FanPost

Wake Me Up When September Ends

Summer has come and passed
The innocent can never last
wake me up when September ends

These lyrics from Green Day's monster hit Wake Me Up When September Ends came to mind when I read the news about Orlando Scandrick.

Quick trivia question: When was the last time the Dallas Cowboys missed the playoffs 5 years in a row? Well, it's happened only 1 time in the history of this great franchise and that drought resulted in the firing of the team's legendary coach Tom Landry. The team missed the playoffs in 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, and 1990. The latest lost player leaves me wondering if the teams darkest history is about to repeat itself.

With the news that Orlando Scandrick will miss the first 4 games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, the level of anxiety among many fans has reached peak level, and with darn good reason. The NFL’s worst defense in 2013 will begin 2014 without the 4 best players from 2013: Demarcus Ware, Jason Hatcher, Sean Lee, and Orlando Scandrick. Let that sink in. Add to that injuries to Demarcus Lawrence and the groin strain to Henry Melton and the situation is alarming.

If you’re one of the fans who is rationalizing the loss of Scandrick by imagining that he is not a projected starter and simply a role player, think again. Scandrick played the 2nd most defensive snaps of any player on the defense in 2013. Last season, Scandrick was the best player in a sub-par secondary and has been the best defensive player in training camp.

So just how important are the first four games of the season? Teams that start the season 1-3 have a 17% chance of making the playoffs according to my research. We start the season at home against the 49ers, then go on the road against the Titans and Rams, then return home to face the Saints. I don’t think you can overstate the importance of finishing the first quarter of the season 2-2. If the Cowboys were drop 3 of the first 4 games, we would need to win 9 of the next 12 (.750%) to get to that magical 10 win number that is historically the benchmark for winning the division or a wildcard spot. For a team that has played .500 football for nearly 20 years now, the prospect of winning of 9 of the final 12 is a pipe dream reserved only for the most optimistic of fans drinking kegs of Kool Aid.

Much has been written about the back end of the Cowboys season. The NFL scheduling committee did the Cowboys no favors when they constructed the 2014 NFL schedule. To put it kindly, the last 6 weeks of the season is not kind. Let’s take another look at those final 6 weeks.

Following the Nov 16th bye, the Cowboys play 4 of 6 games on the road in cold weather cities. They play 4 division games and the other 2 games are at Chicago and Indianapolis at home, 2 teams projected by many to be in the thick of the playoff hunt in 2014. The first game of that 6 game stretch starts on Sunday night November 23rd. 4 days later the Cowboys play the Eagles at home on Thanksgiving Day. 7 days later the Cowboys play at Chicago December 4th on a Thursday night. The team gets a 10 day break before playing facing the Eagles on the road, the Colts at home, and then we finish the season at Washington.

The point of all this is that the first 4 weeks of the season are more critical than ever for the Cowboys. The end of the season simply does not setup for gaining ground. While calling week 2 and 3 road games against the Titans and Rams "must-win" games might seem a reach most seasons, I’m inclined to view those games as critical as any 2 regular season games played in recent seasons. What are your thoughts?

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