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Off season Analysis: How To Get Dez Signed In a Hurry!

ne of the most important things in negotiations is the same as in any "sales" situation and that is to "overcome the objections." Let's look at what the stumbling blocks that are holding up the signing of Dez Bryant and see if there are some things that can be done about that.

Bryant has said publicly that he is concerned about his "Security", and on the flip side, the Dallas Cowboys are concerned about guaranteeing money that could be at risk if Bryant got suspended or injured, so those are two of the main objections to getting a deal done. There are two other big ones such as where Bryant should be "slotted" as far as his value goes and how to protect against decrease in performance due to age and physical drop-off.

So, let's look at these concerns and see where the real obstacles are. First, how can the Cowboys take care of Bryant's concern about his security. If Dez gets injured this year then he could be cut with an injury settlement and that $12.8 million that he is slated to get this year under his franchise tag will be all that he can count on.

The Cowboys also have the same concern about injury from their side of the ledger. If they guarantee money past this year and Bryant gets a career ending injury after a new contract was done, then the Cowboys are on the hook for all that money.

The solution for this dilemma is simple, either Dez, the Cowboys or both of them can take out insurance against a possible injury that may prevent him from being effective. It is done all the time.

"...both the teams and the players can purchase insurance if they wish to cover against a career-ending or season-ending injury.

In recent years, some high-profile college players, including the likes of Andrew Luck and Tim Tebow, often purchased insurance policies to cover any potential injuries in their final college seasons that would have kept them from an expected NFL windfall."

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_23671826/nfl-teams-players-both-often-get-insurance-potential

Next, there is the problem of just where to slot Bryant as far as what he is worth. If you look at the current contracts it is very apparent that Bryant is not worth the almost $50 million guaranteed money that Calvin Johnson got but it would be reasonable to give Dez something in the $30 - $40 million range.

Both the Arizona Cardinals and the Detroit Lions have given out seven-year and eight-year contracts in order to make the dollars fit into the salary cap numbers. But, is Bryant a bigger gamble than those two guys? Rick Gosselin of The Dallas Morning News had some interesting thoughts:

Since gaining those 1,411 yards in 2011, Fitzgerald has yet to catch 1,000 yards of passes in any of his last three seasons. Since gaining those 1,964 yards in 2012, Johnson fell off by almost 500 yards in 2013 at the age of 28 and by 400 more in 2014 at the age of 29. Fitzgerald and Johnson are paid to be the best receivers in the game, yet neither player ranked among the NFL’s top 30 in catches last season.

I believe there’s a reason for this. There has long been a wall for running backs. There are only so many hits a body can take and by the time most running backs reach the age of 29, they have hit that wall. There’s generally a dramatic falloff in production thereafter."

Dez Wants To Be Paid Like Larry And Calvin

To mitigate the above concerns, it will be prudent for the Cowboys to pay Bryant most of his guaranteed money in the first three years, so if something negative happens, then at least they can move on sooner-rather-than-later.

And now, that leaves us with the last concern....how much is he worth? Is it better for the Cowboys to make a deal before two other high profile receivers sign, or after they sign? If the Cowboys wait until after Demaryius Thomas agrees to his new contract, they may find that the Denver Broncos will over-pay for Thomas because of his "perceived" value. The question about Thomas is how much has he benefited from having Payton Manning throw him the ball? And will the Broncos play hard-ball with him, or will they give-in?

"According to Pro Football Focus, Thomas was below average in drop rate, finishing 28th out of 45 qualified receivers with a drop rate of 8.66 percent. He dropped a lot of routine screens and was very streaky.

In the Broncos' postseason game against the Colts, he caught five passes for 59 yards and dropped two passes on 11 targets. He didn't show up when the Broncos needed him most; his streaky play got the best of him."

Letting Demaryius Thomas Walk?

Will Bryant's agent Tom Condon make the case that Bryant is better than Thomas? If the Cowboys can sign Dez before Thomas signs I think that may be their best route. However; will the Cowboys point to the contract that Jeremy Maclin signed this year as the "true" value of great receivers and then play hard-ball?

"The Dallas Cowboys Dez Bryant and the Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas were supposed to ink mind-blowing, cap-busting, guaranteed-dollar laden contracts when the NFL opened free agency earlier this week.

But both the Cowboys and Broncos employed the franchise tag and the hype proved anticlimactic with neither Bryant nor Thomas, but former Philadelphia Eagle turned Kansas City Chief Jeremy Maclin winding up with the biggest contract for a wide receiver this season.

Maclin inked a five-year, $55-million deal with $22.5 million guaranteed, just edging the deal Torrey Smith got from the San Francisco 49ers by $500,000.

The 26-year-old Maclin exploded for a career-best 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns off 85 receptions under head coach Chip Kelly’s offensive schemes, but evidently the seven-year veteran’s price tag was too high and he didn’t fit into the wild, and perhaps confusing, plans of the Eagles." - "NFL 2015 Free Agent Wide Receivers:"


The Cowboys could certainly reach a compromise and offer a contract in the $14 - $16 million a year range and provide him with more guaranteed money than he would get under the franchise tag for the next two years and then hope that Bryant will not let emotions get in the way of a fair deal for both sides.

If the only stumbling block is the amount of worth or value, I think that can be worked out with a back and forth "all-nighter" that Jerry has done before and that there is a good chance that Dez will be signed before the 15th deadline approaching, if they can get the insurance policy in force to ease Bryant's main fear.

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