Blogging The Boys: FanPosts

Are the Redskins the key to the division..?

2009-11-20T16:11:06Z

Conventional wisdom would seem to favor the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants all splitting their season series with each other; this would make all three of them 2-2 in the division when removing the Redskin games. I personally believe that these match-ups are going to work a little differently this year in that the Eagles are going to sweep the Giants; the Giants will sweep Dallas, and the Cowboys will sweep the Eagles, but the end result is the same; 2-2 for each of those 3 in the division minus the Redskins games.

Add to that the non-divisional games like Oakland, San Diego, and New Orleans. Both the G-men and Iggles have already lost to both the Chargers and Saints and I think it's reasonable to believe that the Cowboys will drop one of their games against these two.

The tricky part then remains who is going to lose to the Redskins because mark my words someone will. No team has ever gone winless in NFC East match ups and it's not going to happen this year either. I think it's reasonable to assume that the team (or teams) that loses to the Redskins will miss out on the divisional crown this year.

I say it all the time but I'll say it (or write it) again now; it's not who you play but who you play when you play them and I would have much preferred to have played the Redskins a few weeks ago then now. If there is any good to come out of the Green Bay game it's that the Redskins should face a more focused and motivated Cowboys team than they might have otherwise seen.

The Cowboy offense will likely have to be very patient on sunday as the points will likely be hard to come by.... At first.

But the defense should hold it's and eventually that Redskin armor will chink. Of course if the Cowboy offense can get out to an explosive start and build something like a 14-0 lead then the game could be over as the Redskins aren't really built to put a lot of points up quickly.

Garrett DOES Have a Running Problem

2009-11-19T04:02:44Z

Specifically, he never gives the running game a chance! Let me explain...

I went through the play-by-play of every Dallas game so far this season. And aside from seeing penalty after penalty called on the offense during the most inopportune moments, I also noticed that Garrett hardly ever calls two running plays in a row. Particularly on 1st and 2nd downs. I think that it could be worth it to run twice in a row on those downs. Even if you only gain a total of 4-5 yards total on thos two plays, that is still a manageable 3rd down. And chances are that Barber, Jones or Jones or a combination thereof would game 6-8 yards on two straight carries, further opening up possibilities on 3rd down. But after reviewing every offensive play, I could only find six plays when the Cowboys followed up a 1st down run of 5 yards of less (making it 2nd and 5 or greater) with another run, not counting plays inside the opponents 5-yard line or in run-out-the-clock circumstances. SIX TIMES!!! And two of those six plays were direct snaps to Choice! All the other playcalls were, of course, Romo pass attempts. Now, I'm not certain what the success rate was on those pass plays, but I'd guess they weren't wildly successful. All I know is that many times on these 2nd and 5 or greater, Romo would either throw incomplete, get sacked or there would be a penalty, putting the offense in a very difficult 3rd down situation. I suppose it is possible that Garrett has called consecutive runs but Romo audibled out, but we may never know exactly. All I'm saying is, our line seems to be big and strong and capable of just driving forward. Why not hand the ball off several straight times when the game is still close and see what happens?

Mike Jenkins Bicep Treatment

2009-11-19T03:09:18Z

I'm not sure what his status is, but in case you're curious, here is a photo of the treatment they are doing on his arm. I don't really know what those things are but it's interesting looking. Does anyone know what sort of therapy this is? I really hope he's fine, we can't afford to lose him just as he's starting to break out. Our CBs this year can hit, I love it!

Anyone scared Watkins must play again...?

2009-11-19T00:23:23Z

When Hamlin was out the first time it was a disaster! Watkins simply can't cover (SEE Kansas City Drive). W/O Hamlin our pass coverage is toast. Watkins is no better that old Roy Williams. Was ever a time this played even remotely close to capable back there? There better be scheme in place to help him because when he has solo responsiblity over the top he cannot runn with quality receivers. Thoughts? Anyone agree? I think this could be horrible!

Playoff Chances: Week 10

2009-11-18T16:15:39Z

I am back again to give you all an update on what exactly that loss to Green Bay did to us and our shot at making it to the playoffs. In case you don't know what I'm talking about, take a look back at my post last week which was my first of the season and will explain your questions about what exactly this is. Here is how the playoff chances in the league stands after week 10...

Team	Outcome	Total	Division	Wild Card
AFC EAST
Bills	L Conf	4.92%	4.24%	0.68%
Dolphins	W	20.49%	14.02%	6.47%
Patriots	L Conf	70.86%	66.45%	4.41%
Jets	L Conf	19.91%	15.29%	4.62%
AFC NORTH
Ravens	W Div	36.47%	7.43%	29.04%
Bengals	W Div	85.45%	71.82%	13.63%
Browns	L Div	0.05%	0.00%	0.05%
Steelers	L Div	59.20%	20.75%	38.46%
AFC SOUTH
Texans	Bye	32.37%	2.08%	30.30%
Colts	W Conf	98.74%	95.77%	2.98%
Jaguars	W Conf	38.24%	2.10%	36.14%
Titans	W Conf	1.30%	0.06%	1.24%
AFC WEST
Broncos	L	68.74%	53.45%	15.30%
Cheifs	W Div	1.15%	0.55%	0.60%
Raiders	L Div	0.22%	0.07%	0.15%
Chargers	W	61.87%	45.93%	15.93%
NFC EAST
Cowboys	L Conf	72.96%	48.03%	24.93%
Giants	Bye	39.99%	23.45%	16.54%
Eagles	L	49.31%	24.92%	24.40%
Redskins	W	5.73%	3.60%	2.13%
NFC NORTH
Bears	L Conf	13.91%	3.24%	10.66%
Lions	L Div	0.01%	0.00%	0.01%
Packers	W Conf	42.11%	2.72%	39.39%
Vikings	W Div	98.17%	94.04%	4.13%
NFC SOUTH
Falcons	L Div	41.97%	3.34%	38.63%
Panthers	W Div	17.06%	0.68%	16.38%
Saints	W Conf	99.55%	95.98%	3.56%
Buccaneers	L	0.16%	0.00%	0.16%
NFC WEST
Cardinals	W Div	81.15%	76.17%	4.98%
Rams	L Conf	0.34%	0.31%	0.02%
49ers	W Conf	32.21%	20.64%	11.57%
Seahawks	L Div	5.38%	2.87%	2.51%

In the AFC, no one is really challenging the Patriots for AFC East supremacy, the Bengals are starting to run away with the AFC North, the Colts have all but locked up the AFC South, and the Chargers have decided to put up a fight against the Broncos for the AFC West.

