FanPost

Trade up? Down? or Stay Put? Yes, of course!


Was reading the comment section of today's fantastic news update at BTB when a commenter noted this tweet:

Much discussion ensued about who the four could be, and various scenarios in which we would trade up for a player. I'd like to share a realistic scenario as to how I believe it will play out tomorrow evening.

First of all, I believe the four players are Kahlil Mack, Anthony Barr, Aaron Donald, and Zach Martin. This corroborates with another tweet by Jeff Sullivan:

The team will be watching carefully what happens with these four players.

Scenario #1 - trade down

If all are gone in the top 10-12 picks, we will likely see the team try to work a trade down into the late first round (this isn't new news, I know.) Targets there would be from a group consisting of, but not limited to DeMarcus Lawrence (Boise St), Jimmy Ward (N. Ill), Kony Ealy (Mizzou), or Kareem Martin (UNC).

Why I can see this happening:

This is basically what happened last year. The team had some targets, all of whom came off the board before our pick came up. Whether they didn't feel that their targets were worth trading up for, or they just didn't get a deal done, we don't know. What we do know is that all the players they wanted to take at their original pick were gone, hence the trade down to #30.

Scenario #2 - trade up

If we get past pick #12, and one of the big four still remain on the board, the team will attempt to make a small move up to get him. This move up will only happen if there is only one of the big four left. As long as two of those four are on the board, the team will not look to trade up to get one of them. Look for this move up to cost no more than a fourth round pick as the team knows they need to keep as many top 100 picks as possible to build a deeper team.

Why I can see this happening:

Look at the 2010 draft. Jerry said the team had three targets that year: Iupati, Earl Thomas, and Dez Bryant. The first two came off the board in the teens. When Dez was still on the board and only a couple of picks away, the team moved up to snag him because they felt he was worth giving up the extra pick.

Scenario #3 - Stay put

This one is probably the least likely to happen. Scenario three involves staying put at #16. In my view, this only happens if two of the big four are available at pick 15, or if no other trades can be worked out. In this scenario, the team would be assured of getting one of its targets without the expense of trading up. This is the dream scenario. For this to actually happen, we need to see Quarterbacks and Wide Recievers and TE's fly off the board in the top 15 picks.

Why I can see this happening:

The 2011 draft saw an early run on questionable quarterbacks. Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, and Jake Locker all went much higher than expected. Could we see the same this year with JFF, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgwater, AJ McCarron, and Derek Carr?

We'll know in about 28 hours.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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