Admirers and admonishers alike, after starting our look at the Eagles D, we have finally reached the final installment of the 'get to know your neighbors' narratives. I'll try and make this as quick as a I can.
A couple of drinks, some compromising photos, and I'll be on my way.
And there was much rejoicing.
With training camp now in full swing, and because I'm tired of studying teams who don't sport the Star, we're going to fast-forward through the usual festivities and jump right in to Chip Kelly's offensive juggernaut.
wait...so that would be a Chuggernaut?
So be it.
You better call Kenny Loggins, because we're heading straight into the Danger Zone...
The 'Next Time Part of the Tune In Next Time' section: The Chuggernaut
Let's saunter on over to the Chipster and see what the new year will bring in terms of new roles for new faces and old friends in new places. It's not a lengthy list, but there were some some moves, some non-moves, some added additions, and some additions by subtraction worth noting. More song dedications have been provided to enhance your reading experience.
--The Fleetwood Mac 'Go Your Own Way' roster release: Michael Vick. I'm not sure anyone who was even remotely paying attention was surprised when Vick was handed his walking papers. The Iggles have faith in Foles.
Move along please, nothing more to see here.
--The Violent Femmes 'Gone Daddy Gone' roster release: DeSean Jackson. I can't say for sure if D-Jax really had gang ties or not, and I don't know that it really matters. The Iggles were looking for a reason, any reason, to jolt Jackson from the lineup.
Chip was like "Step aside everyone, sensitive letters are my specialty...ahem...'Dear DeSean, Welcome to Dumpsville. Population: You'."
I think Chip is not-so-secretly snickering that 'MeSean' wandered over to Washington. Because you know what Washington really needed was another narcissist.
--The Clash 'Should I Stay or Should I go' re-signing: Riley Cooper. Cooper's continued employment by the Eagles was far less certain after a scene involving a racial slur threatened to derail his 2013 season before it started. All's well that end's well though as he inked a new five year deal and looks to stake a spot as a starting wide-out.
-- The Eminem 'Guess Who's Back' re-signing: Jeremy Maclin. Signing a one year prove-it deal and working his way back from an ACL tear that sidelined him last season, Maclin will put in a bid for 'MeSean's old spot at the 'Z'.
-- The Jackson 5 'I Want You Back' re-signing: Jason Kelce. Even people with no brains consider this move a no-brainer. Arguably the best center on arguably the best line in the league last year, and he's locked up until 2020. I hate Chip Kelly.
-- The Johnny Cash 'That's the Truth' via trade: Darren Sproles. The Iggles flipped a fifth to the Saints for Sproles in what may very well be the steal of the offseason. Sproles should be a great fit for this offense, and that's the truth.
-- The Temptations 'Get Ready' second round rookie: Jordan Matthews. Good size, good hands, good run after the catch-ness. Quick but not fast. Won't stretch the field vertically but will excel in the short to intermediate areas. My guess is that he locks up the slot spot, but it will be a battle.
--The Peaches and Herb 'Reunited' third round rookie: Josh Huff. Smaller in size than Matthews, but played for Chip at Oregon, so he should be fairly familiar with the playbook. Projected as a slot guy mainly because of size, I expect him to be a tough out for Matthews in training camp.
-- The Spice Girls 'Wannabe' FA signing: Mark Sanchez. Two words: Butt Fumble.
The 'The Chip Kelly Show Is About to Begin' section: The Cleanpants Express Perspective
For a first year HC, Chip Kelly did ok for himself, capturing the NFC East with a ten-win season, finishing 2nd in yards and 4th in points. The passing game was impeccable, finishing in the top ten in yards and TDs. The running game was even more impressive finishing first overall in yards and yards per attempt, and second in TDs.
Like taking candy from a candy hating baby.
Chip prefers to employ a Krieger-like hybrid of the spread option offense, wrapped in the Erhardt Perkins terminology shell, that incorporates passing principles from the west coast coupled with copious amounts of chicanery and a profusion of pre-snap positioning.
Designed to deceive, Chip uses motion and formation disguise much like a skilled street magician uses sleight of hand.
There are those who have tenderly entitled it the 'spread coast' offense.
It's like if Bill Walsh, David Blaine, and the Zone-Read all got together and had a baby, and named it this exact offense.
The Chipster may seem like a madman, but there is a method to his madness that encompasses not only his philosophy on the playing field, but his unconventional approach off of it. Chip sums it up himself very nicely:
"If it makes sense, and the science is behind it, we’ll do it."
We can talk about smoothies, we can talk about remote-controlled cars, or scientifically selected music selections if you want. Innovative innovations seem to be a theme.
Likewise, there is the much mentioned matter of tempo, tempo, tempo that we could talk, talk, talk about.
I could start shouting out stats that have already been shouted, or I could begin to bombard you with a bevy of things you probably already know, but I think I'm in favor of just filtering the focus to a couple of concepts...that you probably already know.
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Behind all the subterfuge and skulduggery, at the core of his convictions, rests the real resolve of the Chuggernaut: Do the math, and run the damn ball.
