FanPost

Pick 256 - 2015 Week #14 Report

It was the best of times; it was the worst of times. I entered week #14 hoping (and picking) for a four-way tie in the NFC East - Cowboys win and the other three losing. With all four teams at 5-8, it would bring back some memories from my first "I Did the Math", written in 2010 and showing how those Romo-less 5-8 Cowboys were mathematically alive for a playoff spot.

Bleep! Not only did the Cowboys lose, but the other three teams ALL won! Now, they're in a three-way tie and the Cowboys are two games back with only three games to go. This year's I Did the Math will be a little more challenging, but I'm not ready for mock drafts and looks to next season. I'm also not ready to turn my attention solely to my Spurs. I don't give them undivided attention until football season is over. It's not over.

This was a catastrophic week for most of us. There were some fabulous scores, including a pair of 13s. There was also ineptitude on the part of our consensus, as we floundered to a 6-10 record and gave up our season-long lead over the Front Page Writers consensus. Now what?

Who gets this week's Football Mensa award? Does it go to this week's top pickers, who navigated the mine fields and posted 13s? Does it go to this week's worst picker, who went 1-15 (I mean, how do you miss fifteen games and only get one right?)? I don't think I could miss fifteen games if I deliberately tried to pick losers. How about jhcrouch3, who is literally running away with the Pick Accuracy crown? He played the first nine weeks and has vanished. His accuracy back then, 0.6667, was a decent score, and had him in the top twenty. By avoiding these past tough weeks when scores plummeted, his score is starting to put some distance between himself and everyone else.

We had three games where 95% missed (DEN losing at home to OAK), 85% missed (CHI losing at home to WAS), and 85% more missed (BUF losing at PHI). Only one person hit the trifecta - getting all three of our worst losses right (WAS-PHI-OAK).

Congratulations to this week's Football Mensa - jalifia

Now, for this week's report:

After dipping below 200 last week for the first time ever, Pick 256 weekly participation rebounded some, finishing with 213 entrants. As always, we welcomed new players - thirty-three more this week - and now have 865 individual players who have joined us at least once.

Here is the Participation Table, tracking the first fourteen weeks:

Participation
Week Total This Week New This Week 2015 Total
1 557 557 557
2 463 83 640
3 392 27 667
4 346 43 710
5 293 13 723
6 245 7 730
7 281 29 759
8 221 9 768
9 206 9 777
10 203 10 787
11 215 18 805
12 211 14 819
13 199 13 832
14 213 33 865

After a splendid week last week, with only one player beating our consensus, the total opposite happened this week - only seven people did worse than our consensus, and 178 beat our consensus. What happened?

We had six solid wins, all with at least 80% support. We had four consensus losses where a third or more actually got those games right. So, our individual scores were better than our consensus. But, the other six losses had between 70-90% missing them. Those were killers, and many were impossible to anticipate.

Here are the results of our consensus preferences for each game in week #14:

Week #14 Results
Win Consensus Winners Lose
206 @ Kansas City San Diego 7
204 Seattle @ Baltimore 9
197 @ New York Jets Tennessee 16
195 @ Arizona Minnesota 18
189 @ Carolina Atlanta 24
178 New England @ Houston 35
Win Consensus Losers Lose
90 @ Green Bay Dallas 123
79 @ Jacksonville Indianapolis 134
76 Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 137
72 @ Cleveland San Francisco 141
67 New Orleans @ Tampa Bay 146
62 New York Giants @ Miami 151
51 @ St. Louis Detroit 162
33 Washington @ Chicago 180
32 @ Philadelphia Buffalo 181
11 Oakland @ Denver 202

As I mentioned in the open, our Pick 256 consensus is looking up at the Front Page Writers consensus for the first time this year. After splitting every game the first two weeks, we opened up a one-game lead, and have led by one to three games every week since. I warned in a comment on my last FanPost that we had two discrepancies this past week (the other fourteen picks were identical). We could either triple our lead, maintain our lead, or lose our lead. It came down to the final game Monday night. We had already lost the earlier discrepancy (we favored IND while the FPWs preferred JAC), and we had MIA on Monday night while the FPWs had NYG.

Last year, we trailed most of the season before rallying late and winning the head-to-head consensus contest. Can we again rally and take back "our" lead in the remaining games?

