In this fourth edition of our mock draft database, we take a peek at 40 different mock drafts by some of the better known draftniks on the interwebs to figure out what the consensus has to say about the top candidates for the Cowboys' first-round pick.
In those 40 mocks, we've looked at 12 different players - all of whom were mocked to the Cowboys at some point - to see what the prospect landscape for the Cowboys will look like. Of those 12 prospects, exactly half are known pre-draft visitors to Valley Ranch (Anthony Barr, Aaron Donald, Zack Martin, Timmy Jernigan, Kony Ealy, Ryan Shazier) while the other six (Hasean Cinton-Dix, Calvin Pryor, Dee Ford, C.J. Mosley, Ra'Shede Hageman, Louis Nix) may not have visited, but since we don't know all the visitor names yet, we can't rule them out with any certainty.
We've summarized all the mocks and players in one humongous table below. Apologies in advance to anybody reading this on a mobile: the table is too big to display properly. And even if you're not using a mobile, you may still run into difficulties reading the table due to its size. Which is why here's a brief summary of all 12 prospects and where they rank across the 40 mocks.
Aaron Donald: It may be time to prepare for a draft in which Aaron Donald is gone by the time the Cowboys are on the clock, unless they trade up. In the 40 mock drafts, Donald falls to the 16th spot just seven times, the fewest of any prospect we've looked at. The Giants at #12 get him seven times, and Chicago at #14 gets him in 16 mocks. Of note: not once in all of the 40 mocks does Donald fall beyond the 16th spot.
Cowboys' chances of getting Donald (according to the 40 mocks): 18%. If they want Donald, they'll almost certainly have to trade up to #13 to get ahead of the Bears, an may have to trade up to #11 to get ahead of the Giants.
Hasean Clinton-Dix: You might think it's odd that Clinton-Dix shows up as the number two guy on this list, but that's what the mocks show. Clinton-Dix slips to #16 just 10 times. If the Lions at #10 don't select him (6 mocks), then the Rams at #13 will (16 times).
Anthony Barr: The 40 mocks give a very uneven picture of Anthony Barr. Eight mocks have him as a top ten prospect, more than any other player in our summary, and he's mocked to the Titans at #11 seventeen times. However, he also slips all the way to #16 eleven times. Cowboys' chances: 28%. If the Cowboys want Barr, they may have to trade with the Titans at #11 or trade ahead of the Titans.
Timmy Jernigan: Lance Zierlein of The Sideline View writes "I was told by a source inside the league that Florida State DT Timmy Jernigan could 'fall like a rock'". And the mocks here seem to agree, as Jernigan shows up as a first round-prospect just 25 times, the lowest number of any of the 12 prospects. Jernigan is mocked 12 times to either the Bears (four times) or the Cowboys (eight times), but then he falls like a rock, briefly getting mocked four times to the Patriots at #29 before slipping out of the first round entirely. Going by these mocks, the Cowboys could easily trade down into the mid twenties and still have a reasonable expectation of grabbing Jernigan there. Cowboys' chances: 88%
Calvin Pryor: Some interest from the Rams at #13 (five mocks) and Bears at #14 (two times) but he'd be available for the Cowboys in 80% of the mocks. After that, interest starts picking up and there's an almost 90% chance he'll be gone before the 25th pick.
Zack Martin: Martin looks like a lock for the Dolphins at #19. 23 mocks have him going to Miami, and there's very narrow window for Martin: 34 mocks (85%) have him going between the 16th and the 20th pick.
Dee Ford: The market for Ford starts with Arizona at #20, who take him seven times, he gets interest from the Bengals at #24 (five mocks), but will likely make his home in New Orleans (16 mocks) as a 3-4 OLB for Rob Ryan.
Kony Ealy: Only one mock has Ealy gone by the 16th pick, so there's a very good chance he'll be available for the Cowboys. Just like with Ford, there is interest from Arizona (eight mocks) and Cincinnati (five mocks), as well as lot of interest after that, but Ealy is also dropped out of the first round 10 times.
Ryan Shazier: Shazier is a late entry into first round consideration, an again generates interest from Arizona and Cincinnati, but mockers also like him a lot for Denver at #31 (eight mocks). Shazier is another interesting option for the Cowboys in a trade-down scenario.
