So, I hear that you are planning to hold out of OTA's and you want a trade. Really? I must say that you have been in the league a total of four less-than-stellar years and now suddenly you think you have the right to holdout on the team?

Disappointing!

In the four years you have been in the league you have made one Pro Bowl, started all 16 games only twice out of your four short years in the league, and your production has dropped off each of the last two years. Last year, the Cowboys secondary couldn't cover a dead bug and you think you have the right to holdout this year? Listen, Mike, you had one pick last year with only 24 tackles in only 12 games; this was your worst production since your rookie year. The secondary was seemingly the primary reason for the team's drop off last year which ultimately cost your team the division title and the playoffs.

THIS INCLUDES YOU!

I can't understand how you can possibly feel a sense of entitlement after you have done...well, NOTHING!! You have never been someone who provided much run support and the most INTs you ever had in a season is five. Since then, you have had one pick in each of the last two years.

So the team brought in some secondary help via the draft and free agency and now you wanna cry, stomp your feet, and quit on the team? Who do you think you are, Albert Haynesworth? C'MON!

Winners rise to the occasion and stare a challenge in the face not go to bed and pull the covers over their head. Nobody said you were going to be cut from the team; the team just brought in some players to create some competition and add some depth to an otherwise swiss cheese secondary.

Last night I made some macaroni and cheese and asked my wife to hand me the strainer so I could drain the water; she told me I should just use the Dallas Cowboy secondary instead of the strainer.

Let me clue you in on something, Mike: Teams get better by adding depth to their roster thus creating competition. That's how teams grow stronger. That's how teams make it to the Super Bowl.

Instead of using this to make yourself better you want to stick your head in the sand? You're like Lebron James in the fourth quarter...you're wilting away like a dead flower.

This is what is wrong with the Cowboys as a whole. Certain players think they are the best thing since the invention of beer and wine, and when posed with a challenge you decide not to show up. Good thinking! That makes you look REEEAAL good to the other 31 teams in the NFL, Mike. I wouldn't want someone who avoids a little competition and I am sure the other 31 teams in NFL don't want someone like that either.

I can see you on a job interview now with your highly mediocre resume in hand:

"Mr. Jenkins, when posed with a challenge, how do you typically respond?"

"Well, first, I cry a little. Then when I run out of tissues I usually like to threaten to quit my job if things aren't done my way. Finally, when nobody listens to me, I typically enjoy not showing up to work at all."

"Thank you, Mr. Jenkins. NEXT!"

I cant help but ask, Mike, do you pee sitting down?

Man-Up, find your sac, and get your butt to work where you belong. The team needs you. This is where you got your start in the NFL and if you really think you are deserving of being a holdout why don't you show up to camp and let everyone see what you are actually capable of. Here's an idea, stay healthy for a whole year.

Yeah, I get it - you were hurt for much of last year and still did what you could to stay on the field despite your injury. Congratulations! That's the equivalent of me telling my boss I should get a raise because I came to work even though I had a cold for a week. Big Deal!! Who cares! Your supposed to do that. ITS YOUR JOB! You automatically assume that responsibility when you accept your job.

With the attitude you are showing everyone I would rather have Helen Keller take your spot. I know she can't see but she probably has a better sense of smell so she can just use her nose to find the ball.

You are part of a "team." Act like it!

Being in the NFL is a privilege; not a right. You are entitled to NOTHING and you need to show that you have what it takes to make it in the NFL before you "take your ball and go home" just cause things didn't quite go the way you want them to.

Get to camp. Show "pick 6" what its like to play corner in the NFL and help the team win a Championship. Nobody likes a quitter. If you want to whine, cry, stomp your feet, and create a feud then we will work on getting you a part on the Real Housewives of Dallas.

Otherwise, this is football; show us you got a pair and get to work!!

Signed,

SikandTiredof UrOvrInflatedViewofUrself

Rob Ryan is best known for running a defense with exotic schemes and creating organized chaos pre-snap to confuse offenses and disguise coverage assignments and pressure packages. But for his imaginative and aggressive designs to work as intended, Ryan requires players that are versatile at their position. Linebackers that can rush the passer as well as they can drop back into coverage, safeties that can cover man-to-man but also stack the box against the run, physical corners that are also agile cover guys, and defensive-linemen the can play various positions in multiple fronts.