When you peer past the pretense of misdirection, the heart of this offense is the zone running game. Simple in concept, and when executed properly can be very effective. If the O-lineman is covered, meaning he has a defensive player lined up over him, then he blocks the man in front of him. If he is uncovered, then he slides to the play side and doubles up with a buddy. The RB just runs to daylight. There's more to it than that of course, but as over-simplifications go, not too bad.
Per the Chipster:
Of course, a central component of Chip's conception is the Zone Read/Read Option play.
Just because I'm a sucker for a good flow chart:
The Iggles will do some quick calculations when they line up, and if the numbers are there, they will run the ball every chance they get.
Skimming through the stats ferrets this out, as the Iggles ranked fourth in rushing attempts versus 27th in passing attempts. And for 314 of those 500 rushing attempts, the ball went to LeSean McCoy, who led the league in more rushing categories than he didn't.
I'm thinking that maybe stopping McCoy is the key to stopping this offense in general. LeSean had seven games last year where he rushed for greater than, or equal to, 100 yards. Maybe it's just a coincidence that the Iggles went 6-1 in those games, and 4-5 in the games he didn't, but I have to think that's the first step in stopping the Chuggernaut.
Easier said than done, I know, especially with that ridiculously good offensive line. Ranked number one by PFF, it's hard to argue that point.
But I think I'm going to anyway, with assistance provided from the fine folks over at Football Outsiders. According to their metrics, the Eagles O-line actually ranked 25th in Adjusted Line Yards, and 21st in stuffed percentage. Where they excelled was in second-level yards and open field yards, where they were ranked number one and number two, respectively. From the primer near the top of the page:
A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work.
That last sentence describes the Iggles data delightfully well, and reasserts the assertion that this offense is really McCoy's toy.
Now, glide on over to the pass rating for this line, and well, let's just say there's plenty of room for improvement as they ranked 31st in Adjusted Sack Rate. Even the PFF article that was touting them as the biggest and the nastiest of the big nasties, has them ranked 18th in pass blocking.
They're very good, no question.
But neither Marky Mark nor his funkybunch are on this team, which means they are not Invincible.
They can be bested by aggressive and disciplined play by the front seven.
Discipline is one of the crucial components when chasing the Chuggernaut. If you're undisciplined than the Chuggernaut will chugger right over your nauts, if you know what I mean.
Quick sidenote: Chip did a series of segments with Brian Baldinger breaking down All-22 film from some of last seasons games. Great insight into what he's thinking when he's running what he's running. If you have a few minutes, check it out.
I say disciplined because once Chip knows that you know that Chip likes to run, then Chip will set you up and not run. He likes to put together 'packaged' plays where, based on the alignment of the defensive front, he can attack with either a pass or a run and no audible is needed. Often, the other offensive players don't even know where the ball is going until it is on it's way. Typically some sort of screen, and sometimes two, are incorporated so the QB can make a quick throw based on his read of one or two key defenders.
If they can run, they will. Can't stress that enough. But, if the D stacks the box, then Chip will put the 'west coast' part of the 'spread coast' into action.
Nick Foles, who had an unbelievable year last year, will be primarily in the Pistol or Shotgun. Last year they lined him up deep behind the line on 92.5% of their plays. Gives him a good vantage point of the defense and a solid mesh point with the RB. Crossing routes and hitches were among his favorites, accounting for 27.5% of his dropbacks. He also likes to show his running backs a little love out in the flats and on wheel routes.
Hello Mr. Sproles...paging Mr. Sproles...
While Sproles won't steal that many carries from McCoy, he will spell him enough to be a legitimate threat on swings, screens and the like, with a little inside/outside zone action thrown in to keep the D honest.
The team in green loves them some screens, and Foles throws more of them than any other QB. To the tune of 17.5% of all his dropbacks, which is almost double the league average. Chip just waits until you over-commit to the run, or man up and bring the blitz, and pops off a nice little bubble screen on the backside for a big gain.
Chipster's a trickster.
Now I believe they're going to miss 'MeSean' more than they let on, as they don't have anyone that has the 'take the top off the defense' type speed like he had. He may have been a malignancy in multiple ways, but he was fast on the field.
It was like "Wow! Check out that guy! He makes Speedy Gonzales look like Regular Gonzales!"
Without the additional attention that 'MeSean' commonly commanded from the safeties, I have to wonder if this group of wide-outs will be able to duplicate the effectiveness of last year's unit.
They may not be quite as adept at stretching the field vertically, but they'll do just fine in stretching the field horizontally. They've got big bodied guys like Riley Cooper and Jordan Matthews, traditional slot guys like Josh Huff, and a talented pair of TE's by the names Celek and Ertz that will drive this offense down the field in chunks.
Small chunks, but chunks none the less.
Chip's team led the league in 'big plays' last season, finishing in the top spot in both big play rushing yards (10+ yards) and big play passing yards (+25 yards).
McCoy will still get his McYards, because...well, because he will.