In the NFC, the Cowboys are the leaders in the East but the Giants and Eagles aren't too far behind. The Vikings have all but locked up the North, just like the Saints in the South. And there really isn't anyone to challenge the Cardinals in the West.

I would expect to see this season's first mathematical elimination this week or next (we could possibly do it to the Raiders on Thanksgiving) and the season's first playoff clinch could be coming soon as well.

And then here are the Cowboys chances over the entire season...

Opponent	Type	Outcome	Overall	Division	Wild Card
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Conference	W	44.81%	28.23%	16.58%
New York Giants	Division	L	33.61%	18.48%	15.13%
Carolina Panthers	Conference	W	41.80%	20.32%	21.48%
Denver Broncos	None	L	32.59%	11.96%	20.63%
Kansas City Chiefs	None	W	37.52%	12.66%	24.87%
Bye	Bye	Bye	38.11%	17.28%	20.83%
Atlanta Falcons	Conference	W	50.77%	24.53%	26.24%
Seattle Seahawks	Conference	W	64.16%	32.79%	31.38%
Philadelphia Eagles	Division	W	80.94%	53.29%	27.65%
Green Bay Packers	Conference	L	72.96%	48.03%	24.93%

And in chart form..

via i576.photobucket.com

So in the end, I think we can realize that this loss to Green Bay did not hurt our chances at the playoffs too much. What hurts is that we all know we would be in much better shape with a win. However, with a big division game against Washington this Sunday I can assure you that this time it will help or hurt our chances much more.

In a completely unrelated side note, I am a Cowboys fan that has lived in New Jersey my whole life, right in the middle of Giants and Eagles territory. I have attended a few Cowboys games in Giant's Stadium and even one in the old Veterans stadium (what a nightmare) but I am proud to announce that this Sunday will be my first Cowboys game as a HOME fan. I am flying in to see the behemoth stadium and the Redskins game in person. I am very excited, so they better win for me!

Thanks again to everyone for reading. Like I said, I will do this for a few more weeks if you guys are interested in this information, but once we get to the last couple weeks of the season it is a little pointless because everyone knows what needs to happen to clinch playoff spots.

It Isn't JUST About December

2009-11-18T07:29:37Z

It's about November and January, more than anything.

Sure, if we win out in December, we're probably golden. The problem is, 3 of our 4 December games look brutal.

12/6 at Giants

12/13 vs. Chargers

12/19 at Saints

12/27 at Redskins

Okay, I've said this before and, while I'm a huge fan, I see serious problems ahead with those first three games. Yes, even the Chargers, folks. The Giants and Chargers will both be finding their stride again (the Chargers already are), and they will have serious things to play for, just like us. Even the Redskins, in MD, might present an issue, if our confidence is shaken after a few losses.

I personally have gone on record as saying we lose all three. If it happens, the MSM will freak out, pointing to "December" again. Many of the posters here will freak out too. Everyone will point fingers.

But you see, it's already pretty easy to predict.

And while it would be bad, it's not everything. What people forget about is the "rest of November" (yes, there's life after GB).

While they are not gimmes (nothing is), wins against Oakland and Washington should be manageable. That makes us 8-3.

1-3 in December? We're 9-6 and probably right on the cusp.

January matters -- one game, against the Eagles, in Texas.

Win and in -- probably. Lose, based on the other predictions? We're gone.

So yeah, December matters. But November and January are key here, too. Seems obvious now, but it won't be at the end of the season.

I wonder if people are still wondering why I called ATL a must-win game? ;)

Anyway, my two cents. Cheers and go Boys.

More Witten please!!!

2009-11-18T01:58:10Z

It is hard to look at a guy who is projected to catch 87 passes and say that he is in a "slump."

But doesn't it seem like he is disappearing from games? In the past several years, defenses constantly had to worry about Witten finding a pocket in the zone over the middle and getting hit in stride by Romo for 35 yards. Now, we see him catching 6 yard outs on 3rd and 9.

Don't believe me? Here are some numbers to ponder. Last season, he had 14 catches of 20+ yards (12 and 10 the years before that), and this year he has only THREE (his longest reception is only 22 yards). He has only scored one TD--ONE! Another disturbing trend is his yards per catch--8.9 yards per catch compared to 11.8+ each year between 2006-2008. Think about that for a second: He is averaging almost 10 feet less PER CATCH. Stand up and pace off 10 feet for some perspective. Again, that is PER CATCH.

Dear Mr. Garrett: I know everyone wants you to get Roy Williams, Miles Austin and even guys like Ogletree more into the mix, but our #1 concern should be upping the numbers of Romo's "best friend" Witten!

To run, or not to run... That's Redball's dilemma

2009-11-17T23:22:09Z

Jason Garrett is the goat of the week.

The run was working! He doesn't seem to understand how Football works!

He should return to Football 101.

The sky is falling!

Romo's guilty! He always is! The best QB never to win a Playoff game (this one was too easy).

Finding scapegoats is easy.

Garrett quitted on the run even when it was working. Really? looking at the numbers, it's hard to agree...

Barber 13 yards in an off tackle run. Choice 11 yards in a direct snap. That's 24 yards of the total. The rest of the carries (9) went for a total of 21 yards. Feast or famine, with feast being the bullet in a single bullet Russian roulette...

Looking around the League, the teams that limit their opponents running games to a couple of good plays and mostly famine are the ones that rule the League stats. That's what the Cowboys have been doing.

Grant having a couple of good carries but his average was bellow 4 yards per.

McCoy had a 17 yarder, other than that he had 37 yards in 12 carries.

Etcetera.

The Packer wanted to stop the run and rush Romo along the way by clogging and shoothing through gaps in a 6 or 7 man line.

The Cowboys need a focused OLine.

