## What to expect from a draft pick II

In an earlier fanpost, I wrote about what to expect from a draft pick. Among the issues involved were the success rates for a given selection.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2014/1/2/5266718/what-to-expect-from-a-draft-pick

Probability of success by draft pick

In its analysis of drafts from 1993 through 2012, DRAFTMETRICS has concluded that there are indeed seven "rounds" of the draft, just not the same seven as the NFL. The seven Value Groups designated by DRAFTMETRICS are:

group…selection……………play……start…1 pro….3 pro….1 all…..3 all

................................................3 yrs…3 yrs….bowl…bowls…pro….pro

1. Selections 1-13………………89.6…..73.8…..44.2…..20.8…..23.5…..9.0

2. Selections 14-40…………….83.9…..60.9…..18.9…..08.5…..10.9……2.2

3. Selections 41-66…………….78.1……44.4…..12.5……03.5…..06.3…..2.0

4. Selections 67-86……………74.3…..29.8…..05.8…..02.5…..03.0…..0.5

5. Selections 87-149…………..61.4…..18.9……04.0…..01.1……02.3…..0.3

6. Selections 150-189…………47.1……11.6……03.3…..00.8…..01.9…..0.3

7. Selections 190 and later..38.6….08.2…..02.0…..00.7…..01.0…..0.1

These do not quite match up with rounds, per se, but the success changes radically as the selections go on. Of course, what one determines success also varies.

Who starts for a team is based on a number of factors, some of which are not related to the draft pick. These other factors are based on the team who selects them. This may be the quality of depth, particularly injuries on the drafting team.

The chart by Villotti is interesting as it shows the range of play but has overlapping values. We know this as the numbers do not add up to 100%. By defining the categories to eliminate the overlap, we can simplify this chart into five groups

A simplified chart

For simplification lets use the following definitions of players who were

TERRIBLE - not 3 year players

BELOW AVERAGE - were 3 year players but not 3 year starters

AVERAGE - everybody not in another category

ABOVE AVERAGE - went to 1 probowl but not 3 or more probowls, this includes the 1 allpro

GREAT - went to 3 or more probowls

Then we can have the following chart

..................................TERR...BA....AVER...AA.....GREAT....total

selections 1-13.....10.4.....15.8.....29.6.....23.4.....20.8.....100

selections 14-40....16.1.....23.0.....42.0.....10.4......8.5.....100

selections 41-66....21.9.....33.7.....31.9......9.0......3.5.....100

selections 67-86....25.7.....44.5.....24.0......3.3......2.5.....100

selections 87-149...38.6.....42.5.....14.9......2.9......1.1.....100

selection 150-189...52.9.....35.5......8.3......2.5......0.8.....100

selections 190+.....61.4.....30.4......6.2......1.3......0.7.....100

For each selection there is a range of values clustered around the most likely and less as you go out to the extremes. The bold notes the mode, or the most frequent occurence, for each selection. The likelihood of finding a player who is above average or great goes down greatly with each group.

Assigning a grade to the groups

This chart is much more usable as we can then assign a grade to each category. For ease, lets use a 1-5 scale:

1.....TERRIBLE

2.....BELOW AVERAGE

3.....AVERAGE

4.....ABOVE AVERAGE

5.....GREAT

Now we have the percentage for each selection as to category and a grade assigned to each category. From this we can calculate an expected value for each selection. First we multiply the category and grade for each category and then add them all together

For example for selection 1-13 (.104 x 1) + (.158 x 2) + (.296 x 3) + (.234 x 4) + (.208 x 5) = 3.28

Expected Value

We can create a table of all the selections as follows:

Selections....Expected Value.....Takeaway

1-13............3.28.......average to above average

14-40...........2.72.......below average to average

41-66...........2.39.......below average to average

67-86...........2.12.......below average to average

87-149..........1.85.......terrible to below average

150-189.........1.62.......terrible to below average

190+............1.50.......terrible to below average

Most of this is not earthshaking news. One expects a early first rounder to be better than a late first round/second pick and the last picks not to be successful. Yet there are some things we should pay attention to:

Takeaways

1. Even the best picks fail. Some may have injuries and never recover. Others may not have the right mental capacity to withstand the pressure.

2. Because the best can fail, one should expect them to be average to better than average.

3. There are risks with every pick, but the risk is not evenly distributed.

4. The reward goes down with every pick but are clustered and do not go down in a straight line.

5. The draft is the chance to get the BEST players and the probability for getting the best players go down dramatically by group

6. Expected values are a POINT value, which is to say we put everything into one number. Obviously there are ranges of values for each selection group. Some players will do well and others will not.

7. The best thing to note is where the typical player falls in each group

8. We can use the EV to differentiate BETWEEN groups but not much WITHIN groups

9. These categories and grades are arbitrary. I chose the categories based on available data. Changing the definitions would given different percentages. I chose the grades for ease and clarity. One could easily choose grades that emphasize the best categories and that would change the results dramatically,

These numbers are associated with the draft pick itself not the player actually selected. All these expectations and calculations are based on a TYPICAL player at a given draft selection. These numbers are associated with the draft pick itself not the player actually selected.

Thus, the player EVALUATION by a team is critical. On the draft board, it is just as important to note the order of the players at a given position as the GAPS between the ranking. See the previous article for more details, but ranking has problems of not noting how far or close apart the next player is.

The difference in the value of the SPECIFIC PLAYER versus the general draft PICK is crucial. This is discussed more fully in PRICE, COST, VALUE. One should particularly read the comments sections carefully as

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2014/4/30/5667844/price-cost-and-value

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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