Here's the table tracking the weekly consensus scores of Pick 256 participants and the Front Page Writers:

2015 Pick 256 Consensus / Front Page Writers
Week Games Pick 256 Wins FPW Wins
1 16 11 11
2 16 7 7
3 16 13 12
4 15 10 9
5 14 9 9
6 14 9 9
7 14 9 9
8 14 10 10
9 13 7 6
10 14 4 4
11 14 7 9
12 16 10 10
13 16 13 13
14 16 6 8
Total 208 125 126

I'm having a tough enough time scoring without missing weeks. I've been caught again this week by someone who missed the first two weeks. I have started naming names of those who had played every week, and have now missed their first, second, or third week. Many are near the top of the overall scoreboard, so missing a week pretty much eliminates them from any shot at the overall title. They can still remain near the top of the Pick Accuracy chart.

Here are the thirteen-week players who missed week #14:

4evercowboy, daboyz21, HowleyAtTheMoon, milehightexan, and Smax17177

Four of last week's first-time missers returned this week. However, four did not. These have missed two weeks after playing the first twelve:

chappycav, EFtheGiants, ptp39, and Ryan Kelling

We have one eleven-week player who missed the past three weeks. Dcowboy8, we miss you.

The same goes for our one ten-week player who missed the past four weeks. FloridaBoys, it isn't the same without you.

As mentioned up above, jhcrouch3 has missed the past five weeks after playing the first nine. I wonder if all is well with him, or if there is an issue - family, job, finances, etc. - that is preventing his participation. He is milking it, however, in the Pick Accuracy table. His absence has caused him to jump out of the pack, posting the highest pick accuracy by not playing and not dropping when everyone else's scores are falling like rocks.

I point these out because I don't like to see regular participants suddenly disappearing.

Buoyed by a host of new players, we reversed our steady decline, and had 213 participants. Despite our lousy consensus score (only 6 right all week), and a poor average score (8.178), we had some great scores at the top this week.

Our top scorers this week put up 13. Both missed TB and DEN, one missed IND (lost at JAC) and TB (lost at home to NO). Congratulations to CTCowboy and goddard55. Six more doubled our consensus with their gain-ground-on-the-field scores of 12.

I normally don't call out the week's worst scorers, but this week, the usernames demanded it. Look at the last two scores in this week's table. Take a look at the last two names. I would say that notquiterite is not quite right. And, gonfishin is, if memory serves correctly, the first to ever miss 15 games and only get one right. Which one did he get right? KC, who almost lost at home to SD. That's the only game he got right.

Here are the week #14 scores of all 213 participants:

