I've been on a bit of a fanpost streak, with this being my third post today, and fifth in the last few days. Please check out the other ones here, here, here, and here. If I had the time to keep this pace up, I might have applied for a front page writing position when they last asked!
This one is a bit of a "get this off my chest" rant about what Dallas needs to do to have a shot at putting together a string of success, with multiple years in a row of making the playoffs instead of sitting home.
1. STOP BETTING THE SEASON ON TONY ROMOS' HEALTH
With Brandon Weeden, Dallas has it's worst backup QB in many years, and one that cannot be expected to win regular season games, much less a playoff game. He was 1-6 in 2013 after being 5-10 in 2012. Yet Dallas made this choice KNOWING that Tony Romo's back has been deteriorating for at least a couple of years, and he's now 34 years old. In retrospect, I wish Dallas had drafted Jimmy Garoppolo in the second round of this draft. They could have kept their 3rd round pick, and let Garoppolo and Weeden fight it out in training camp and pre-season. Garoppolo has easily outperformed Weeden in pre-season, which means we could have kept him and let Weeden go. We'd have our QB of the future, with 2-3 years to groom.
Since Dallas didn't do that, it's going to have to do it next offseason. Weeden has no future. He's already in his 30s, and won't be good enough to win with - ever.
2. GET OUT FROM UNDER THE CURSE OF "DEAD MONEY."
Dallas is carrying an NFL high of $23 million in dead money this year. Here's the link. It's because of D Ware ($8.5 million), Jay Ratliff ($6.9 million), Miles Austin ($2.75 million dead money this year, $5.1 million dead money next year) and others. Meanwhile, our NFC East rivals are carrying $10.6 million (Washington), $9.4 million (Eagles) and $6 million (Giants). No playoff-likely team in the NFC is within $10 million of us.
What does that mean? It means we have to cheap out in free agency, which prevents us from filling holes properly, with competent, healthy players.
I'm glad that Dallas bit the bullet this year and decided to eat a ton of dead money in order to try to get ahead of the problem. However, we aren't out of the woods yet. It actually looks WORSE in the next few years because of the Tony Romo contract. We have Tony Romo carrying HUGE dead money levels for the next 3 seasons. $49 million this year, $27 million next year, $11.6 million in 2016, and $5 million in 2017. But there's a bigger problem here, because Romo's cap hit next year is $27.7 million, which means Dallas will have to convert that to bonus money and extend the dead money years. Is Tony Romo likely to be a #1 QB in 2017 at the age of 37?
Dallas absolutely has to have a very cheap #1 QB to plug in by then, so it can afford to cut Romo and split his cap hit over two years.
The other large future dead money guy is Brandon Carr. Here's his contract details. If Carr can produce through 2016, Dallas will come out without any dead money beyond that point. If they cut him before then, they are looking at a $12 million hit in 2015 or a $7 million hit in 2016.
We don't have really have a "salary cap" problem; we have a "dead money" problem. Which means our salary cap isn't providing us with the player value it should. Unfortunately, because of Romo's contract, we're going to be in this boat for the next 3-4 years.
3. STOP RELYING SO MUCH ON PLAYERS COMING OFF INJURIES OR WITH INJURY HISTORIES.
Like "dead money," this is another area that saps the potential of the team. Look at our defensive line. The projected line hasn't been able to play even a single snap in pre-season, and many of the key pieces missed some or all of training camp. And Dallas knew this was going to be the case going in, with Anthony Spencer signed off microfracture surgery, and Henry Melton coming back from a torn ACL. We also brought back the Unicorn, Matt Johnson, despite two years of health failures (caveat - I did argue for keeping him last year).
Other injured guys on D? Sean Lee, who before blowing out his knee in OTAs, had never lasted a season. Mo Claiborne, who has yet to play in a pre-season game in his two years. Devonte Holloman, who was injured for much of his rookie year, and just saw his career end because of recurring neck injuries. We're also relying on heavily on Jason Durant, who only played a couple hundred snaps last year.
The result is a totally patchwork defense that doesn't get to practice and learn together during training camp. It will have to be put together on the fly during the season, which is not really adequate.
On the offensive side, at least we've let Miles (hamstring) Austin go. But we're still betting the farm on Tony (gimpy-back) Romo. And 3 of our 4 running backs have had season-ending injuries, and none has lasted a 16-game stretch.
This issue dovetails with the second one, with Dallas forced to find bargain players who come more cheaply because of their injury histories in order to save money. if we weren't carrying so much dead money, we might be able to sign players with better health records.
4. STOP TRADING "UP" IN THE DRAFT, SACRIFICING MULTIPLE PICKS FOR SINGLE ONES.
Here's an excellent blog post on the subject by Bob Sturm. Anthony Spencer - 3 picks, Mike Jenkins - 2 picks, Dez Bryant - 2 picks for Dez and a lower pick, Sean Lee - 2 picks, Mo Claiborne - 2 picks, D Lawrence - 2 picks, plus the horrific Roy Williams trade - 3 picks. 7 players for 17 picks and 2 lesser picks. For what? Only Dez Bryant has a real future on the team. Sean Lee might. (With Mo Claiborne's injury history, and bad play, there's no reason to extend him. See #3.)
This just kills roster depth. As you can see from this post on our roster, we need help in a LOT of areas. Dallas has done a great job with late rounders and UDFAs. But there's no question we'd be stronger with more players on the team drafted in the top rounds.
5. LEARN HOW TO RUN THE BALL EFFECTIVELY, AND THEN DO IT OVER AND OVER AGAIN.
I know "it's a passing league." That's such "common" knowledge that it's undebatable, right? Well, look at these tables. Here's 2013 run/pass ratio by NFL team. Guess who runs the ball more than they pass the ball? Seattle, almost 55% run. SF, almost 55% run. Carolina 50% run. Philly, almost 50% run. San Diego, 47% run. Cincy 45% run. KC, almost 45%. Green Bay, almost 45%. New England, 43%. That's 9 of 12 playoff teams. Indy, Denver, and New Orleans and New England are the only playoff teams that didn't run the ball 45% in 2013.
Who's near the bottom? Dallas, 36.44% run.
How does it look for 2012? Here are the stats. It's less run heavy than 2013, but these were the playoff teams that committed to the run, ranked by run percentage. Seattle, Washington, San Francisco, Minnesota, Houston, Denver, New England, Cincy, Baltimore -- all above 44%, with the first 4 above 50%. That's 9 of 12 playoff teams, just like 2013.
Again, Dallas was next to the bottom, at 35%.
Dallas finally has a strong offensive line, a deep pool of talented running backs, and a QB who needs to hand the ball off more for his health and longevity (see #s 1 and 2 above). It's finally time to run the ball -- at least 45% of the time -- if we want to make the playoffs. NO MORE EXCUSES.
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