For this to be possible, it means that Rob Ryan must covet smart and athletic prospects, those that can learn and understand his defensive plans and have the physical talent to succeed in the various duties. One-trick ponies won't do. While Ryan got few new pieces prior to the 2011 season, in 2012 the Cowboys drafted mostly defensive prospects that were team-captains in college and had impressive physical measurables. We already took a look at the athleticism of the versatile safeties on the Cowboys roster. But when comparing the athletic markers of the Cowboys defensive-linemen with some of the most coveted prospects in recent years, it becomes clear this trend towards more versatile (and thus athletic) players is spreading throughout the defensive rosters.

There are obviously a variety of factors that influence draft positions of college prospects. College production, level of competition, interviews with coaches and players to ascertain character and football acumen, and NFL combine results are all vital in determining a prospects' potential. But as teams get further down their draft boards they must choose which of these variables are more important to their philosophy of team building. For the Jason Garrett and Rob Ryan led Cowboys, it appears character, football smarts and instincts, and athleticism are at the top of the list. Time and time again, the Cowboys have not shied away from using middle and late round draft picks on small school prospects that display these characteristics, opposed to drafting big school players with character issues or limited athleticism.

Many Cowboys fans have questioned the talent along the defensive-line and there has been plenty of criticism about the limited additions to this area of the roster. The only new lineman that saw considerable playing time in 2011 was veteran Kenyon Coleman and third-round pick Tyrone Crawford is the "highest value" addition the team has made along the d-line in the past two years. So what's the deal? Is the d-line better than many assume? Were problems elsewhere in more dire need of repair? Did Ryan see talent and potential in some young guys that fans rarely saw on game day?

I think the answer may be yes to all of the above. After the jump we'll compare the athleticism of Cowboys d-linemen to the likes of young stars like Ndamukong Suh and JJ Watt.

Continue reading this post »

Before I begin, I want to give a shoutout to my man, OCC for putting in a lot of time gathering an amazing amount of Pro Football Focus data, that has been used in this post....

We always hear the arguments, does the pass rush make the secondary better, or does the secondary make the pass rush better, and there are advocates on both sides of the coin. I decided based on some Graduate School work that I was going to determine how significant pass rush is when looking at the number of wins a team could obtain.

I used a statistical method called regression, which is used to measure how dependent one variable is upon another. This creates 2 values that are important, the first being R-Squared which tells you for example how much of a teams win total is explained by the amount of pressure they put on opposing QB's. The other is the P-Value of the independent variable, in our case Pass rush, this tells you essentially whether or not that variable is statistically significant to determining the result.

The method, after the jump.

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When a player in the NFL makes the jump from upper echelon to elite at his given position, it usually comes after a big event. Things like winning a ring or breaking a long heralded statistical record come to mind. At the very least, he is talked about in glowing terms by during any sports analysis, even if he is on a losing team.

Cue Tony Romo. Romo hasn't had things exactly fall that way for him. He has only one career playoff win to his credit, hasn't topped the 40-touchdown or 4,500-passing-yard marks and has never been named to an All-Pro team. Because he is on the Cowboys, and has been seen spending time with Jessica Simpson, Tony room is constantly in the spotlight. When he does well, we all hear about it. Yet, when he does badly, as everybody is prone to do at times, it gets more media attention than it otherwise would. However, when we evaluate things from a purely statistical angle, we can see that Romo is among the best in the league.

Tony Romo's 2011 stats:

Romo was ranked third overall for completion percentage, behind only Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. I'd say that is some pretty good company to keep for an NFL quarterback.

I know that many of us have heard the saying; Liars use statistics and statistics lie. While there is some truth to that statement it bears further examination. Statistics can't lie, they're only facts. We can be deceived however if we use the statistics incorrectly. One of the reasons I like stats like completion percentage and passer rating better than some other more frequently quoted stats is because they give a better representation of what the quarterback actually produces. Tony room stacks up among the best in both of those important categories.

.

High Total QBR

Last season, Romo ranked fourth in the league in ESPN's Total QBR metric with a 70.1 rating, behind only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. This system is incredibly difficult to excel in because it accounts for a wide variety of factors and is thus relatively immune to the statistical vagaries that can sometimes throw off other metric measurements.