Week #14 Scores
Entrant This Week Entrant This Week Entrant This Week Entrant This Week
CTCowboy 13 delta quad man 9 JB 8 Holyroof 7
goddard55 13 dentltek 9 JDobermans 8 ibleedcowboublue 7
Dallasdave1966 12 I'm_people_too 9 Jebediah Flibberbrush 8 karenborts@gmail.com 7
erasmo634 12 jimmy.marshall2 9 klkmainiac 8 lyraleo 7
frank stanford 12 john lucio 9 makeit6 8 MAEGA 7
HeelCairo 12 jwdge 9 maragath 8 mahenza 7
jalifia 12 Lajitas Lava 9 Millard Fillmore 8 Mikhaili 7
Powers93 12 Lcdano24 9 momtiller 8 muskokacowboy 7
Aggie Man 11 LoboTX 9 MontyMoose 8 NutriaBoudin 7
AzDbackfanInDc 11 lucke 9 MS Cowboys Fan 8 since '66 7
benray53 11 Markythearky 9 MUTTS 8 Starfire6 7
Blue & silver 11 newwallOD 9 nreyesjr02 8 tbar1 7
carguy102 11 oddsbettor 9 OldStray2-Dog 8 Tennessee_Jed 7
Jessy S 11 Oldeschool 9 Pagrebo 8 thesirknight 7
just-the-facts 11 PrfBrain 9 PAPAGDAVIS69 8 Thinkman 7
Katana 11 Reno Cowboy 9 qazx 8 TNCowbyfan 7
ounceler 11 Ride Together, Die Together 9 qcisco 8 tyriq654 7
Truebluedcfan 11 RoSHa 9 rainmaker411195 8 wildtigger2 7
westmodelmarket 11 scottysd 9 Rajohnnn 8 adamjamessaul 6
APerfectStar 10 Shadowcat 9 revellyre 8 apprentice_curmudgeon 6
BaylorBrianL 10 shooter09 9 Roun2It 8 Chad Loveland 6
claybridge 10 Sir Robin 9 scotscowboyfan 8 Charitylee@gmail.com 6
Eswara20 10 slowmotion80 9 Sean N 8 CowboyInLA 6
Gregory_Regularly 10 Starheel42 9 sixrings09 8 DalaiLuke 6
hbtc 10 TRAVLR 9 Soso 8 Dithanial 6
HTTR 10 Troy 9 Speedy1211 8 Dr Carl 6
k@s! 10 Uriahchase 9 stanthecowboyfan 8 earl 6
lenboy 10 UTcowboy 9 Stevefromerrick 8 Erock908 6
Max2 10 waltont23 9 Supherbyus 8 Hammeron1 6
MinasIthil92 10 WilmurToya 9 Tallgrass Prairie 8 Jeffkuhn1@hotmail.com 6
Mordregard 10 33lmitch 8 The Sethnicity 8 j-man 6
NCstar 10 4thdownhero 8 Tigercowboy 8 kethry1313 6
oldboysfan 10 50yrcowboy 8 tmaeus 8 Mark Barrington 6
Rdbull1 10 aaa61aaa 8 Vancity Cowboy 8 Normrock 6
Realist Larry 10 AKCOWBOYFAN 8 vavavance 8 Nova84 6
rrm1954 10 ansky23 8 vmorano 8 Sabrina 6
SICLAW 10 banananas 8 yushay bohra 8 Sandmann 6
starmesh23 10 Benthere 8 1Bullseye 7 Smitty14 6
switters023 10 bigoljimbo 8 1MissouriCowboysFan 7 snipeb41 6
Terry 10 BOWAC1 8 Az_dave 7 TazJr89 6
The Tower 10 Bud 8 BWaj22 7 tenkin 6
Tr1v1al 10 Canadian Cowboy_74 8 camrin55 7 Timmy G 6
Yellowbeard 10 chadrow 8 cap2vator 7 Trent Schoneweis 6
YumaCactus 10 Densa 8 cow2boys 7 vectorspace 6
bartman 9 DJ Mad 8 CowboyOcelot 7 webbyradio69 6
BayouCowboys 9 dtwmm 8 CowboysNation 7 Witten mittens 6
boys.camncrew 9 enogueras 8 cowtownNcowboysfan 7 ac_services@live.com 5
burrito electrico 9 FrankyC07 8 damnarab2 7 beastbois22 5
c.matson18 9 Fred G Samford 8 DarthGrumpa 7 nulfo 5
CapitalT 9 GalTex 8 dcfansinceiwasababy 7 Paul Schork 5
Cowboy Joe 9 Glenstorm68 8 duffer33 7 JayY006 3
CowboysFan_Nepal 9 gwzahn7 8 dw.criswell@yahoo.com 7 notquiterite 3
cwby4lf 9 hookerhome 8 dWhisper 7 gonfishin 1
DandyDanny 9

Our scoreboard has been dominated by two players for half of the season. Either oldboysfan has been on top, revellyre has been on top, or they have been tied. No one else can get within two games of either of them.

That changed this week, as oldboysfan pulled away, revellyre faded, and Aggie Man rode his fourth straight double-digit win to catch revellyre and tie for second place. Unfortunately, the rest of the field is slowly dropping back. There are three more games separating the second place tie and fourth place. Sixteen players have now surpassed our consensus (125), and are fewer than ten games out of first place.

Here are the scores of all 865 who have played at least once this season:

