Update: Bill Parcells announced this afternoon that LB Kevin Burnett tore an ACL and will be placed on injured reserve. This makes the 4-2-5 a lot more likely against the Rams, as Burnett's loss puts Dallas down to five linebackers, with no reserves at the OLB spots.

Mike Martz is gone from the sideline. QB Marc Bulger is on injured reserve. Marshall Faulk may suit up for the final time in his storied career Sunday. The Rams are starting two rookies on their offensive line, one at left guard and the other at right tackle. They've given up 44 sacks, 6th worst in the NFL and only one fewer than the Cowboys maligned line. Their defense is so much worse than their offense. So why should they concern us?

Because they can still throw the ball. St. Louis is tied with the Colts for the third-best passing average in the NFL at just over 259 yards a game. After playing three QBs and losing its pass-mad coach, the former Greatest Show on Turf has shown it can still operate on collective muscle memory. That and a receiving quartet of Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Kevin Curtis and Shaun McDonald.

They present real matchup problems for the Cowboys, who have seen the injury bug bite the secondary. Corner Anthony Henry returns, but there's no telling how healthy he will be. Terence Newman, Aaron Glenn and Jacques Reeves have played well in his absence, but now Dallas has a hobbled Roy Williams to worry about.

I don't expect a lot of blitzing this week. Steven Jackson sports a 4.1 yards-per-carry average, but the Rams rushing game has slumped this past month. The Rams like to play wide open football, so bringing five and six men would give them the one-on-one secondary duels they crave.

Look for heavy use of the 4-2-5 formation, to keep four rushers on the field. The Cowboys are also thin at linebacker, so a more conservative, conventional attack seems likely. The front four alone will have to pressure QB Jamie Martin. Look for Demarcus Ware, Chris Canty, LaRoi Glover and Greg Ellis to get lots of work as a unit. The matchups to watch will be Canty and Glover against rookie left guard Claude Terrell and Ellis versus rookie right tackle Alex Barron, the Rams top selection last April.

When Dallas has the ball, we should see more of the 2005 standard game plan, because this week it looks like the Cowboys' best option. Expect a lot of the Julius and Marion show. The Rams are next to last in rush defense, allowing only seven inches less per game than last place Buffalo, so hammering the ball with both backs makes sense.

The Cowboys line comes off its best run blocking effort of the season. Forget the J.J. vs. MB III debate for a moment; if the Cowboys run effectively again and qualify for the playoffs, we're facing a full-blown right guard controversy -- Andre Gurode or Marco Rivera? Rivera was signed to take Gurode's place but Gurode showed more explosion last week than Rivera has all year, helping his mates open large and regular holes for Julius Jones.

If Jones and Barber open strongly, play action will look equally as inviting, as the Rams also rank 22nd in pass defense. Injuries have wiped out their secondary, forcing them to play a lot of rookies. The lack of continuity has affected the team's tackling so much that Vitt ripped his players publicly. Even the St. Louis press has gotten into the act, advising GM Charlie Armey to draft the "best tackler available" next spring.

When Dallas does throw, it will have to locate and neutralize DE Leonard Little. The undersized but turbocharged edge rusher leads the Rams with seven sacks. No other teammate has more than three. St. Louis, like all Cowboys foes, will likely try to get Little lined up across from RT Rob Petitti. Expect a lot of two TE sets, with Dan Campbell aiding Petitti, whether he faces Little or not.

Prediction:

Ball control. Long, methodical drives. Keep your backs happy and keep the Rams offense off the field. The Rams have let a lot of no-name backs rip them for big games this year. Last week, it was San Francisco's Maurice Hicks, who gained 109 yards in only 10 carries. The Cowboys offer better talent and more experience across the skill position board. They should be able to move the ball and if they can prevent sacks and subsequent turnovers, the Cowboys should score.

Mike Martz was always fearless against pressure and interim coach Joe Vitt has maintained Martz' philosophy. The Rams love to spread the field with three and four receiver sets. Dallas' line will get chances against minimal protection schemes.

For this reason, I see Dallas getting turnovers. The Cowboys are a middling -1 for the season. St. Louis is second to last with a -14 margin. Mostly, I see one team with a lot to play for versus another with an eye on next year. The Rams have won five games this year. Four were against Houston, New Orleans, Tennessee and Arizona. Their only quality win came against Jacksonville. They've won just once since Halloween, that a last-second comeback against the Texans.