Many years of top-flight statistical production

Romo hasn't just been doing this for one year. He's not the guy who came into the league with an unorthodox style and is only excelling until people figure out how to play against him. According to pro-football-reference.com, Romo is tied for fifth in NFL history in career yards per pass attempt. In an era where it is becoming more and more important to stretch the field, this is a very telling statistic. He also ranks tied for second in career adjusted yards per pass attempt, second in career adjusted net yards per pass attempt, sixth in career completion percentage and is the leader in net career yards per pass attempt. Romo ranks seventh in the league in quarterback wins since 2006, despite missing 13 games in that time, and had four fourth-quarter winning drives wins last season -- giving him 14 for his career.

The Cowboys don't know how to quit

The Cowboys' offense has the tools to be one of the best in the NFL in 2012. In addition to a solid receiving corp in Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, Dallas possesses a top of the line tight end in Jason Witten who is a nightmare for any defense. His ability to open up the middle of the field makes the quarterbacks job a whole lot easier.

But we know that a good passing game is never going to be enough. Dallas ranked ninth overall last season in rushing YPA. A healthy running game like that helps to open up the pass game.

Combine those offensive elements with the makings of what could be a vastly improved defense and it means Dallas head coach Jason Garrett should be able to be even more aggressive in his play calling, a prospect that should cast fear into the hearts of every defensive coordinator in the NFL.

I'm not suggesting that the Dallas Cowboys will be on the experts list of free sports picks to win the NFC East. But given the factors listed above, Romo is not only a top-5 NFL quarterback now, but he should continue to be one this season and into the future.

In recent news, the Cowboys defense led by Rob Ryan has been tagged as one utilizing "multiplicity." Last season, it was usually defined in terms of Ryan's need for players with "versatility." A few decades ago, these same concepts were discussed as the revolutionary defensive-schemes of Tom Landry and his development of "flex-linemen." In all instances, it was about the conceptual designs of defensive-fronts and how the defense would attack the line of scrimmage.

While Tom Landry is known for creating (if not perfecting) the 4-3 defense in the NFL, personally, I also consider him a forefather of modern 3-4 defenses. What Tom Landry was doing was finding ways to make his defensive-fronts more flexible, creating multiple fronts to disguise and vary how the defense would overwhelm the offensive-line. It also allowed his players to excel in gap recognition and Landry's read-and-react defensive philosophy. Landry would move around some defensive-linemen (Randy White, especially) and usually had two of them off the line, thus allowing the defense to choose where to "set the edge" and complicating blocking assignments for the offense. In effect, by creating the "flex-linemen," Landry opened Pandora's Box on multiple defensive-fronts. The days of the conventional bull-rush were replaced by more intricate pass-rush and gap-penetration schemes, and eventually led the NFL to classify and track sacks as a statistic.

In the first preseason game of 2011, Rob Ryan's Cowboys defense opened up the year with a tribute to Tom Landry and the flex-linemen. While it wasn't exactly a formation Landry would use, the concepts were very similar...and something Rob Ryan regularly tries to do with his organized chaos. Rabblerousr summed it up quite well in his post about multiplicity, including Jason Garrett's statement:

Mr. Jones mentions the multiplicity. We play a lot of multiple fronts. Hybrid type fronts, where it looks like we might have three-down [i.e., 3-4) personnel in there but we play it as a four-down [i.e., 4-3], and a lot of teams in the league do that. We feel good about that, so a lot of these players are not necessarily the fencepost defensive end, five technique, every down - that's not what we're talking about.

And similarly with our nose tackle, with Jay Ratliff, he's very rarely in a zero nose, meaning he's lined up head-up over the center. He does a lot of different things in our fronts. I think Rob Ryan does a great job providing the variety within our fronts and the versatility of our defensive linemen is a big part of that.

By using varied and hybrid fronts, not to mention the pre-snap chaos, Ryan can have his defense both confuse offensive-blocking assignments and adjust to be more effective against the specific offensive-formation. When Ryan has two down-linemen and then pre-snap Anthony Spencer or DeMarcus Ware put their hand on the ground to become the third, which of the two takes on this assignment will usually depend on how the offense is lined up. Depending on who goes in motion or where the strong-side blocker settles, Ryan's defense can adjust and shift the pressure, choosing where to set the edge rushers or overload the line of scrimmage.

Keeping this in mind, let's take a look at some formations from 2011 and which players may excel in these schemes in 2012.

Continue reading this post »

As I've discussed in my X's and O's pieces recently, many times, the game of football, or the success of a particular play or team comes down to execution.