2015 Pick 256 Full Scoreboard
Entrant Overall Entrant Overall Entrant Overall Entrant Overall
oldboysfan 135 cradily55 67 Bobboluga 18 MFFLWhoWontEverPullADeandre 10
Aggie Man 132 ICanSeeJerryWorldFromHere 67 codydoser 18 ModernDayCowboy 10
revellyre 132 SHDad 67 Divinelysilver 18 Momoney8822 10
1Missouricowboysfan 129 Hobbes42 66 LET300ZX 18 MVaughn93 10
Katana 128 ArgentinaJr 65 tkena 18 Nicolás 10
Millard Fillmore 128 BishopWest 65 ToddJ 18 nomad555 10
Normrock 128 Disciple027 65 ahillaker 17 nvme4evr 10
gwzahn7 127 JonnyDanger 65 bigcheez01 17 Pokes4ever 10
I'm_people_too 127 viciousphilpy 64 Blackwulff 17 rick.croissette 10
MinasIthil92 127 bdub91 62 Colonel Duke Lacross 17 rrm1954 10
Rdbull1 127 oddgood 61 dashington 17 Specific 10
Starheel42 127 RobP S.A.T. 61 Enja 17 suddendeath88 10
cwby4lf 126 TheRedWunder 61 GeeManne 17 Tex-Mex 10
dtwmm 126 BigBad Joe 60 Glory Daze 17 TheIronCowboy09 10
mahenza 126 Cisco79 60 hophead929 17 TMoney_1674 10
Roun2It 126 FBH1636 60 kartmanj 17 Trbingbc 10
aaa61aaa 125 indus_creed 60 Ludawg70 17 USMarineVet 10
bartman 125 Mordregard 59 MAESTASJ5798 17 Wojo 10
Blue & silver 125 rptril 59 OmahaCowboy 17 68DOG 9
Max2 125 toke08 59 SpanishHarlem 17 Bigttech 9
Reno Cowboy 125 Nord15 58 tabennett5438 17 Bradford216 9
Benthere 124 Pnut Gallery 58 thepainster 17 cdeakins0788 9
cap2vator 124 Truck2015 58 tjack321 17 coffeesodabeer 9
ibleedcowboyblue 124 BC3 57 2doubledrops 16 Cold Beer 9
Realist Larry 124 Funoldman 57 Bvanzanman 16 Craigthomas5747@gmail.com 9
Trent Schoneweis 124 Jesse-GA 57 cardsandguitars 16 dapiercy70 9
Truebluedcfan 124 amkaam051203 56 ctwhynot 16 delta quad man 9
c.matson18 123 FullMetalAg 56 Dankdabe 16 Deztiny84 9
CTCowboy 123 DallasCowboys1960 55 Doc_J 16 DWDRUMR 9
lenboy 123 Goody4 55 Gary Morris 16 EJ_FAN50 9
Ncstar 123 BigHat in NewTexas 54 Jeff Landrith 16 erock 9
PAPAGDAVIS69 123 DalaiLuke 54 jetpoker1 16 fear_the_star 9
PrfBrain 123 DemBoyz88 54 MCross212 16 fernie c 9
Ride Together, Die Together 123 jayrosser27 54 mfoster 16 Flyeaglesfly 9
Stevefromerrick 123 Rohpuri 54 papichulo 16 freightgod 9
Terry 123 delete6673 53 Rick322 16 HappyGilmour 9
thesirknight 123 marcelookobe 53 rt1691rt 16 hellonwheels 9
jwdge 122 ReaperMadness 53 Westtp 16 huds5321 9
MUTTS 122 Mattattack 51 Charitylee@gmail.com 15 i\nb7 9
Pagrebo 122 ROD 51 DeMarcoFan29 15 Jackie23 9
Sandmann 122 BigAl86 50 DGxl86 15 john lucio 9
Sir Robin 122 DeAndre is a Pussy 50 MontysCowboys 15 Lako 9
UTcowboy 122 Jim Vance 50 Omar Little 15 LandryWazzaHornToo 9
ansky23 121 GunsUp 49 thorns 15 Lawham83 9
CapitalT 121 mik888 49 tk1011971 15 ledick 9
earl 121 Nap 49 WichapiOyate! 15 Loab 9
Frank Stanford 121 Niland76 49 Zak 15 MeatPopsicle 9
LoboTX 121 tman9476 49 1youngwiz 14 Modernjosh 9
Mark Barrington 121 Old Frog 48 Bigspoon 14 Oldtexasguy 9
starmesh23 121 rhbgsherb 48 cowboykid 14 Pantera 9
TazJr89 121 shooter0909 48 ELDS 14 Pkenny1046@yahoo.com 9
Timmy G 121 ginge159 47 Mr.Amazing 14 poppaskeeter 9
tmaeus 121 pugbuddy 47 Raymon945 14 PuckFilly 9
