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Draft Chart Analysis of the DLaw Trade

Dallas got taken. Everyone, including the ones who made the trade, admits it. The real question is "how badly taken were they?"

The Jimmy Johnson chart says 630 for picks 47 and 78, and 560 points for pick 34. Washington wins by 70 points - the equivalent of pick 112. For them giving pick 130 back would still result in a 30 point win. Given that the Johnson Chart typically favors trade ups versus the Harvard chart, we'd expect this to look even worse on the Harvard chart. Clearly Dallas got really ripped off here, right?

Not so fast.

The Harvard Chart plus 30% (which I believe is the correct way to use it) gives a value of 225.3 for the 34th pick-- 173.3 for the pick + a 30% premium for the trade up. My (admittedly limited) research has led me to believe that teams using the Harvard chart pay a premium to "get their guy" and that 30% is the usual amount.

The Dallas picks, on the Harvard Chart add up to 265.7, showing a difference of 40.4. Now, this difference is only the value of a 7th round pick (approximately pick 200). Should Dallas have held out for pick 194 (which would actually make the trade slightly in their favor)? perhaps... but regardless, the difference in pick value according to the Harvard Chart is actually *less* than the Johnson chart pick value.

Dallas over paid, but if you favor the Harvard chart (as I believe Dallas does), they got taken for a lot less than you might have thought.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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