The Cowboys continue to have problems with speed, if a team has a good pass rusher in the middle as an opposing Defensive Coordinator I would have him shooting through any inside gap between Flo and Colombo/Free... That's how bad the Cowboys have been, against the run and against the pass. Leonard Davis or Gurode against a 250 pounder LB shouldn't be that hard of a matchup, but it is...

Barnett (2 sacks). The Eagles lack a decent pass rushing LB but they had both DE shooting inside and they blitzed their safeties. Hawthorne (2 sacks). Nicholas and DeCoud (2 sacks).

If you have a team as sold to attack your gaps, you have to hit them in their mouths and that's through the air, beating the couple of players (or more) in single coverage, the Cowboys couldn't due to poor execution, bad hands, eyes (yeah, Roy, that's you) or whatever else...

The Cowboys have a problem that they need to fix, and running more isn't a solution, because they're seeing a lot of famine and it all starts up front.

NFL Power Rankings - Week 11 - Final Edition

2009-11-17T19:24:45Z

Here's the early edition of our weekly power ranking roundup heading into week 11.

As usual, the final update should be up by Wednesday night.

1. Major Media Networks & Affiliates

Pete Prisco at CBSSports.com: 7th (+-0)."Just when they start feeling good about the way they're playing, they go and lay an egg in Green Bay. Who was that in Tony Romo's jersey?"

Michael Silver at Yahoo Sports: 8th (+-0). "Yo, Jason Garrett: Did Marion Barber get tossed from Lambeau after the first quarter for making an inappropriate comment to Mike McCarthy, or did it just seem that way?"

NFL.com's Brain Trust of Experts: 9th (-1). Joe Theismann has the Cowboys 14th, Eagles 15th and Giants 16th. How's the leg, Joe?

NationalFootballPost.com: 9th (-2). "The ‘Boys couldn’t handle Lambeau Field or the Packers’ pressure, halting the winning streak at four."

SportingNews.com: 9th (-3). "Apparently, nobody in the NFC East feels comfortable with prosperity."

[update] Don Banks' Power Rankings: 10th (-2. "The Cowboys did very little right at Green Bay and came out of the game with a host of injuries to contend with, none bigger than the loss of offensive right tackle Marc Colombo with a broken left fibula/ankle. With Dallas in the midst of the three games in 12 days stretch it always encounters at Thanksgiving time, the health issue could be critical. But there is good news. The next two games are at home, against Washington (3-6) and Oakland (2-7). It won't take the Cowboys' A game to get to 8-3 as the always challenging month of December dawns."

Peter King in MMQB: 8th (-2)."In the category of feeble losses, Sunday's in Green Bay ranks very, very high."

Fox Sports: 10th (-2). "Nearly getting shut out a week after their biggest win of the season and as everyone was piling back on the bandwagon again ... it was just so Cowboys, wasn't it? Looking back now, wins over the 2-7 Chiefs, 3-6 Seahawks and a pair of struggling 5-4 teams (Falcons and Eagles) ain't all that and a bag of chips. The good news is that they have the Redskins and Raiders before a tough December of three division games, plus matchups vs. the Chargers and Saints."

ESPN: 10th (-2). "The Cowboys took a Lambeau Leap backward in the NFC East race by losing to the Packers on Sunday. (Clayton)"

2. Blogs & Other Media

[update] ColdHardFootballFacts.com 7th (-1). "Wait, the Cowboys ran the ball how many times against Green Bay? 14? Three of those by Tony Romo? Impossible. Gotta be a misprint."

ProFootballWeekly: 8th (-1). "Don't underestimate loss of ORT Marc Colombo."

[update] SBNation: 9th (-2). "Where has Jason Witten gone this year? While Romo still targets him plenty, Witten's yards per catch are at a career low, and he's been a non-factor at the goal-line. With teams keying in on Miles Austin and Roy Williams generally hit-or-miss, the Cowboys will need more from Witten if they're going to develop some offensive consistency. ( And losing RT Marc Colombo won't help either)"

[update] Zac Wassink at Associated Content is replaced by Fanhouse.com: 9th (-2). "Was Sunday's disaster in Green Bay a case of meeting a desperate team in their house or a sign that the Cowboys may be hitting a wall? The play of Doug Free, the young tackle replacing Marc Colombo, will have a lot to do with it. It would also help if Roy Williams stopped sucking so completely, but the ship may have already sailed on that front. "

Weii.com: 10th (-2). "Dallas lost starting right tackle Marc Colombo and starting safety Ken Hamlin in the loss to the Packers. These are two key players that could significantly impact the Cowboys if they can’t find the personnel to step up and fill these roles."

Walter Football: 10th (-2). "Let me get this straight... the Packers defense surrendered 76 points against the Vikings and Buccaneers. They couldn't stop Josh Freeman and Derrick Ward in the second half. Yet, they basically shut out a hot Cowboys squad that averaged 30.3 points in their previous four games without Aaron Kampman? I was going to ask someone to explain this to me, but after seeing Wade "Mr. Turkey Neck" Phillips' confused face again during NFL Primetime, I suddenly understood what happened. The only question I have now is what sort of cartoon was going through Mr. Turkey Neck's mind when the game was going on and ." Still ahead of your precious Eagles though.

Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk.com: 10th (-3). "The slow disintegration of the NFC East continues."

3. Statictics & Computer based rankings.

[update] AdvancedNFLstats: 5th (+1). Offense ranked No. 4, Defense ranked No. 17. This ranking model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates.

tom slick publishes his Rankings on SBNation's The Falcoholic: 5th (-1). He weighs offensive and defensive points scored/allowed relative to all other teams to determine his rankings.

Great Blue North Draft Report: 7th (-1). This site calculates rankings by first round draft selection order based on own and opponent W/L record if the season were to end today.

[update] FootballOutsiders: 8th (-3). Offense ranked No. 4, Defense No. 19, Special Teams No. 6. These guys adjust their rankings for opponent strength.

[update] Covers.com: 10th (-2). "Just when you thought the Cowboys were turning a big corner, Tony Romo puts up one of his stinkers. They can't longer look past the Redskins with Turkey Day on deck."

WhatIfSports: Cowboys 10th (-4). These guys simulate every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times, and use the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team, with updated rosters and depth charts.

