FanPost

Are you optimistic, or pessimistic, about Boys chances in 2014? I can't decide.

I think there are reasons for optimism going into this year, and there are reasons for pessimism. By the former I mean anything north of 8-8, and by the latter I mean anything south of that. Another 8-8 season would be the maddening in-between result we've come to experience under Jason Garrett. Where do you stand? After 2 pre-season games, I can't decide.

10 REASONS FOR OPTIMISM

1. Offensive line. This is a young line, with 3 first-round picks, that is already quite good, and should only get better and better this season and into the future. Not only do we have at least 3 potential Pro Bowl guys (if not this year, soon), but we actually have some depth on the inside at least. With a great line, the value of your skill players can get maximized, and Dallas is loaded with offensive skill players. A great line allows you to run your offense, and control games.

2. Dez Bryant. This guy could give Michael Irvin a run for best ever Cowboys receiver (though 3 rings will be hard to top). He's entering his prime years, where it may become very difficult to stop him. And with teams keying on him, it's going to open up a lot of options elsewhere.

3. We still have Tony Romo at QB. He's probably the most maligned QB in the NFL, but he's the key to making this offense work. The last time he had an offense this good was 2007, and I think this offense has the potential to be better than that one. I just hope he's willing to hand the ball off. The less he puts on his shoulders, the better chance the team has of getting where it needs to.

4. Running back quality and depth. We've had DeMarco Murray for a few years, and he's had some outstanding games. The issue for him has been health. With Randle and Williams, it's looking like Dallas may have two guys who can carry the load if Murray is dinged up, as well as banging out wins in the 4th quarter if we have a good lead. Lance Dunbar is the wildcard here. If he can stay healthy, Linehan is going to use him to create explosive plays. Best group in many many years.

5. Wide receiver quality and depth. Dez is the monster, but Terrence Williams, Cole Beasley, Devin Street, and Dwayne Harris will burn teams. I loved that swing pass to Harris last night. He's kind of the forgotten man, but give him the ball in space and watch him tear through defenses like he does as a punt returner. Williams had a long TD pass broken up by an underthrown ball, but he had beaten his man clearly down the sideline. And Cole Beasley is a nightmare matchup and chain mover extraordinaire.

6. Tight end quality and depth. It's no longer going to just be the Jason Witten show. Even if he loses a step, it looks like the Escobar pick is going to start paying off. I love how Linehan got both Escobar and Hanna down the field, which is where they should go when slower guys try covering them.

7. Scott Linehan calling plays and running the offense. I'd rank this higher, but we don't know for sure yet whether Linehan will run the ball enough to make this offense elite. We've seen over and over again that Dallas doesn't do as well if it becomes one-dimensional. So far, I've liked what I've seen in the preseason. We've run the ball well, we've used Escobar and Hanna down the field, we saw a great screen play last night, and Dez dominated in his one short outing.

8. Dan Bailey's extended range. Split-em Bailey seems as reliable as ever, but being able to kick FGs over 50 yards is huge, as there have been tons of Dallas offensive stalls on the 35 that should yield points, not punts.

9. The comeback players. As stocked and deep as the offense appears to be (except at QB, where I have no hopes for Brandon Weeden), the defense still seems thin and overmatched. But there are at least 4 comeback players who were out of the NFL last year who could return and make a real difference -- Henry Melton, Anthony Spencer, Josh Brent, and Rolando McLain. Plus, after 4 games we should see D. Lawrence and O. Scandrick making an impact.

10. Rod Marinelli as D-Coordinator over Monte Kiffin. Marinelli can't play, but he might inspire this D to play much better than last year. If he uses his CBs in more press coverage, where they tend to be better, it might also help.

10 REASONS FOR PESSIMISM

1. The defense is a mess. There are several other "defense is bad" reasons for pessimism, but at the top I'd have to put a feeling that the defense isn't close to being together yet. This means that it will have to be put together on the fly during the season, without the benefit of a training camp to develop cohesion and trust. You can't teach guys during the week of an NFL season. All you can do is put in a game plan and practice that. If the players keep going in and out, this totally disrupts any kind of continuity. And with so many young guys likely to make the team, there will be lots and lots of mistakes.

2. The pass rush is likely to be woeful. I posted a fanpost a while ago laying out the rather pedestrian peak sack totals for all of the linemen who might make the final roster. It's not pretty. The only guy on the roster who has ever had double digit sacks is Anthony Spencer, and we have no idea what kind of player he will be this year coming off his injury. Melton has also done well in the past, but is coming off injury and hasn't been in a game yet. George Selvie had a nice season last year, but was helped by the pressure Hatcher and Ware brought from the other side. Mincey's had 8 sacks once, but it was years ago. Maybe Marinelli can get something out of this group, but if he does, it will be a miracle.

