"Spoiled for Choice"
It’s draft day and the first 15 picks go down like this:
|PIT||Louis Nix III||DT|
Choices abound for Dallas. Majority favorite Aaron Donald has made it to 16! So too has Zack Martin, Mike Evans and Johnny Football, each intriguing picks in their own right.
The second after the Steelers hand in their pick for Nix, the phones start ringing off the hook in Dallas’ War Room. Within moments, 3 separate trade offers materialize:
1) HOUSTON offers the first pick in Round 2 (33rd overall) plus next year’s 1st round pick in exchange for pick 16.
Pros: Good value for Dallas. Even if Houston wins the Super Bowl next year, Dallas will come out ahead: 1000 pts vs. 1170 (580 + 590). Plus, having 2 first round picks in any draft gives you great leverage and maneuverability.
Cons: You’re giving up a bird in the hand for two in the bush, even if the bushes in question are particularly nice. Word on the street is that this year’s draft is better/deeper than next year’s given all the underclassmen who declared. You’re dropping out of the first round entirely.
2) CLEVELAND offers their second first round pick (26th overall), plus 2 third round picks (71st and 83rd overall) in exchange for pick 16.
Pros: More picks is better than less picks, particularly in a deep draft, and especially when they’re all in the top 100. You could get more prospects or even package some of those picks later to move back into the second or even the first round. Plus, you’re not dropping out of the first entirely, there will still be good players available at 26.
Cons: While still in Dallas’ favor, the value is likely the ‘worst’ of the three available deals: 1000 pts vs. 1110 (700 + 235 + 175). While 26th overall is still in the first round, the guys you really covet (e.g. Donald) will likely be gone.
3) MIAMI offers their second round pick (50th overall), a sixth round pick (178th overall), and in a surprising move, Dion Jordan in exchange for pick 16!
Pros: if you consider Jordan’s value equal to the third overall pick (which is where he was selected a year ago), then this trade is LOPSIDEDELY in Dallas’ favor: 1000 pts vs. 2621.2 (2200 + 400 + 21.2). Jordan fits an area of need (edge rusher) and will have the best opportunity to realize his vast potential under the tutelage of d-line whisperer Rod Marinelli. In addition to Jordan, you also get a juicy 2nd round pick (50th overall) and fill the 6th round hole in Dallas’ ledger, giving you the flexibility to maneuver that comes with being in play each round of the draft.
Cons: Jordan sure didn’t light the world on fire in Miami last year. What if he’s a colossal bust? You drop out of the first round entirely and don’t pick a player until pick 47. That’s a lot of good players off the board before you even get your first bite at the apple.
The clock is ticking. Your 15 minutes is almost up. What do you do?