Jeff Sagarin's NFL rankings: 11th (+1). These are rankings based on W/L record, points differential and schedule strength.

Here's how the NFC East fared:


	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week	This Week	Last Week
Advancednflstats	5	6	6	8	10	10	19	25
tom slick	5	4	10	3	17	17	19	21
Great Blue North	7	6	15	10	11	13	26	27
CHFF	7	6	14	9	16	16	25	28
CBSsports	7	7	11	9	12	13	27	28
ProFootballWeekly	8	7	11	9	12	13	25	26
Yahoosports	8	8	12	10	16	15	24	26
FootballOutsiders	8	5	4	2	14	14	21	22
SportingNews	9	6	12	9	15	15	24	26
NFP	9	7	10	10	16	16	24	28
SBNation	9	7	10	8	15	15	26	27
Fanhouse.com	9	7	16	12	17	17	27	31
NFL.com	9	8	12	11	15	15	25	28
Whatifsports	10	6	16	8	20	17	28	31
ProFootballTalk	10	7	13	11	15	15	25	28
ESPN	10	8	12	11	16	15	24	26
Weii.com	10	8	12	10	16	16	24	27
SI.com	10	8	12	9	16	15	24	26
Foxsports	10	8	14	9	18	17	26	27
Walter Football	10	8	14	9	18	17	26	27
Covers.com	10	8	16	12	15	16	26	26
Sagarin Ratings	11	10	19	16	18	17	27	30
Average	8.7	7.0	12.5	9.5	15.3	15.1	24.6	26.8

For a summary of all NFL teams using some of the same rankings, go to NFLpowerranks.com

I would like to extend a sincere thank you to Bill Belicheat

2009-11-17T01:41:19Z

Thank you Bill

If it wasn't for your decision on 4&2 in last night's game; the result was a failed conversion and it has become sports talk radio gold. I did not see dallas dominating the headlines on the national level, for once after a cowboys loss it was not front page news. Even the local media is not making too much hoopla over the game, the standard ones are out there but I remember the loss to NY and Den being bigger news; I know we do not venture outside of our blog here too often but it was a nice suprise.

Did any good come from the packers game?

2009-11-16T23:33:33Z

I know for the most part the game was extremely hard to watch. I t was almost unbearable. But, some good things did happen.

I know everybody is blaming RW for the loss, and he did make two huge plays that really cost us. But, he also got going a little bit and it looks like he may be able to really contribute during this last stretch. He created separation and put himself in position to make plays. Also it looked like he and Romo were on the same page for the whole game, which is the first time this year we've really seen that. Eventually he and Miles Austin will both contribute in the same game, and when that comes we'll be dangerous.

I thought Romo played pretty well despite being under pressure all game and having his running game taken away although we were either tied or down a measly 3-0. I know we were in 3rd and longs a lot, but we needed to run the ball much more, Marion has played well against the pack in his career.

I thought the defense played very well for a long time. They stopped the run for the most part and held the explosive packers to basically 10 points (that fumble put them against the wall). I liked what the defense did all game, but correct me if I'm wrong I think we had 5 staright 3 and outs, and any defense would get tired. I felt like they were on the field all game.

The thing I'm really cocerned about though, is Nick Folk. He had off-season hip surgery and hasn't been the same since he came back. I don't think its time to use beuhler but Nick's gotta start drilling kicks like he used to.

In all it was a rough game. And, we were completely outplayed. But, there were some decent things that happened that may improve us as a team in the near future.

Reason we have trouble with blitzers: Andre Gurode may not be smart enough

2009-11-16T23:33:28Z

The reason why we have trouble with blitzers may be this guy:

There was good reason why he started off here as a guard. Because he is just not smart enough to play center. The average wonderlic for a center is 25. Andre Gurode's is 15. The reason why centers tend to be the highest scoring players on the wonderlic is because they need to be able to read defenses and make line adjustments. Gurode may not be able to do that.

Grizz expressed his concern in '06's training camp concerning this very topic:

if he can conquer the mental aspects of being the center, there’s no way he won’t start the season as the #1.

Now I don't have any direct evidence that this is Gurode's fault, but I'm suspecting his lack of intelligence has a lot to do with it, and there is a history of it being a problem.

We got Lambeaued. Again.

2009-11-16T23:24:57Z

A lot of you had a bad feeling about this game, Spidey Senses were tingling all over this blog and rightly so. Before yesterday, the Cowboys were 1-5 at Lambeau Field. Average margin of defeat? 21 points. Now make it 1-6. We’ve been getting our butts kicked there since 1967 and yesterday was no different. We ran into a Packers team that was playing for the life of its’ season and our boys got beat up, they got beat down, they got straight up ~~Ramboed~~ Lambeaued. Should we have won the game? Yes. Could we have won the game even with our miscues? Absolutely. But their guys get paid to play and coach too and they just did it better than we did.

Our team is still first in the East and like Grizz said yesterday,

"Every once in a while you get kicked in the teeth in this game, that just happened to the Cowboys. It's what you do after the beating that matters."

No Victory Monday for us. So take a day or two to be pissed, hung over, depressed or however you handle a loss. Shake it off, rub some dirt on it and debate (with class) in the comments. Swear off MSM for the week and BTB will get you though…it does me.

A few things bothered me yesterday though that I hope aren’t signs of developing trends. And then there’s one thing in particular just plain ticked me off. Read on and I’ll explain.

“We Must Protect This ~~House~~ Quarterback!”
Over the last 2 games alone we’ve given up 9 sacks. Compare that to 13 sacks through the first 7 games. Lack of protection is becoming a problem and these sacks are more about being out schemed as opposed to individuals being out played. Philly blitzed HEAVY up the middle and from the backside, disrupted our offense and almost got the win. Green Bay copied them and did get the win. The book’s been written on how to slow down the Cowboys. It’s becoming a bestseller and until we show teams that we can pick up the blitz and make them pay, they’ll keep coming and coming and coming. I don’t know what the answer is but I know what it isn’t…moving linemen to different positions or specifically moving Flo. If we do that, get used to seeing more of Romo on his back or face planted by blindside sacks. Let’s go JG, you’ve got a gazillion plays on that chart, call the one’s that get Tony away from the pressure that we all know is coming from here on out.