cowtownNcowboysfan 120 Big_Country 46 Roro Brown 14 Rayman2434@@aol.com 9
duffer33 120 San Antonio Al 46 wheelz909 14 RipCityBlazin420 9
Fred G Samford 120 cahbro32 45 AndyJ53583 13 rlm92227 9
goddard55 120 DoubleAgent008 45 BigD_83 13 ROYALFLUSH 9
maragath 120 Haribo 45 Byrdie 13 Scott McDowell 9
Rajohnnn 120 Jalifia 45 CoCo 13 small change 9
scottysd 120 Jfinch027 45 Cowboys4lyfe 13 StillStorming 9
Shadowcat 120 JollyRancher 45 CTRealdeal 13 streetse 9
since '66 120 RReed43 45 Enzzo Jr 13 taa49er2001@yahoo.com 9
Vancity Cowboy 120 BlueFlash 44 Go rafa 13 Tanner Choate 9
camrin55 119 transmogrifier 44 Herman 13 Tetower 9
carguy102 119 HonorTheStar 43 John neiderer 13 The_Leftside 9
CowboysFan_Nepal 119 Brasher 42 King of the Eagles 13 thelastpatriot 9
DarthGrumpa 119 chrisvegas 42 Raptizzle 13 therealjdj 9
enogueras 119 Jackson Smith 42 Thestarsshinebright 13 Tuan Huynh 9
JDobermans 119 rainmaker411195 42 tutx88 13 Vic Stone 9
kethry1313 119 aat2326 41 will03 13 waltont23 9
stanthecowboyfan 119 EduardoColon 41 wizkidbill 13 WilmurToya 9
1Bullseye 118 FanSince_64 41 brookln231 12 Wiseattack 9
Canadian Cowboy_74 118 florida dodger 41 Castaway42 12 xboxdre 9
klkmainiac 118 King Man 41 Clint.Underhill 12 Yoshicopter 9
lucke 118 LightningFast67 41 CoreyAdkison88 12 4thdownhero 8
RoSHa 118 adamkacp 40 CowboysNJ 12 69DHynes69 8
slowmotion80 118 Asburystrider 40 cowgirl22 12 Amold 8
Uriahchase 118 BWaldrep 40 crowboy 12 bartoh 8
Witten mittens 118 LizardState 40 dhenri99 12 BartonHsieh 8
j-man 117 meangrant 40 Donald j scott 12 bigtiny 8
Sean N 117 bullnuke 39 Donilama 12 bkeith71 8
apprentice_curmudgeon 116 BurntOrangeBenjamins88 39 dowdj 12 Blue Crew 8
Densa 116 B1llyP1lgr1m 38 erasmo634 12 BreezyJBarberino 8
GalTex 116 CowboysFan_4_Life 38 Es 12 Call4randy 8
hbtc 116 jgoddard8409 38 Fryguy22 12 cb1214 8
HowleyAtTheMoon 116 jordanch68 38 Gabby T 12 cgp16 8
just-the-facts 116 Junkyard Dog 38 hardhitten82 12 chadrow 8
shooter09 116 thelunatic 38 HeelCairo 12 chuck-D 8
tbar1 116 Toast can post 38 HEpennypacker 12 coleslaw34 8
Tennessee_Jed 116 Wildhair 38 irvingcowboy 12 creelll 8
Yellowbeard 116 benray53 37 JayGilly97 12 crj2012 8
APerfectStar 115 coolmajaka 37 JT1878 12 Daddy Cool 8
az_dave 115 S.Fisher 37 leo.lara.718 12 dallas4life 8
boys.camncrew 115 Splyle 37 lonewolfz28 12 dallasindc 8
hookerhome 115 BarbarianLou 36 lucky.expert 12 dcsalem14 8
MS Cowboys Fan 115 ROWDY GARCIA 36 MBoehm 12 DkGottiline33 8
Tallgrass Prairie 115 ScottB1985 36 MikeV 12 Dremont 8
Bud 114 makeit6 35 Passthedamnball 12 FrankyC07 8
Nova84 114 nealmcb 35 penater 12 gokepo 8
sixrings09 114 nepacowboy 35 p-town cowboy 12 Golfjohn 8
The Sethnicity 114 Nikeorlipstick 35 Robert Gutierrez 12 GreenMtnCloud 8
Troy 114 Rathos 35 Scott_Partridge 12 Hiles_BigD#09 8
dentltek 113 WeDemBois 35 seadog75240 12 Hoss98271 8
Dr Carl 113 BR47 34 skalathil 12 IcyVeins 8
Glenstorm68 113 MidKnightDreary 34 TCWilly33 12 IrishP1 8
Jessy S 113 DarkKnight88 33 Texhorns 12 jamiebeers11 8
Lcdano24 113 LRogue 33 Wreck'emCowboys 12 JB 8