One of my favorite football writers, Chris Brown, at smartfootball.com, has been working on a piece breaking down in detail, the Indianapolis Colts offense in the Manning years. No one can deny the success that those teams were able to have on the offensive side of the ball and as a team.

The post, found here, is top of the line stuff. I will continue to endorse Chris's work at Smart Football, because it is continually on top of the trends in football.

Chris analyzed hours of tape from the Colts 2006 Super bowl winning season, and actually broke down 2 games worth of the holy grail "all-22" tape that guys like me salivate for. He includes 30 minutes worth of cut-ups from these 2 games in the post.

The Colts’ offense was, structurally at least, among the simplest in the league for the entire time Manning was there. They used only a handful of formations — and almost always lined up Marvin Harrison (and later Pierre Garçon) split wide to the right and Reggie Wayne split wide to the left — ten or so core pass plays and just a couple of core runs. I know that sounds a little silly, especially since we’re constantly told that NFL playbooks are incredibly dense and huge and so on, but the Colts killed people with like fifteen, maybe twenty plays, and they did it for a decade. How?

He goes on to break down each of the core concepts found in the Colts offense through those years. In these you will find the Smash concept and the flat-7 concept (he calls it China), as well as the 4 Verticals idea I address in my attacking Tampa 2 post. As well as some other concepts I'll be getting to as we get into other zone coverages and different man coverages.

I hope you enjoy reading this post, and if you want to continue to deepen your understanding of the game, look around Chris's site some more. It is one of the best.

How do you build a strong defense?

Traditional thinking on the subject is that consistency of talent is more important for defense than it is for offense. The thinking stems from the idea that the offense has the initiative, it decides what kind of play it is going to run. Take for example the simple decision of whether to run or to pass, it's the offense that gets to decide. Therefore an offense can afford to have less consistent talent because if it has a great running back it can choose to run, if it has great WRs it can choose to pass. The defense, however, can't determine whether to run or pass therefore it needs to be ready for anything. It needs a secondary as good as it's line because if it's deficient, the other team can decide to take advantage of that weakness.

But is this really true? I intend to argue no after the jump.

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"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." While the philosophic truth by Santayana holds for the rise and fall of human civilizations, and some dark days in Dallas Cowboys franchise history, a more optimistic paraphrasing could read: Those who remember the past are empowered to repeat it.

At least that is what went through my mind while listening to a recent interview with Dallas Cowboys greats Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, and Emmitt Smith. They were all guests on the most recent Rich Eisen podcast. While few online clips can be found at NFL Network, turns out it's really quick and easy to download the full audio podcast for free.

The 30-minute interview is a rare sit-down with the "Triplets" of the Cowboys Dynasty of the early 90s. Besides the terrific first-hand nostalgia value, it provides a marvelous glimpse into the mind's eye of three NFL greats joining one collapsed dynasty and helping create the cycle anew. Imagine the pressure of renewing the shine of the Cowboys Star while rebuilding the house of Tom Landry under the spankin' new management and coaching of a couple of unstoppable forces. For those that did not have the luck to live it, well, those who dare not remember the past...

Within this fantastic window into the Cowboys franchise history I began to see reflections of the current changes occurring at Valley Ranch. As the discussion progressed, from Irvin being drafted by Landry and seeing the regime change to Jimmy Johnson and the addition of Aikman, to the drafting of Emmitt and then the introduction of Norv Turner, I kept hearing whispers of the past speak of the hopes for the present. While listening to the interview in celebration of the 20th anniversary to the '92 Super Bowl Champions, the first of the Cowboys dynasty, I began imagining the 10th anniversary of the 2012 Champs, with Tony Romo, Miles Austin, and DeMarcus Ware discussing the change to the Jason Garrett regime. And then I wondered about the 20th anniversary, with Sean Lee, Morris Claiborne, and Tyrone Crawford or Matt Johnson talking about when things clicked under the Rob Ryan defense.

Perhaps that is the optimist and story-teller in me getting out of hand, but follow the jump for clips from the interview and my ramblings on how they echo of the 2012 Cowboys.