“I Like Big ~~Butts~~ Points and I cannot lie.”
Through the first 7 games, the Cowboys averaged 28 points a game...among the highest in the league. Over the last 2 games though, they’ve averaged just 13 points. That’s a league low and won’t get us very many W’s if we don’t turn it around. Most of that has to do with the above item…heavy pressure disrupting our offense. Factor in penalties and the “Smash, Dash and Tash” mobile running on one of those small spare donut tires and you've got cause for concern. Long yardage situations and a sputtering running game makes for a pretty one dimensional offense.

“Shotgun and pass at the one yard line on 1st and goal? ~~Child~~ JG please.”
When did we turn into the Cardinals? I remember this from last season…didn’t like it then, don’t like it now. Line up our meat, let Cricket lead block and hand the ball to MBIII. If we can’t get 1 yard this way in a couple of tries with all the tonnage we have up front and a barbarian at RB, then it’s time to just head on home. And with the beating we were taking, ramming it down their throats just would have really felt good.

“Oh no he didn’t. Comon Roy!”
It’s bad enough that in a game of inches, Roy runs out of bounds last week. And we’re all well aware of his 2 miscues yesterday. But what chapped my hide to no end is after Roy scores his meaningless TD during trash time…there he is, on the sideline happily clutching his TD ball. Hey Roy, you personally made 2 drive killing, momentum changing blunders that featured you NOT clutching the ball. Your QB got pummeled in the pocket all day, your brothers were going down with injuries on both sides of the ball and your defense was sitting dejected on the bench even though they played half decent. The whole team was down…but not you Roy, you had your TD ball and your buck o’five in yards. Individual accomplishments over team? We’ve seen that movie before and don’t want to see the sequel. I love your production over the last 2 games and we’re going to need you big time if we plan on doing anything in December or and beyond. I'll give you a pass on this because after all that time losing in Detroit as a team, individual wins were probably the only thing to look forward to. But do me a favor, if you score again during the trash time of a sound thumping, just give the ball to the ref and head on back over to the sideline. Remember that we LOSE as a team too knucklehead.

This was the first game the Cowboys lost this season where there was no chance at the end of pulling out the win. There were no last minute heroics to cheer for, nothing to rally around, just the sound of teeth getting kicked in. How they pick up their teeth and respond against the Skins will tell us a lot about this team as we approach December.

Green Bay Game - They beat us fair and square

2009-11-16T19:31:54Z

I have been reading a lot of posts about bad calls, our penalties and sacks as if we beat ourselves. We did commit mistakes, but a lot of those were caused by the Green Bay offense and defense.

Green Bay beat us every which way. Consider this, Green Bay was sacked 4 times and had 12 penalties vs. our 5 sacks and 10 penalties. They overcame all of that, forced 3 turnovers and beat us. We forced no turnovers and did'nt do squat. Aaron Rogers converted first down after first down in their first touchdown drive, with two third down's over 10 yards. Aaron Rogers was on and Tony Romo was off. Romo could not find the blitzers and he paid for it.

The Cowboys had 140 meaningless yards after it got to be 17-0 and 7:30 of possession time. That means with 10:00 minutes left in the 4th quarter, we had accumulated 130 yards, 17 minutes of possession time and only 27 plays. They kicked our butts good. We were outscheemed, out hustled and they executed.Once they went up 10 to nothing, we seemed to fall apart further. If you look at our last 12 month losses, the Boy's seem to be front runners. Get behind and it is curtains.

I think the good thing out of this is this came against Green Bay and not against a division opponent. It also shows some more flaws that we have so they can be worked on. Washington is a good defensive team and they will be taking notes. Dallas was playing conservative on both sides of the ball and they are not good enough to do so against a good team.

The NFL Needs To Change Its Rule About Challenges

2009-11-16T19:19:14Z

Look, I’m not going to sit here and type away about how the Packers cheated, or how the refs were clearly against the Cowboys, and go boo hoo all over the screen.

I’m giving the Packers credit. That defense they prepared was amazing. I’m more angry at the lack of execution by Dallas, who should have trampled over the Packers.

However, I will say that they were lucky that this wasn’t a playoff game because the league screwed this one up.

I knew Dallas had lost when the fumble was ruled recovered by Clay Matthews. It was a horrible call, but I can forgive the referees, they are human, but what I cannot forgive is the insertion of an unfair and idiotic rule that effectively ended the Cowboys hopes of coming back.

Any reasonable and unbiased fan with a basic knowledge of football would realize that Felix Jones was obviously down by contact after he recovered the ball. He was rolled over and the ball bounced in the air and Clay Matthews barely recovered it.

However, the rules of the NFL state that teams cannot challenge the recovery of a fumble, which immediately infuriated James Williamson the writer as well as James Williamson the fan.

It is not so much that Dallas lost the game, it is so much that this rule could come and hurt another team. Dallas may have had a fighting chance with a 10-0 lead instead of a 17-0 lead, but I’m over it.

What I will not do, as a fan or as a writer, is keep quiet about a horrendous rule that obviously did not fit the Cowboys situation.

What if this had happened in the playoffs? Or in the Super Bowl? Does the NFL really need another version of the Tuck Rule controversy? Shouldn’t the NFL prevent those kinds of situations so they don’t have to break a team of players and their fans hearts?

As a fan, I could live with being beaten. What I could not live with is having a game that we should have won or had a real chance to win being taken from us because of some pencil-necked man in a zebra uniform with his stupid, destructive rule book.

Would the Cowboys have won? Maybe. Would the Cowboys have lost? Sure, they could have. But, we will never know because of a ridiculous rule that prevented a team from making a comeback. Granted, Dallas made mistakes, but does that mean the officials and their rules should join in on it?

I would rather have seen the Packers kick Dallas out of the stadium by their own power, not by the referees.

Jerry Jones stated that he understands why the rule is in place, but he still disagreed with the rule’s use in this game.

"I know why they have it because so many times there are piles and scrums so it gets really hard to see," Jones said. "But that wasn’t a play out in the middle of the field where you’d have a scrum."

That was from the Canadian Press among other sports articles, and Jerry is right. Even the referees admitted they screwed up.

