Draftniks have a notoriously fickle memory, as do many fans. And it wasn't long after the Cowboys made their pick yesterday that some draftniks across the nation started using the word 'reach' to describe the Cowboys' selection of Zack Martin in the 2014 draft. That assessment may have been driven by the disappointment of the Cowboys not having selected Manziel, a general need to find something negative to say about the Cowboys, or any number of other reasons. The data we have suggests that the draft consensus not only saw Zack Martin as the top guard in the draft, but also as a prospect unlikely to fall all the way to the Cowboys' No. 16 pick.
Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics developed a draft tool prior to the draft that showed which players would likely be available at which draft slot. Yesterday morning, Zack Martin's chances of being available at No. 16 were 21%, and they may have dropped further as Burke incorporated the latest mock drafts into his model. That's a first good indicator that the Cowboys made a good pick.
Ultimately, we won't know for another few years whether Martin was a good pick or not, but there is no denying that Martin was a consensus Top 12 pick. We did a quick scan of some of the better known draft analysts and their 42 final mock drafts of 2014 to find out where exactly the mock draft community had Zack Martin ranked. The results: 80% of the mocks (33 of 42) had Martin selected anywhere between the No. 6 and No. 12 picks, only 19% (8 of 42) projected Martin being available for the Cowboys with the No. 16 pick
Here is the full list of mock drafts showing where Martin was ranked in each. For your convenience, the table is sortable (just click on the blue column headers).
|Where mock drafts ranked Zack Martin in 2014|
|Jason Boris||Times News||5/8||9|
|Gabriel & Galko||National Football Post||5/8||9|
|Jason McIntyre||Big Lead||5/8||9|
|Sam Farmer||LA Times||5/8||9|
|Eric Galko||Optimum Scouting||5/7||9|
|Ben Standig||CSN Washington||5/6||9|
|Bob McGinn||Journal Sentinel||5/8||12|
|Robert Davis||Football's Future||5/8||12|
|Kadar & Fairburn||SB Nation||5/8||12|
|AL Fronczak||EC Sports News||5/8||12|
|Chase Stuart||Football Perspective||5/5||16|