Tr1v1al 113 zad 33 andrew 11 Jbezie23 8
4evercowboy 112 Zubius 33 Arigata 11 JKolar 8
50yrcowboy 112 DayLate$$Short 32 Backspin.hegone 11 jose 8
NutriaBoudin 112 Fighter15 32 BigDinTX 11 kloostee 8
Smax17177 112 Ispeakredneck 32 bprince81 11 LeCardi Johnson 8
BWaj22 111 neon greon 32 cancel99 11 Lindavaldes 8
CowboysNation 111 NY-COWBOY 32 cart 11 Ludawg69 8
jimmy.marshall2 111 eldofin 31 Cartr1dgeBased 11 marados 8
Mikhaili 111 Luc in Chile 31 cd-41 11 Matthew Hardy 8
newwallOD 111 ringking 31 Chrisman 11 -Maverick- 8
TNCowbyfan 111 CDMac24 30 Dallas Dave 1966 11 NineToesBlogging 8
CowboyInLA 110 cowboyofthenorth 30 DallasORL 11 njmiller21 8
Markythearky 110 DemMyBOYS 30 david.sunlin 11 NYGForever 8
OldStray2-Dog 110 eyelikeaces 30 dcfnlv 11 Oh Snap 8
snipeb41 110 Frammis 30 DECOWBOY 11 qazx 8
YumaCactus 110 Jbilskie1 30 Demboys46290 11 scary_cowboy 8
BOWAC1 109 Johnny-Boy 30 derrick2960 11 Sipe17 8
Cowboys Win 109 ketom1220 30 dexwheeler 11 Skillzby3 8
k@s! 109 KTC1 30 Drive47 11 Smummm 8
switters023 109 mtibus 30 Dsilli 11 Soso 8
TRAVLR 109 Nations 30 DWombat 11 swanhooch 8
Chad Loveland 108 NCHeelsBoysFan 30 Fletcherbooth@bellsouth.net 11 tmillner0682 8
Paul Schork 108 neithan20000 30 Fullhouse 11 tom68 8
Cowboy Joe 107 Shaymer 30 Gar 11 vavavance 8
MontyMoose 107 Tony Marez 30 Hi5wadey 11 vmorano 8
scotscowboyfan 107 bcomets 29 Joego38.jw@gmail.com 11 wgr56 8
holyroof 106 Briley Fuller 29 Joey2zs 11 WiseGuys 8
muskokacowboy 106 Drjaliver 29 Jomac 11 yobwoc 8
Oldeschool 106 E.J. Lucero 29 jppalmer1284 11 Z0827 8
Supherbyus 106 radomane 29 KenOak 11 adrian.arroyo.108 7
adamjamessaul 105 snath 29 kevinhaji 11 arg 7
CowboyOcelot 105 Steve1968 29 kid1856 11 BigDnb 7
Lajitas Lava 105 TheTraverse 29 latking 11 bks316 7
ptp39 105 Through Thick And Thin 29 Llama_from_Dallas 11 Canadian Cowboy 7
DandyDanny 104 tony_supporter 29 LordOrr 11 dallaskid917 7
burrito electrico 103 Utmodisette 29 louluvball 11 Daniel Griffith 7
quinduno 103 wayne.tanner.58 29 maxdallasfan 11 Dri 7
tenkin 103 AzDbackfanInDc 28 mikedmartin 11 dw.criswell@yahoo.com 7
WilliamC 103 BlueFalcon14 28 NickyNineToes 11 ffxsnpxn 7
yushay bohra 103 Chuck Sisco 28 njc003 11 Fm17 7
Jebediah Flibberbrush 102 coachjjr 28 oeg76876 11 Fryguy2231 7
milehightexan 102 hfd14c 28 Oleysoccer11 11 James197099 7
banananas 101 KRO 28 Raven20 11 Jmilt80 7
chappycav 101 TCullen88 28 richte42 11 karenborts@gmail.com 7
Dithanial 101 trevorDinc 28 rpainterj 11 Kathleen jones 7
SicLaw 101 Wdcoker1954 28 scraig2015 11 lyraleo 7
daboyz21 100 connery 27 splitbtw 11 MAEGA 7
D-Bomb 100 Cowboys63 27 stevena852@gmail.com 11 MSPorscheGirl 7
dcfansinceiwasababy 100 Donny84 27 SUMMONE4645 11 redlabel 7
EFtheGiants 100 Mathewstcb 27 test 11 Rswelalien 7
timani 100 SlaxOK 27 The Final Dez-tination 11 sandi 7
calmadhd 99 10centjimmy 26 Tmcg00 11 Sean Sullivan 7
The Tower 99 Azrakal 26 treythaman 11 Shoots90 7
qcisco 98 CaliforniaAggie 26 Vegas Cowboy 11 shortycool500 7
notquiterite 97 clearwall 26 winton1963 11 sjshell1 7