The following quote is from Wade Phillips:

"They said because they ruled it a fumble all the way through, that I couldn’t challenge it even though we recovered the ball and our guy was touched and he knew the guy was down," Phillips said. "He said it’s just not, it’s something with the rule that you can’t challenge."

The bold part is very indicative of of proof. If a referee knows that a mistake has been made and a rule forbids him from correcting that mistake, then that rule needs to be changed. I’d argue the same thing if the Packers had lost that ball.

Again, I’m not being a sore loser. I’ll take the loss, but this rule needs to be changed for the sake of future games.

I don’t care if it was Dallas or Pittsburgh or even the Patriots, the referees should not be a factor in the game when they are supposed to be neutral and they should be allowed to correct their mistakes.

Anybody want to disagree?

James Williamson is also featured on http://www.nfltouchdown.com/

Dallas Injury Report: Columbo Not Looking Good

2009-11-16T19:06:44Z

via www.nfltouchdown.com

Not only did the Cowboys lose to the Packers this past Sunday, but they lost some players as well.

Starting right tackle, Marc Columbo, is most likely out for the season with a broken fibula on his left leg after severe contact with a Packer defender.

Columbo, up to that point, had not missed a start for the Cowboys and really was playing great. Last year, Dr. Z, the well-respected Sports Illustrated writer put Marc Columbo on his All-Pro team.

Columbo was recently signed to a long extension and he is obviously very upset with the setback.

After Columbo was lost, Dallas proceeded to allow a season high five sacks. Columbo was more than the right tackle, but also the emotional leader with a voice of a sailor. I listened to Marc Columbo on tape and he had a mouth nastier than rotten anchovy paste.

Columbo came to the Cowboys from the Bears after knee injuries shortened his time there. However, he came in 2006 and he earned his starting job in training camp and he did not stop starting till now.

Tackle Doug Free came in to replace Columbo, and hopefully he will start gelling with the remaining four lineman so that they can get back to the dominant form they had at the beginning of the year.

Now, when you break a bone in the leg that means your out for the season typically, but Wade Phillips has said that Columbo may have a shot at coming back, so he may not be placed on injured reserve.

Injured reserve is a list of players that the team makes up. These players are severely injured, most likely out for the season. The action of putting players on injured reserve means that the player cannot play this season. Even if he should get healthy enough later on during the year to play, he cannot play.

Injured reserve is separate from the 53 man roster. It was made that way in case a team had a ’series of unfortunate events’ and the team needs to continually have enough men to play for the team.

By putting Columbo on injured reserve, the team will have an extra roster spot so they can pick up another player, but on the condition that Columbo cannot play at all for the rest of the regular season or postseason as well.

I, however, don’t see Columbo avoiding injured reserve though. We are going into week 11 now and it could take four to five weeks minimum for Columbo to recover. Then, he’s got to be careful coming back from the injury or he could injure it again.

This was the worst thing that could have happened. Dallas has great backups at every position except offensive line and Jerry Jones was concerned about that from the start.

To view the rest, please go here

Seven Statistical Nuggets To Take The Edge Off

2009-11-16T12:44:47Z

Random statistical thoughts and musings as I seek distraction from the Packers game.

1. Does this make me a nerd?

During games I always have a nifty little Excel file open on my PC called 'Passer Rating' into which I faithfully enter the passing stats after every throw for both Romo and the opposing QB. Why do I do that? Well, apart from piping in with passer ratings during the open game threads, I like to keep a close watch on the Passer Rating Differential (Romo's rating - Opposing QB's rating). Here's why:

Dallas Cowboys Passer Rating Differential, 2009

	TB	NYG	CAR	DEN	KC	ATL	SEA	PHI	GB
PR Differential	+56.0	-84.5	+19.6	-50.4	+22.9	+75.5	+15.3	+27.3	-13.1
Result	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	L

Notice any correlations? Since 2007, with Romo under center, our record with a positive PRD is 26-1. The one loss coming in the fateful Arizona OT game in 08 (Romo: 116.2, Warner: 104.3) in which Romo broke his pinky. With a negative PRD, over the same period, our record is 1-11, the sole win coming in a game that rips a big hole in my statistical space-time-continuum, the 5 interception Buffalo Game in 07 (Romo: 39.5, Edwards 74.1).

Highest positive PRD: +82.1 in the week 9, 07 game against the Eagles (Romo: 146.1, McNabb: 64.0). Highest negative PRD: -84.5 in this year's Giants Game (Romo: 26.1, Manning: 110.6)

2. What exactly constitutes a balanced offense?

More often than not, the term 'balanced offense' is used when talking about the run/pass ratio. I would propose that a balanced offense is less about a run/pass ratio, but more about the ability to use multiple options to gain yards. In Cowboy land, we have started using the term Romo Friedly Offense to describe our game. Here's why:

Cowboys vs. Falcons: 5 players with more than 30 yards from scrimmage
Cowboys vs. Seahawks: Romo throws completions to 10 different receivers
Cowboys vs. Eagles: Five different receivers have at least 38 yards
Cowboys vs. Packers: Uh, lemme think about that a little more.

So far this season, 7 different Cowboy players have contributed more than 350 yards from scrimmage. Count 'em:

Cowboy Players with > 350 yards from scrimmage through week 10, 2009

	Austin	Barber	Crayton	Witten	Williams	Choice	Jones
Pass	632	88	417	438	429	132	56
Rush	11	473	28	- -	- -	262	304
Total	643	561	445	438	429	394	360

Now this may be impressive, but is it relevant? Wouldn't you rather have a Chris Johnson, Ray Rice or Adrian Peterson on your team? The correct answer is: only if it's your fantasy team.

Through week 10, there are 7 players in the NFL with more than 900 yards from scrimmage C. Johnson (1,353), Steven Jackson (1,146), A. Peterson (1,116), R. Rice (1,113), Maurice Jones-Drew (1,080), DeAngelo Williams (1,075) and Cedric Benson (925). Despite the Vikings' 8-1 record, the combined W-L of these players' respective teams is only 32-30.