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Checkout this claim by Deon Sanders:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/post/deion-rex-grossman-may-be-nfc-easts-best-qb/2011/10/10/gIQAUiY3ZL_blog.html

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Most Dallas Cowboys fans know that Arkansas oilman, Jerry Jones bought the Dallas Cowboys in 1989. One of Jerry's first tasks was to fire legendary head coach Tom Landry (and the previous administration). Jimmy Johnson was hired shortly thereafter, and the new regime of modern ownership of America's Team started. These new Cowboys won three Super Bowls with Mr. Jones as the Owner and General Manager.

Since the last Super Bowl this franchise won in 1995, Dallas has won two playoff games (Minnesota in 1996 [1995 regular season] and Philadelphia in 2010 [2009 regular season]). Many fans have blamed Jerry Jones for the longest period in franchise history without a championship. Numerous fans are enraged with Jones' function as the General Manager: where his primary responsibility is to add talent to the organization.

Jerry has shouldered the lion's share of the blame for failing to add quality players to the roster since the departure of Jimmy Johnson. But should the criticism leveled at Jerry Jones focus on the acquisition of talent on the field, or on his inability to discover the right coach to work within the administrative framework of the team?

Analyzing the drafts the Cowboys have conducted under Jerry Jones' guidance provides insight into the impact the head coach makes in the War Room. In order to provide a way to grade the drafts, the following scale was used:

For example, Tom Landry was the head coach during the final draft conducted before Jerry bought the team. Under Tom Landry, Tex Schramm, and Gil Brandt, the Cowboys selected Michael Irvin, Ken Norton Jr., and Chad Hennings. Michael Irvin earned a grade of 4. Chad and Ken each garnered a score of 3. Therefore, Landry's final draft earned a score of 10 (4+3+3). Obviously, that was an excellent draft.

On the other hand, the only players of note drafted by Dave Campo during his three year stint as Head Coach were Roy Williams (Safety), Andre Gurode, and Quincy Carter. Andre earned a score of 3, while Roy received a score of 2. Quincy Carter received the lowest possible score, a 1. Most players drafted do not warrant a score due to the insignificant contributions they made during their time in the NFL.

The scoring system rewards coaching regimes with discovering great players regardless of the round in which the players were selected. Bill Parcells has two undrafted rookie free agents included in his numbers: Tony Romo and Miles Austin. Kickers and punters are not included.

Notice that the three head coaches that worked with Jerry Jones over the last 23 years that have exerted their muscle in the selection of players have had significantly better drafts than those coaches that that have not (as per reports from Bryann Broaddus). Jimmy Johnson has obviously experienced the best drafts with Jerry serving as GM. Bill Parcells also had a good share of success with Jerry in the War Room.

As it turns out, both Jimmy and Bill combined to oversee only 9 of the 24 NFL drafts under Jones' ownership. Jerry did not enjoy working with Bill and Jimmy's mammoth ego clashed with Jerry's colossal ego.

Wade Phillips and Chan Gailey had moderate success assembling talent over the course of six drafts, but with the exception of two players (Flozell Adams: 3, and Sean Lee: 3), the other ten players graded received a score of 2 or less. For the most part those coaches selected solid players, not difference makers. Notice the Average Score per Player for Wade and Chan: a 2.125 and a 2.0 respectively.

Compare that score to the type of players Jimmy and Bill brought into the Cowboys fold. Surprisingly, Tom Landry's final draft compares to Jason Garrett's first two drafts if Tyron Smith (4), DeMarco Murray (3), and Morris Claiborne (3) develop and play as expected. If Claiborne develops into the play-making cornerback that he was at LSU, and DeMarco Murray builds upon an injury filled rookie season, Garrett's first two drafts look to be the greatest in the illustrious history of this great and proud franchise since 1989: Johnson's first two drafts.

Jason Garrett's draft picks still have a chance to raise his solid Average Score per Draft score. Bruce Carter and Tyrone Crawford should develop into starters, and could become great players in the mold of Sean Lee and Jay Ratliff.

There is a significant difference between a General Manager that fails to find talented players, and a GM that struggles to find the right head coach to work within the administrative framework of the organization. With Jerry's increased reliance on a head coach's input, the right head coach needs to have a strong background in personnel evaluation, as well as possess the typical proficiency with X's and O's and the ability to lead. Finding a coach that has excellent organizational skills that can provide the direction necessary to establish the foundational beliefs an organization utilizes to find success is hard enough. Finding a head coach that also boasts the ability to identify the talent necessary to win a Super Bowl is...well, an endeavor that obviously has taken Jerry at least 16 years.