St. Louis has the worst scoring defense in the league. The Cowboys don't deserve post-season consideration if they can't tally big points against them.

Dallas 28, St. Louis 17

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Cowboys 24, Panthers 20

Final

Terry Glenn catches 2 yard TD pass with 0:24 in the game.

Julius Jones, 194 yards rushing, 2 TDs;
Demarcus Ware, 3 sacks, 3 fumbles caused, 9 tackles.

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Panthers 13, Cowboys 10
Half,

Billy Cundiff misses 32 yd. field goal with 0:04 in 2nd Qtr.

Julius Jones scores on 7 yd TD run.
Billy Cundiff 24 yd field goal.

Jones -- 76 yards rushing

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The Panthers worst loss this year came against the Bears. In that game Chicago provided the blueprint for a Dallas win Saturday. It allowed Steve Smith to go crazy, as he caught 14 passes for 169 yards. But they kept him from the highlight play. He had no receptions behind the defense; he did not catch a quick hitch and then race 60 yards for a score. Chicago let him have 10 and 12 yards hooks and outs and then tackled him.

The Bears smothered everything else. No other Carolina receiver had more than 20 yards. DeShaun Foster was limited to 41 yards on the ground. Jake Delhomme was sacked eight times. When he got frustrated, he threw two crippling interceptions.

On the offensive side of the ball, Chicago ran stubbornly, if not effectively. Thomas Jones averaged 3.5 yards per carry, a familiar number to Dallas fans. But Chicago gave it to him 25 times, helping them win the time of possession battle. Kyle Orton threw for only 136 yards, but made only one mistake, beating Delhomme in picks 2 to 1.

What Chicago exposed, more than anything else, is that the '05 Panthers, in many ways, resemble the '05 Cowboys. Their offensive tackles have trouble protecting against strong rushers. Their much ballyhooed power running game has sputtered all year, with neither Stephen Davis nor Deshaun Foster averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry. Their passing game is Steve Smith and nothing else: he's got over 1,400 yards receiving and is more than 800 yards ahead of Carolina's second rated receiver.

John Fox has won games the way that Bill Parcells was winning them in the middle of the season. Lean on your defense, run the ball relentlessly, even if the opponent is stopping you much of the time. Take some well-chosen shots at Smith. Win the turnover and time of possession battles and grind out close, 20 to 14 or 20 to 17 wins.

Dallas can win this game. Terence Newman, with a little help, can contain Smith in the same way Chicago did. He can stop 40 to 60 yard breakouts. The long pass to Eddie Kennison was the only touchdown caught behind him this year and that was the safety's fault.

The bigger question is the front seven. Why have they regressed so much of late? They've suffered no major injuries, in the way the secondary has. Dat Nguyen's loss has been felt, but it has been weeks since he was healthy.

This game will turn on their pride and on d-line coach Kacey Rogers' rotation. Dallas needs Scott Fujita, Demarcus Ware and Kevin Burnett to play with abandon against the run. Rogers also needs to see that Greg Ellis is on the field as much as possible on passing downs. His reps have declined recently, especially on passing downs, but he's been the spark for the pass rush when he's been in.

If Dallas can put Carolina in second and third and long sitations and get Ellis, Chris Canty, Ware and LaRoi Glover on the field in those situations, they can pressure Delhomme. Watch first down carefully. The Panthers like to hammer it on first down too. If Foster can be held to two to three yard gains, this game will be available. If he starts ripping off seven, eight and nine yard gains on toss plays, we're looking at another long afternoon.

Dallas will have to win those run-down matchups because the offense won't have the luxury of a Kansas City-style game plan. The Panthers defense is much closer to the Redskins in philosophy and performance, which means Dallas will need to protect Drew Bledsoe as much as possible. Carolina's ends are the best Dallas has faced since the Giants game, and we know what Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan did. In fact, we know what lesser ends like Philip Daniels can do if Dallas leaves its tackles in solo protection schemes. If Torrin Tucker and Rob Petitti are left alone against Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker, this game will be over by halftime.

Look for Dallas to slam the ball inside, no matter how erratic and ugly the results might be. The line does rip open holes from time to time. And Carolina lacks some ballast in the middle, since DT Kris Benson was lost early in the season to a leg injury.

If Bledsoe can get some time, he can make some throws downfield. The Panthers weakness is its secondary, especially right corner Chris Gamble. Dallas will have matchup advantages and should get receivers open. The bigger question is whether Bledsoe will have to time to locate them.