In principle, it's good to be Romo-friendly. Here's a look at what a 'balanced' offense can do for your W-L record:

Team W-L record, ranked by number of players with > 300 yards from scrimmage, week 10, 2009

# Players >350	6+	5	4	3	2
Teams	DAL (7), NO (7), IND (6), PHI (6)	ARI, ATL, BAL, CHI, MIN, NE, NYG, NYJ, PIT, SD, SEA, WAS	BUF, CAR, CIN, HOU	CLE, DEN, GB, JAC, KC, MIA, OAK, SF, TB	DET, STL, TEN
W-L	29-7	61-47	19-17	30-51	5-22
Pct	.806	.565	.528	.370	.185

3. Mid-term Team Efficiency Report Card (3 nuggets for the price of one!)

[Caveat: Since it's quite a hassle to find all these numbers, all the stats in this section are through the Philly game only. I've added some stats for the Packers game where appropriate.]

It's just past halftime in the NFL, and we've seen all sorts of half-time reviews, which usually read something like this: "This offense scored an NFL leading number of touchdowns, that receiver had so many yards, this RB ran for even more yards, this team allowed a franchise low amount of points, etc.". So in this special mid term report card, we'll look beyond the absolute numbers of production and look at team efficiency, on both sides of the ball.

	"	I try to look at yards per play and turnovers as two of the keys to determine an efficient offense. You have to be able to get first downs to keep the football. "
		— Tony Dungy

Traditionally, efficiency has been judged by yards and points gained or allowed, but those numbers can be misleading.

Yardage alone doesn't mean a lot. The 2008 Steelers' offense finished 22nd in yardage, but ended up 12-4 and won the Superbowl. The Jets rank an impressive No. 3 in yards allowed this season, yet have only managed a very unimpressive 4-5 record.

Team efficiency can't be judged with just one stat, so here's where we take a deeper dive into the efficiency with the week 9 numbers, and look at three different groups of stats, Field Position, Drive Efficiency and Scoring Efficiency.

A. Field Position

	"	When you back a team up, you've got a chance of being successful defensively and that's really the only stat I care about. "
		— Joe DeCamillis

Through 8 games, the Cowboys have held opponents to an average starting position of 26.1 per drive, ranked 4th in the NFL, and only marginally behind the league leading Steelers at 25.7. Our special teams are a big part of this, Raf recently analyzed our kicking/punting game in depth and I've been all over our kickers in these posts, so I'll leave it at that.

Unfortunately our own starting position per drive is 27.7, ranked 24th in the league. Duh. Chicago leads the league at halftime with 34.0. That 6.3 yard difference almost translates into one less 1st down required per drive. More work to do there, Coach Joe D.

Also, our +-0 Turnover Ratio is not helping us achieve a better field position. -3 on Turnovers against GB doesn't help either.

B. Drive Efficiency

	"	No matter where the other team gets the ball, you have to stop them. "
		— Wade Philips

"You have to be able to get first downs to keep the football ", Tony Dungy once said. On Offense, the Cowboys are looking pretty sharp and marching up and down the field seemingly at will. Not only are they moving the ball at a league leading 6.4 yards per play, their 71.4% Drive Success Rate (measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown) is ranked a respectable No. 7 in the league, and their percentage of 3-and-out drives is a league low 13%. Now if only we could improve our 3rd down conversion rate (41.6%, ranked 14th), there would be no stopping us.

3rd down conversion rate vs. Packers: 25% (3/12).

Wade Phillips was overheard summarizing his new job description as DC: "No matter where the other team gets the ball, you have to stop them ". Statistically speaking, Wade has not being doing a bang-up job so far. The Cowboys are allowing 5.3 yards per play (No. 18) and are allowing a 67.2% Drive Success Rate (No. 19). On the brighter side, our 25% 3-and-out percentage is ranked 11th, and Wade's miserly 34.7% 3rd down conversions allowed is ranked fifth in the league.

Packers 3rd down conversion rate: 47% (7/15).

C. Scoring Efficiency

	"	I just think our efficiency down there hasn't been as good as we need it to be. [...] We haven't executed as well as we need to, and there have been some opportunities we haven't taken advantage of. We've just got to tighten it up. "
		— Jason Garrett

On offense, we're racking up the yards like few other teams, but are we doing it efficiently? 40% of our drives end with a score, that's good enough for 6th place in the NFL. But we have to work hard to get a score: With 14.9 yards required for every point scored we're ranked only 16th in the NFL. And once in the Red Zone, we're finding it hard to score a TD. Only 50% of our Red Zone possessions resulted in a TD, only good enough for 18th in the NFL.

RZ Efficiency vs. Packers: 33% (1/3). Yards required per point vs. Packers: 39.7. Yup, tighten it up Jason.

As much as we have to work on offense to score, on defense we're making our opponents work even harder. Only 29% of our oppenents drives end in a score (Ranked 11th), and they have to move the ball 17.7 yards for every point scored (Tank you, D. Buehler, M. McBriar and Special Teams). "Bend but don't break" is a good description of our Defense - unless our opponent makes it into the Red Zone! 58.8% of opponent Red Zone posessions result in a TD, bad enough for No. 25 in the League. Teams below us: Jaguars (59%), Chargers (59%), Texans (67%), Packers (70%), Bears (74%) and the once mighty and proud Giants (76%).

Packers RZ Efficiency: 100% (2/2)

Dallas Cowboys Team Efficiency Summary week 9, 2009

		Offense			Defense
	Stat	Value	Rank	Best	Value	Rank	Best
Field Position	LOS/Drive	27.7	23	CHI (34.0)	26.1	4	PIT (25.7)
	Punt Returns	14.0	2	CLE (16.4)	6.8	10	JAC (3.4)
	Starting Pos. after KO's	21.9	22	TB (30.0)	20.4	4	TB (19.0)
	Turnovers allowed/made	11	9	KC & NE (7)	11	23	NO (24)
Drive Efficiency	Yds/Play	6.5	1	- -	5.3	18	NYJ (4.5)
	Drive Success Rate	71.4%	7	IND (76.1)	67.2%	19	ARI (61.8)
	3rd down conv.	41.6%	14	IND (51.0)	34.7%	5	(NYG (31.1)
	3-and-outs	13%	1	- -	25%	11	HOU (35)
Scoring Efficiency	Scoring Drives	40%	6	NE (46.6)	29%	11	NYJ (21.3)
	Yards per point	14.9	15	NO (11.3)	17.7	6	IND (22.5)
	RZ TD Efficiency	50.0%	18	CIN (69.2)	58.8%	25	WAS (33.3)

