FanPost

BTB Challenge: Who made good predictions last year?

After the first game last year I challenged BTB to make some predictions. To refresh your memory, Dallas was coming off a 6 takeway performance against the NYG and allowing Eli to throw for almost 11 yards / attempt. I'd say there were 2 main schools of thought: Camp Stats and Camp Gut.

The rough positions were as follows:

Camp Stats:

1. Turnovers tend to show regression to the mean so expect an average takeaway rate for the remainder of the year.

2. Allowing 11 NY/A is terrible, this defense looks bad.

Camp Gut:

1. Turnovers are skill. Kiffen has taught the D how to get takeaways, the above average takeaway rate will continue.

2. Dallas had a lead and they played a prevent, that's why they gave up big yards.

Decision: Camp Stats in a Mike Tyson-esque KO.

Here's prediction performance charted. The smaller the error, the better.

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via i.imgur.com

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via i.imgur.com

A few notes.

1. Props to NYHorn for coming within 1 of predicting the 27 takeaways exactly.

2. There was only 1 prediction in both category that was too pessimistic (NYHorn that Dallas would only have 26 takeaways). Every other prediction saw Dallas doing better than they actually did. Keep that in mind the next time you're tempted to claim a commenter on BTB is being 'pessimistic'.

3. The worst predictions came from the people who don't believe NY/A has predictive value. Makes sense.

4. Quote I can't resist

This defense will be regarded as one of the best in team history, if not NFL history.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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