AKCOWBOYFAN 96 DJ Mad 26 Yannigan 11 strobman 7
Thinkman 96 mpolino 26 Zrb50 11 toolman63164 7
Gregory_Regularly 95 Trufus 26 ahug 10 Trublu81 7
momtiller 95 cow2boys 25 amazingguy 10 Truck Driver 7
Ryan Keeling 95 jmoody68 25 ambi 10 tyriq654 7
Dcowboy8 94 Merc WithA Mouth 25 ashanem 10 Windmill 7
westmodelmarket 94 True Blue-liever 25 bellaspoppy2012@gmail. come 10 Winniebini 7
Effinefferseffeneffed 93 Dallas Cowboys fan 24 BeWareOfDa88Ghost 10 Balzac4 6
Speedy1211 93 gcorneli24 24 BigDaddyB 10 BigEasy 6
BayouCowboys 92 Jackie22 24 Bignate 1911 10 Carlo69 6
Flowerman1dallas 91 Jcgallagher1 24 BradyTucker 10 cbf4life 6
Starfire6 91 JeffBroChill421 24 burmoodisland 10 Champs 6
Dobanion 90 Loren L Smith 24 Carpet Farmer 10 dale tisdale 6
Wfldude@gmail.com 90 Roger Williams 24 Corona38 10 dallasmadness 6
wildtigger2 90 Whak 24 cowboy of the north 10 DC forever 6
bigoljimbo 89 BoyfromOz 23 Cowboymark 10 Erock908 6
doubleleg 89 Divinelysilver&blue 23 cowboys winu 10 Fred Ward 6
oddsbettor 89 BaylorBrianL 22 CSteez903 10 Hammeron1 6
vectorspace 89 DorieStreet 22 Cutlermatt 10 icebowl68 6
dWhisper 88 Jakuando 22 DallasStarTk 10 jawmo 6
jhcrouch3 88 RAMASON 22 DavidGtripleD 10 Jeffkuhn1@hotmail.com 6
Silverblue 85 amorgan641964 21 DC4Lyfe 10 Jgonz5266 6
T Zig 85 bigdan 21 Dcuff 10 jwgordon 6
Upfrunt 85 eightball 21 DefenselessNUN 10 Raywhite76 6
DoomsDay Dub 84 iv 21 demaxx1 10 Sabrina 6
FloridaBoys 84 kaevando 21 DemigodH 10 Sacatomato Horn 6
Hav157 83 oaktree1992 21 dirtycallahan 10 saudifan 6
Howleyesque 82 Powers93 21 Double T 10 Smitty14 6
nreyesjr02 80 smashmouth9473 21 dougm 10 stellarowl12 6
AnderJ86 79 tattooed cowboy 21 dpyburn 10 Thanh Le 6
Marquis00 78 BrooklynSpur 20 Dre0023 10 tleroy1217 6
behind.enemylines 77 claybridge 20 Eswara20 10 webbyradio69 6
JJ for President 76 DEL1SLE 20 fedecs 10 WILB21 6
Papa Hendu 76 Desert Cowboys 20 fubanger 10 williemel 6
SoCalCowboysFan12 75 Evil.Dr.Porkchop 20 geneb 10 ac_services@live.com 5
wittenfan 75 jrmysell 20 Grizzy C 10 beastbois22 5
Tigercowboy 74 slspf2 20 Halconegro 10 cheez01 5
angie'sdad 73 Waterfall88 20 Hejbr 10 Dallasjenny1969 5
Dallasdave1966 73 austin.j.5 19 Hobsoncherry 10 jaz22@att.net 5
JJ's evolution 73 badboyz 19 Howabouttheboys 10 nulfo 5
Spaceball 73 DocOcho 19 HTTR 10 SDTrueblue 5
StarJohn 73 Farrah's daddy 19 illcowboy 10 texasrangerfan 5
YaBoyRyan 73 gabrielau23 19 Jedamac 10 WO Jefe 5
cOUboy12 72 jockmeister 19 JJQB12 10 BrooksN 4
Dealataunt 72 LovecraftMan 19 Johnmckee9002@gmail.com 10 clovehedidthat 4
jtiddahr 72 NorthStar99 19 jsrdc 10 cuzo956 4
meisternance 72 ounceler 19 KAYCEEWIN 10 ewturn08 4
damnarab2 71 pb1976 19 kcwjr1973 10 Sam 4
DezBrogden88 71 Robsa 19 kvonkoe 10 wm1990 4
33lmitch 70 StarloverinWNC 19 liquidblake 10 Fubar1911 3
Johnny Cleanpants 70 Str8outtaAk 19 Lo2ken 10 JayY006 3
Vector_41 69 The_Ineluctable_Kruppe 19 LOCALPRES 10 texasboy1967 3
dandeogden 68 TheYoungin_DT 19 Mark Porter 10 maguilar 2
Kwikwetlam Texan 68 Zmen 19 Mercury55@gmail.com 10 gonfishin 1
cjs.93 67