***

Amy Reese, a very welcome distraction.

via dougorama.net

4. Quick, off the top of your head, how many false start penalties does Flo have?

8? 10? More? The chances are pretty good that you're wrong. This handy little site has the penalties listed for each player. Since this may have been the last game this season that our OL has lined up with all 5 original starters, here's a look at how our O-Line starters look in terms of penalties and (credited) sacks allowed:

Cowboy O-Line starters, Sacks allowed and penalties through week 10, 2009

Player	Sacks allowed	False Start Penalties	Holding Penalties	Other Penalties
Columbo (RT)	1	4	1	0
Davis (RG)	3	1	1	0
Gurode (C)	0	0	1	2: tripping, ineligible downfield passer
Kosier (LG)	1	1	1	0
Adams (LT)	4	5	1	2: unnecessary roughness, tripping

5. Strange Sightings reported beyond the Line Of Scrimmage

This just in: Opposing players are scared to go beyond the LOS because of what they say is lurking there. They claim strange encounters in the last 9 games have taken place with a previously unseen, pony-tailed creature, and report at least 15 physical confrontations. Irritated fans reported seeing a creature with a similar hairdo on national television recently. Time to bring in the stat police.

Sightings of blond, pony-tailed players during defensive snaps

	Total 2008	wk 1 TB	wk 2 NYG	wk 3 CAR	wk 4 DEN	wk 5 KC	wk 7 ATL	wk 8 SEA	wk 9 PHI
Defensive Snaps	25	24	24	17	16	31	26	24	28
% of total	2.4%	32%	36%	31%	26%	36%	38%	37%	44%

Looks like the coaching staff have finally found a role for Bobby, and if the coaches trust him, I guess I'll do the same.

6. Is there something wrong with the water supply along the I-95?

Interstate 95 is the main highway on the East Coast, paralleling the Atlantic Ocean from Maine to Florida. 8 NFL teams have their homes along the I-95, the Patriots, Giants, Jets, Eagles, Ravens, Redskins, Jaguars and Dolphins. Through week 4, these teams combined for an impressive .645 winning percentage (20-11). Since week 5 these same teams have a combined winning percentage of .415 (17-24). The only team with a winning record in both periods are the Patriots (3-1, 3-2), and they probably get their water supply from Canada. Somebody better call Jack Bauer.

7. No more Energizer Man

If you're like me when watching a football game, your eyes are always glued to where the action is. I seldom take notice of players who are not directly involved in the action. In 2008 one player was on the field for 1,037 of 1,046 defensive snaps, highest among all defensive players. Through the Philly game, that same player had missed a grand total of one (1!) snap out of the 545 defensive snaps this season. Unfortunately, his batteries ran out with an injury in the Packers game. Seldom seen but always there: Ken Hamlin.

NFL Officiating

2009-11-16T08:17:49Z

I'm not complaining much about the officiating today -- it all comes out in the wash, most of the time. Today, GB beat us good with a good amount of help from ourselves and the injury bug.

What I want to share is this: http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2009/09/timespicayune_analysis_of_last.html

It's pretty fascinating, and the search engine of their data is pretty enlightening too.

I suggest taking the time to read it and comment here, if you want.

Chill Pills Dispensed Here

2009-11-16T05:56:32Z

Okay, brace yourselves, because I am going to chastise some of you. In my opinion, it is well deserved.

Looking at the titles of the posts coming off of the win against the Eagles, it is typical of many Dallas fans to come scurrying out of the woodwork after a big win to write posts about the future being so bright that they have to wear shades.

Here’s a sampling;

A good problem to have: no major draft needs

Playoff Chances: Week 9

Rogers does not survive this game...

We've only begun to fight, and we've got secret weapons

And if you believe the whole Tony Romo is such and such in November, the ‘Miles Austin has arrived’ and all the other garbage that surrounded last week’s win, then you don’t know the Dallas cowboys like I know the Dallas Cowboys. Having watched them now for 4 decades, I spend a lot of time thinking about the mental toughness and sacrifice needed to be a champion at anything and how you can almost see the grit and determination in the teams that won Super Bowls, the Companies that were successful in a competitive marketplace and the individuals who accomplished more than their social station would lead you to believe. It is palpable.

Look, I’m not going to make too much of this loss. Dallas was emotionally flat coming off of that game at the Linc last week. But it does confuse me when many of the same people who write and post on BTB (after a win like that) start raving about how we’ll be 9-2 and rolling into the playoffs and how this team is different only to see them then turn around and bitch and whine like wet cats when Dallas does what it has characteristically done in the Winnie era (and really, in the post-Jimmy era).

Teams and organizations emulate their leaders and Dallas still lacks the very businesslike approach to the game of football that is required to make it to the top. Dallas lacks that kind of leader in its head coach and in its GM. Teams that win consistently have a will and determination to never be comfortable, to never drink their own bath water or believe their own press clippings. In fact, they should never believe what gets posted by many fans on here who would have them believe they are better than they are or that they have turned a proverbial corner. Dallas cannot be viewed as one of those teams until they BECOME one of those teams.

This game will either be a wake up call for Dallas or the beginning of a difficult slide through a tough back end of the schedule. Before everyone swings to the other side of the pendulum and says the end is near, let’s all just calm down. Whatever you do, don’t overplay this loss and by the same token, try to refrain from giving out any Lombardi’s or MVP’s until we see more of the season play out.

GO COWBOYS!

Sit Roy Williams down for the next game.

2009-11-16T03:53:56Z

Not the entire game, but don't let him start. We need to send the message to the entire team that each individual play matters. We may lose as a team, but we won't tolerate poor execution. It's not fair to Roy to single him out, but expectations are higher for him because of the opportunity cost associated with aquiring him. If Hurd fumbles and makes a key drop, it's just as awful, but in no way as infuriating.

Roy wants the playing time, then he needs to perform.