C.J. Mosley is all over the place, and is mocked to 13 different teams between picks #9 and #29. None of those teams is Dallas, but keep a close eye on Mosley in the draft: If he's taken ahead of the Cowboys, a coveted prospect could easily fall to the Cowboys.
Ra'Shede Hageman has lost a lot of traction in mock draft circles. Five mocks have him going to Chicago at #14, but after that he drops just as quickly as Timmy Jernigan, with the difference that he gets a lot of interest (15 mocks) from the teams picking 29-32, and will therefore likely remain in the first round.
Louis Nix will either play for San Diego (14 mocks) or New England (7 mocks) - unless he doesn't.
With all of that out of the way, here's the full overview of what the mock draft community has those 12 prospects doing in the draft:
Mock Draft Overview (click column header to sort)
|Detroit Free Press||4/16||11||8||21||24||19||13||27||16||31||17||29||25|
|WalterFootball (Walt)||4/15||10||12||14||17||19||- -||27||20||31||21||29||25|
|NFL.com (Brooks)||4/15||9||14||13||16||19||- -||20||24||21||12||29||- -|
|CBSSports (Brugler)||4/14||12||10||17||13||16||14||31||- -||20||29||- -||25|
|Rotoworld (Norris)||4/14||11||5||8||18||16||- -||20||- -||24||22||14||15|
|CBSSports (Rang)||4/14||11||16||13||14||19||- -||- -||29||24||27||- -||21|
|WalterFootballl (Charlie)||4/14||11||13||14||21||19||- -||20||32||31||- -||16||25|
|KFFL||4/11||11||14||13||16||19||29||27||20||31||21||- -||- -|
|ESPN (McShay)||4/10||- -||14||10||20||17||16||- -||- -||- -||13||31||29|
|CBSSports (Brinson)||4/10||11||12||13||- -||19||- -||24||20||32||- -||14||16|
|CBSSports (Prisco)||4/10||11||14||13||29||17||16||27||20||21||19||- -||25|
|SI.com (Don Banks)||4/10||20||10||17||21||19||16||27||24||- -||14||29||25|
|RealGM Football||4/10||14||16||- -||- -||11||- -||27||- -||8||29||22||- -|
|Foxsports (Greetham)||4/10||11||16||13||17||19||14||24||20||27||29||- -||- -|
|Yahoo (King)||4/10||7||14||11||21||19||- -||27||16||- -||29||32||30|
|Drafttek||4/9||6||14||10||22||19||16||- -||31||21||17||- -||11|
|Optimum Scouting||4/9||18||12||10||16||28||- -||22||20||- -||21||15||25|
|NFL.com (Jeremiah)||4/9||16||14||13||17||19||24||- -||- -||31||9||29||- -|
|Seahawks Draft Blog||4/9||16||8||14||23||28||- -||- -||- -||13||29||20||25|
|NFL.com ( Goodbread)||4/8||6||14||13||16||19||17||27||31||25||21||- -||29|
|Sideline View||4/8||11||12||21||24||16||- -||22||- -||20||- -||14||- -|
|Yahoo (Edholm)||4/7||8||12||10||13||17||16||24||27||31||21||14||- -|
|SB Nation (Kadar)||4/7||11||14||13||20||27||- -||24||16||31||23||- -||29|
|Football's Future||4/7||11||14||13||16||19||31||20||24||- -||21||32||25|
|The Draft Report||4/7||19||14||13||- -||32||- -||20||16||- -||12||17||- -|
|Great Blue North||4/7||11||14||17||21||19||16||20||24||- -||27||31||29|
|LA Times||4/5||8||14||17||20||16||32||- -||24||- -||19||21||29|
|ECSports News||4/4||8||16||13||14||19||25||24||12||- -||20||17||11|
|NFL.com (Smith)||4/3||12||13||10||16||20||14||27||- -||- -||21||23||25|
|ESPN (Kiper)||4/3||20||16||13||19||17||29||27||- -||- -||21||32||- -|
|NFL.com (Fisher)||4/1||11||16||10||13||9||21||22||20||27||19||- -||29|
|SI.com (Farrar)||4/1||6||11||16||17||19||- -||27||25||- -||20||21||15|
|Draftinsider (Dove)||4/1||16||14||- -||21||19||30||27||- -||- -||13||32||25|