FanPost

The art of The Educated Guess


I have been contemplating the results of our recent draft with mixed feelings. Though I am overall satisfied with the results, I was wondering what could have been.

This drove me to come to the conclusion that every draft is nothing more than an educated guess. Now bear with me while I try to explain my theory. If we break educated guess into two distinct categories this makes more sense. First is educated, this is were all the hard work of compiling stats, results, numbers, hat size and everything else that we bombard ourselves with leading up to the draft comes into play. This is what helps us form some kind of crude ranking order. That leaves us with the "guess" part. A guess is a guess, nothing to really explain there.

What I'm using to base this theory on is a date night where I took my wife to the local greyhound race track before it closed down. When you first walk into the clubhouse, you can purchase a race program guide for the upcoming evening races. Guess whats in there. Yep, your right, all kinds of neat charts and symbols with the dogs stats, kennel name, weight, etc. I would sit there and pour all over the available information before each race before declaring the winner and go place my "now educated" two dollar wager. After five races I was on the losing side by about $6.50 and I looked over at my wife's pile of winnings, about $12.00, and asked her what her strategy was. It was pretty simple, she picked the dog with the coolest name.

So what I did is I took the Cowboys original draft spots and let my wife pick the player with the coolest name from that position plus 20 spots. For example for pick number 16 she got to pick between 16 and 36. Now remember the educated part, I'm going under the presumption the all 32 teams did their homework and the players that have been picked in this span deserve to be there. I am using the players in the exact order they were drafted in. I also know that 20 spots is a little wide, but I wanted a reasonable size selection.

This is her take on what should of been 16- Teddy Bridgewater QB, 47- Carlos Hyde RB, 78- Richard Roger TE, 119- Dakota Dozier OT,158- Aaron Murray QB, 229- Will Smith OLB, 231- Ahamad Dixon S, 238- Tyler Star OLB, 248- Michael Sam DE, 251- Lavelle Westbrook CB and 254- Terrence Mitchell CB.

Trust me I wanted to say something to her about picking Bridgewater and Murray, but she doesn't know the difference between a QB and a referee. Plus I didn't want to influence this highly scientific process. As silly as this hind-site re-draft might seem, always keep in mind, that in the NFL strange things happen. I will keep an eye on how her re-draft works out over the next few years before I declare it a bust or success. Remember she has a proven track record.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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