My final table each week lists Pick Accuracy. This permits any of you who have missed a week to see how your scores measure up against those who have played each week. I calculate it by dividing your total of correct picks by the number of games you entered picks. If you missed a Thursday night game, and O.C.C administered grace by allowing your other picks to count, that one is blank, and doesn't count as wrong.

I don't count picks per week because of byes. One week had thirteen games, one had fifteen games, six had fourteen games, and the other nine (first three, final six) all have sixteen games.

Last year, I included many inactive players, whose infrequent participation allowed for some inflated scores. The more one plays, the more likely he will encounter tough weeks, and not just cherry-pick the "easy" weeks.

This year, I have begun to list everyone who has participated at least 60% of the time and has a pick accuracy of at least 60%. After the rough weeks we just endured, that list has shrunk. We were down to sixty-two and sixty-four the past two weeks. This week, it took nine weeks of participation to meet the 60% threshold for minimal participation. We lost a few eight-week wonders, and a few others whose scores tanked this week. Only forty-two qualified this week.

As mentioned earlier, our leader played the first nine weeks and has disappeared. Congratulations in absentia - again - to jhcrouch3. When he last played, he was in the top ten, but his score has held up as our scores have plummeted. Our former second place, Marquis00, is gone, as he stopped playing after eight weeks. APerfectStar and Cowboy Joe swapped places this week being ahead of and behind oldboysfan.

Our consensus score is 125 after fourteen weeks. That makes the bottom of this table, with just a smidgen over 60% accuracy. Those who have missed time can compare their accuracy and see where they would fit compared to the full-timers.

Here are all forty-two who have played at least 60% of the weeks, and have gotten at least 60% of their picks right.

2015 Pick 256 Top Percentage (minimum nine weeks participation and 60% accuracy)
Entrant Percent Wins Weeks Entrant Percent Wins Weeks
jhcrouch3 0.6667 88 9 Markythearky 0.6111 110 12
APerfectStar 0.6534 115 12 gwzahn7 0.6106 127 14
oldboysfan 0.6490 135 14 I'm_people_too 0.6106 127 14
Cowboy Joe 0.6485 107 11 MinasIthil92 0.6106 127 14
Aggie Man 0.6346 132 14 Rdbull1 0.6106 127 14
revellyre 0.6346 132 14 Starheel42 0.6106 127 14
Ncstar 0.6340 123 13 Hav157 0.6103 83 9
Fred G Samford 0.6250 120 13 BOWAC1 0.6089 109 12
Cowboys Win 0.6229 109 12 Canadian Cowboy_74 0.6082 118 13
1Missouricowboysfan 0.6202 129 14 cwby4lf 0.6058 126 14
YumaCactus 0.6180 110 12 dtwmm 0.6058 126 14
D-Bomb 0.6173 100 11 mahenza 0.6058 126 14
timani 0.6173 100 11 Roun2It 0.6058 126 14
Dobanion 0.6164 90 10 HowleyAtTheMoon 0.6042 116 13
Katana 0.6154 128 14 calmadhd 0.6037 99 11
Millard Fillmore 0.6154 128 14 The Tower 0.6037 99 11
Normrock 0.6154 128 14 aaa61aaa 0.6010 125 14
1Bullseye 0.6146 118 13 bartman 0.6010 125 14
klkmainiac 0.6146 118 13 Blue & silver 0.6010 125 14
lucke 0.6146 118 13 Max2 0.6010 125 14
jimmy.marshall2 0.6133 111 12 Reno Cowboy 0.6010 125 14

Again, I invite you to come back to this page throughout the weekend for my updates (comments) as the other games progress.

Week #15 contest is already open. Please post your picks before the Thursday game kicks off, or you will miss out on having your picks count for each game.

Look for I Did the Math sometime this weekend.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.