft Board was leaked, at least rounds 1-5. Was it really leaked? Considering Dallas skipped Sharrif Floyd, I can imagine that the board was updated in the time between the photos and the actual draft. If the photo is from the Day of the Draft, then well what the hell can I say. Dallas shouldn't aspire to be Machiavellian in it's decision making, conniving the draft board and skipping top 5 players. but what ever, let's get the the Defensive Ends.
Most Dallas fans want to see some defensive ends drafted, like two minimum. It's definitely a position of interest. Based on what I've seen looking over the combine data, I predict that Dallas projects players like Tyrone Crawford as a 3 tech and Ben Bass currently as a 1. Excepting the unlikely return of Anthony Spencer, Dallas currently has under contract what it ended the season with. Selvie, Ware and Everette Brown. For all the players involved a rotation would be best. Ware is aging, Selvie and Brown are never going to be the all-pros we need to win superbowls running a 4-3 defense.
The leaked draftboard I'm citing (http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/5/30/4378574/dallas-cowboys-2013-draft-board-leaked-almost-complete-7-round-board) is here.
Because the DE position is such a position of interest I thought I'd start there. I'm going to set the ground floor by finding the lowest performer in every combine score, and project that as the lowest possible score needed to be a DE in Dallas.
These players were on the Dallas board at DE in 2013:
Dion Jordan, DE
Ezekiel Ansah, DE
Bjoern Werner, DE
Margus Hunt, DE
Datone Jones, DE
Damontre Moore, DE
Corey Lemonier, DE
Lavar Edwards, DE
Mike Buchanon, DE
Connie Washington, DE
Alex Okafor, DE
Malliciah Goodman, DE
Jamie Collins, DE *
Tank Carradine, DE *
Brandon Jenkins, DE *
The last three were not at the combine, so their numbers are discarded.
The numbers I'm looking at are Height, Weight, 40 time, Lifts, Vertical Jump, Broad Jump, 20 yard SS, and the 3 cone.
The two shortest players are 75 inches
The lightest player is 248 lbs
DeMontre Moore's terrible combine still haunts him, he has the slowest 40 at 4.95
He also only had 12 lifts. The next closest player had 20 lifts
31 Inch vertical is the lowest (Werner)
Broad jump 111" (Werner)
4.51 was the high at SS (2 players, Hunt and Edwards -- note that 4.26 was the low (Ansah)
7.32 was the low at 3 cone
Knowing some off hand things that I know - it's extremely rare for an elite edge pass rusher to emerge who doesn't have elite Short Shuttle time - sub 4.2 OR at least elite power numbers - like a 39" vert, 10'5 broad jump and 30 lifts. This edge pass rushing class actually projects as a collection of back ups from my own anecdotal experience following the draft.
So these are the numbers - the athletic floor of the DEs on Dallas' Board:
I'm tempted to throw out Moore's 12 lifts and 4.95 since his numbers are so different, and there is a well known infatuation with players from Texas by the Cowboys (Wayne McGarity and Dat Nguyen in the same draft ring a bell? Jerry's love for Big 12 hero Dez), but since I'm being clinical in getting these numbers, I'll will remain loyal to the numbers I have.
Ok lets look and see what players at the combine bested those scores but were not on Dallas' Draft Board:
All of them. Especially thanks to low performers like Werner and Moore, every other DE was able to be competitive with them.
It's like there was no correlation between your combine numbers and being on the board. If you were at the combine and listed as a Defensive End, there was a 50% chance you were on the Cowboys Board. So any correlation between what the scouts see and what the numbers told us seem completely spurious, at least using this approach of eliminating players with red flags. If Damontre Moore didn't raise a red flag, then that's that.
Ok left with this knowledge next time I'm going to gather data on the player's college productivity and game's played, and see if those numbers will tell us the tale of who made Dallas' draft board. DaMontre Moore had an awesome Junior year in Aggieland. I have a hypothesis that goes something like - DE athletic measurables are the number 1 guide to projecting success, but college production can overcome problems (in Dallas's view). If a guy hits a certain threshold of sacks and tackles and game starts in a major program, he won't be removed from the draft board. Otherwise, the normal template applies and the search for size speed guys continues.
Tell next time
Well that was the plan before the SuperBowl. I actually thought denver would win. Now we know that it's going to take more than a little improvement to fix the D. Denver was an all time great Offense and the Seahawks now have an all time great defense. We saw who won that. For Dallas to catch up we also need something like an all time defense.