3. The Cowboys depth is not strong enough to compensate for injuries. Did you notice last night after the "starters" went out, the Ravens started running the ball with ease? This defense needs to rely on at least an 8-man rotation up front, but what's the quality like after the first 4-5 guys? We all remember how many D-linemen Dallas chewed through last year. Will this year be much better? Look at the post about practice time missed. There is almost no one we're counting on who hasn't missed time. When guys go down, we also see the posts about how the Cowboys keep trading picks to move up, which reduces overall draft numbers, and thins our depth.

4. Turnovers are likely to be down. Last year, I correctly predicted that the turnover differential was going to be be up sharply. I thought it would be enough to propel us into the playoffs. Not quite. But it did get us to 8-8 when we otherwise could have been a 6-10 team. Our offense was top-5 in scoring, but only 16th in yards. Our defense was worst in yards, but not worst in points allowed. That was mostly due to a positive turnover differential. This year, even a modest slip could cost us several games. The preseason hasn't shown promise in this area.

5. Our schedule is brutal. With the NFC West on the schedule, plus New Orleans and Bears as our two wildcard opponents, and 4 of the last 6 on the road, it could get ugly. Washington is also going to be better; the Giants might be harder to beat, and who knows how we'll fare against Philly. We also have to go to London.

6. If Tony Romo goes down, the season is over. There are those of you here who have some hopes for Brandon Weeden. Don't count me in that group. The guy is overmatched. He has a decent arm, but he just doesn't make decisions quickly enough, which means he holds the ball and gets sacked, or feels rushed and makes bad decisions (i.e., turnovers). Bad-back Romo is the key to hope for the season. None of us know how that's going to turn out.

7. We are very weak at safety. I'm not sure how many NFL teams JJ Wilcox or Barry Church would start for outside of Dallas. They aren't the worst pair in the NFL, but neither are they near the top. Behind them, Jeff Heath can't tackle or cover worth a damn, Ahmad Dixon is green, and who knows who the 5th guy is likely to be. Dallas has put its resources into cornerback over safety. Is this a mistake?

8. Penalties could kill us. Last year, Dallas seemed to make real progress in cutting down on penalties. In last night's pre-season game, this seemed to rear its head again, with holding calls right off on Tyron Smith and Zach Martin, multiple holding penalties on the defense, and the killer roughing the passer penalty on George Selvie that turned a failed third down into the Ravens' only TD drive of the first half. This team doesn't have enough of a margin for error to overcome these kinds of mistakes. I think the new way they are calling holds and interference on DBs could be especially bad for us.

9. We are weak at linebacker. Without Sean Lee, and with Bruce Carter continuing to regress, Dallas is relying on Justin Durant, who missed a ton of games last year, and Rolando McClain, who missed all of them. McClain has the potential that made him the 8th pick in the draft, but it's still just potential. The steady guy here seems to be Kyle Wilber. Without good linebacking, Dallas is very vulnerable to the run, which just kills a defense.

10. Special teams is going to be hard pressed to be as good as last year. We think because this was a strength last year, that it will be again this year. This misses the fact that there has been massive turnover in the players who are on our special teams units. We saw last night that our kickoff coverage unit was horrible, while our own kick returners couldn't make the 20. On punts, we haven't seen Harris yet, but will we get the same blocking?

CONCLUSION??

Where do you stand? Do the reasons for optimism outweigh the reasons for pessimism? Are we looking at a potential playoff team, or one where the wheels might come off in a plunge to the basement of the NFC East? Or somewhere in the middle, where we've consistently been under Jason Garrett?

I'm not sure yet where I stand. I have a harder time seeing a playoff run than I do another middle-of-the-road finish. And I think the team is far less prepared for an injury to Tony Romo than it was with Kyle Orton as backup. The offense looks to be a powerhouse, but if the defense doesn't get at least some stops, it may put too much pressure on the offense, or force it to abandon the running game that should be a real strength. All that seems pessimistic.

But, it's also possible the defense will come together once everyone is back and able to contribute - Spencer, Melton, Terrell McClain, D. Lawrence, Scandrick, Claiborne, Carr, Rolando McClain, Josh Brent, etc. The season largely hinges on them being at least middle-of-the-pack, at least in terms of scoring D. I think I need these last two preseason games to go there, but I think it's possible.

WHAT SAY YOU??

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