I'm not sure I've mentioned this yet, but he's really good.
But I don't think the passing game performs quite as pleasingly, partly because the WRs don't pose the same problems.
Partly because Nick Foles will fail to replicate his previous year's proficiency. At one point last year he tied the NFL single game record with 7 TDs on his way to setting an NFL record 27-2 TD to INT ratio. That's just ridiculous.
Due to the scheme he's immersed in, and the strength of the running game, Foles will put up decent numbers, good yards and a nice completion percentage, and the YAC will make his numbers seem even better.
But with his primary speed guy gone, I don't think he takes as many shots down the field (18.9% of all his throws last season were 20+ yards deep). So I think his big play potential takes a noticeable nose dive.
I think he sees more disguised defenses this year, making the pre-snap portion of the read more problematic, and that I think translates into pressure. And he is a completely different QB under pressure. More props to PFF for pointing out that sans pressure he grades out to a +13.2, but when the pressure is popping his grade plummets to a -1.6.
And I've just got to put this out there, Foles got lucky with a few last year. The whole team did.
More thoughts on that thought in a moment.
If we dangle the angle from a Cowboys context, then on the surface we'll see a potentially potent offense pitted against a defense that has more questions than it does answers. But, based on last year's contests I do believe the blueprint is in place for the 'Boys to limit the explosiveness of this offense.
I hear you Philthy fans out there, muttering and mumbling about not believing my mumbo jumbo.
Mumbo, perhaps. Jumbo, perhaps not.
In the first game last year, the Cowboys D was one of only two teams to hold this offense without a TD. LeSean was limited to 55 yards on 18 attempts, and Foles was having a really bad game before he left with a concussion. I believe it revealed what can be done when the players execute within this scheme.
Of course, it also helps when you have a player like Sean Lee play out of his mind.
The second game didn't turn out quite as well for us. But, considering that it was week 17, and by then: LB'ers and DBs had been a revolving door of injury and poor play. We were rolling out D-linemen we picked up at the local Costco on our way to the game. And our defense had already earned the heavyweight title of 'most horrible ever'.
Even with fielding that monstrosity of a defense, we were still one field goal away from winning the damn thing, and we were still able to hold this offense under their season average of 27 points.
In the prior three games before our second matchup, the Iggles were averaging 39 points per game, including putting a 50-burger up on the Bears the week before.
So, our scheme is sound, if the players produce.
And at this stage, that's a pretty big if.
Slight Advantage: Them
The 'Wake Up, I think He's Finally Finished' section:
"My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives." -Hedley Lamarr
Looking from the outside, I think the Eagles basically caught lightning in a bottle last year. An unorthodox coach with an unorthodox approach bet everything on a second year QB who had six starts his rookie year. The opposition didn't have much film on Foles, and even less on Chip, at least on an NFL level. Foles had several INTs either called back for questionable penalties or dropped by the defense. The chances of him having something even close to last year's absurd TD to INT ratio, are probably greater than winning the lottery...twice.
The much ballyhooed 'uptempo' tidal wave wasn't quite as furious as expected, as they finished 12th in plays per game. And instead of carrying the offense, it actually crashed in on the defense as they ranked 32nd in opponents plays per game.
This offense had a propensity for the big play, but lost their big play receiver. 'MeSean' managed to finish second in the league last year with receptions for 20+ yards.
It also seems like the success of the big play masked some deficiencies in this offense as well. I already mentioned there were some trouble areas with pass protection. I should also mention that there seems to be some red zone issues as well, as Foles and friends ranked 26th in the NFL in points per red zone appearance.
These are the type of things that can come back and bite you right square in the place where things bite you.
Now, I'm not trying to say that this Iggles team was just flat out lucky last year.
Oh, wait.
That is exactly what I'm trying to say.
I know players say you make your own luck on the field, and I'll take their word for it. But there are some things that extend beyond anyone's control. Like facing a Green Bay team with no Aaron Rodgers. Like facing the Detroit Calvin Johnsons in a blizzard. Like facing a Dallas team with no Romo.
That's right, I said it. I firmly believe we win that game if Romo plays.
Chip had better be looking over his shoulder, because these are things that catch up with you. And when they do, it's not generally too much fun.
As far as the foreseeable future, I think we split the series with the Iggles. I think that our two games will play out similar to the two from 2013, where we win one with a reasonable level of comfort (although I don't see us holding them to three points again), and the other is a game we should win but don't.
I have Chip and company finishing 4-2 in the division, splitting with the Giants and sweeping the Skins.
The short passing game and the really, really good running game will make sure that the Iggles don't fall too far.
But they will fall, just a little.
And the rest of the league catches up with Chip and his bag o' tricks.
Just enough to make a difference.
The Iggles finish this year at 9-7, one game behind the 'Boys and second place in the race for the NFC East.
There you have it, all wrapped up in a nice little bow and ready to send to your sweetie. If I had a microphone right now, I'd throw it down and walk away like I was really cool.
Instead, I'll just stop typing.
And there was much rejoicing.