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Using the Jahnke Value Model to measure the front office

JVM 2014

On indicator of how well the front office did last year is the Jahnke Value Model (JVM). PFF has created a model that matches the production of each player to their cap hit.

The Basic Idea

We set out to take the highest cap hit at a position and match that up with that position’s highest-rated player. Then take the second-highest cap hit and match it with the second-highest-graded player, and so on. All players who were either active or inactive for at least one regular season game were included, and players who spent the entire year on Injured Reserve or as free agents were ignored. The goal being to set salaries right, based solely on player performance during the 2013 season.

PFF measured and evaluated each team and for each position group.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/02/24/jahnke-value-model-primer/

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/03/04/jvm-dallas-cowboys/

PFF summary for Dallas

The Cowboys’ +$13m value differential falls just about in line with their 8-8 record last season. What helped push that number over the top was the fact that the players that were really terrible weren’t being paid much. Anthony Spencer was the only real dud of a contract, but injuries happen to every team and that’s a risk you have to assume when paying high-level players. The Cowboys are going to have a tough time making it back to this positive level next season though with players like Demarcus Ware and Miles Austin getting large escalations in their cap hits.

The following table shows the relative JVM for each team and its record for last year. Generally the teams that got the most value out of their players had the best records and those who did not get value had worse records. Several teams stand out, MIAMI, BUFFALO, DETROIT and DALLAS. Miami was well known for its internal issues. Dallas had a huge injury problem.

Indianapolis did much better than the JVM would indicate. Partially that is an indicator of the division that they played in and the value of a QB Luck still on his rookie contract. Yet the value for the team is poor.
This is a concerning number for Indianapolis. It’s troubling because of the vast amounts of free agents that the Colts overvalued recently. Recent free agents Ahmad Bradshaw, Erik Walden,Darrius Heyward-Bey, Mike McGlynn, Matt Hasselbeck, Donald Thomas, Ricky Jean-Francois, Samson Satele, Greg Toler, and LaRon Landry all had value differentials of over $1m. Now some of those were due to injury, but teams can’t afford that many non-impact free agents for too long. For the Colts to get their differential into positive numbers they must get more production from their free agent signings.

TEAM.....JVM...........Record

CAR.....+42.9..........12-04

DEN.....+41.5..........13-03

PHI.....+37.0..........10-06

SEA.....+27.5...........13-03

MIA.....+26.9..........08-08

NO......+21.2............11-05

BUF.....+18.1..........06-10

DET.....+17.2..........07-09

CIN.....+16.6..........11-05

DAL....+13.0........08-08

ARZ.....+11.7..........10-06

KC......+10.4..........11-05

SF.......+08.1...........12-04

NE......+04.6..........12-04

CLV....+03.2..........04-12

SD......+00.6..........09-07

NYJ.....-00.7..........08-08

OAK.....-01.8..........04-12

WAS.....-05.4.........03-13

TEN.....-05.5..........07-09

BLT.....-13.5..........08-08

PIT.....-16.2..........08-08

TB......-19.1............04-12

HOU...-20.7..........02-14

GB......-21.6..........08-07-01

STL.....-22.2..........07-09

IND.....-23.1..........11-05

NYG.....-24.6..........07-09

ATL.....-25.2..........04-12

MIN.....-27.2..........05-10-01

CHI.....-31.6..........08-08

JAX.....-40.5..........04-12

By Position Undervalued

6. DeMarco Murray.....Cap: $0.8m; JVM: $6.9m; Value Differential: +$6.1M

9. Tyron Smith..............Cap: $3.4m; JVM: $7.3m; Value Differential: +$3.9m

8. Jason Hatcher..........Cap: $2.6M; JVM: $7.7m; Value Differential: +$5.1M

2. Travis Frederick.......Cap: $1.2m; JVM: $5.2m, Value Differential: +$4.0m

Overvalued

3. Anthony Spencer, Cap: $10.6m, JVM: $100k, Value Differential: -$10.5m

Conclusion

Dallas has continued to upgrade the talent on the team. Yet injuries took a major toll the last two years. If the team is healthy, one should see the record improve significantly

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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