If the game plan goes to form the kickers will play a much more important role this week, especially Mat McBriar. His weak punts contributed to Dallas last first half collapse, giving the Redskins very short fields. Dallas needs him to return to form, since field position will be criticial if Dallas hopes to win.

Prediction:
A win over Carolina is possible. As banged up as they are, Dallas nevertheless has the talent on the field to win the game. The bigger question is whether a win is probable? In order for the plan to work, the OLBs, the secondary, McBriar, the offensive line and Bledsoe will all have to work at a high level.

I can see, in fact I expect to see, the team rebound from last week's humiliation. I expect to see desperation and heart. The kids have been in 13 of their 14 games, something I didn't expect and I imagine few others expected at the beginning of the year. However, I also expect to see mistakes. All the units I named have been error prone and somewhere along the line, I think more penalties or turnovers will pop up to plague them.

I hate writing this, but I see another hard-fought game that comes up short.

Carolina 17, Dallas 13

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Because there are some important games this afternoon.

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The rivalry that is again revs up Sunday when Dallas visits Fed Ex Field to play the Redskins. Playoff slots are on the line as both teams seek to keep pace with a large and compact NFC field.

When the Redksins Have the Ball
They're a tough bunch to figure out. When you scan Washington's results this season, the only consistent factor is their offensive inconsistency. They were shut out in Giants Stadium and held to less than 100 total yards. Yet two games later they put 35 points on the board against a tough Tampa Bay D.

Mostly, they've stuggled of late, topping the 20 point mark only twice in the last six games. Gibbs' game plans are conservative. He likes running Clinton Portis hard at opponents to set up play action passing. Washington has mobile guards in Derrick Dockery and Randy Thomas, so expect them to run sweeps and their famed counter OT at both Cowboys OLBs, especially rookie Demarcus Ware, who appears to be wearing out late in his rookie campaign.

Mike Zimmer had a lot of success blitzing Washington QB Mark Brunell in September, getting him five times. Roy Williams spent most of the day in the Redskins backfield on safety blitzes. Washington had its bye the week following the Cowboys win and spent a lot of time working on protection. Gibbs now gives Brunell much more seven man pockets and on semi rollouts to escape blitz pressure. Brunell is not the mad scrambler of years past, but he still has good speed and can run for first downs if you don't account for him.

I expect Zimmer to be more sparing with his pressure. He won't give it up completely, since the Dallas front four has had some difficulty getting a four man push lately, but I think Zimmer will pick his spots, since I expect Washington to be much better prepared for his blitz packages. One matchup that favors Dallas when it plays 4-2-5 will be rookie DT/DE Chris Canty on LG Dockery. Dockery is Washington's best run blocker but has trouble with skilled inside rushers. Canty has stepped ahead of fellow rookie Ware and Marcus Spears and has taken a lot of reps from Greg Ellis lately.

When Washington passes it has two primary options. The shorter weapon is H-back Chris Cooley, who Gibbs throws to on first down deep outs and on bootlegs. The deeper weapon, as all Cowboys fans know, is Santana Moss. The former Jet has blossomed in Gibbs offense, making his first formal announcement against the Cowboys, catching two long TD passes in the last five minutes of September's game.

Gibbs succeeded in matching Moss against nickel WR Aaron Glenn. Dallas' coverage was stictly by side then, with Glenn on the left, Anthony Henry on the right and Terence Newman in the slot. Gibbs used a three receiver set with slot receivers left and Moss as the flanker right. This put Moss alone against Glenn with Roy Williams over the top. On Sunday, don't be surprised if the Cowboys do a lot more matchup with Newman following Moss everywhere. Newman has been Dallas' most steady corner all year. He's also the fastest and healthiest CB.

When Dallas has the Ball
Will the Cowboys again be aggressive, or won't they be aggressive? I guess that depends on what you mean by aggressive. To some being aggressive means throwing the ball deep down field, to stretch a secondary's coverage. By this definition, Dallas has been aggressive all year. They have not shied away from the deep attempts to Terry Glenn in any game this year.

Another definition refers to the amount of numerical pressure you apply to a defense. In this regard, the Cowboys have been conservative at times and aggressive at others. Last week, when Bill Parcells mentioned he was opening up the defense, he meant the team would call a lot more plays that sent five receivers out on routes. In the weeks since Flozell Adams was lost with a knee injury, the Cowboys had cut back dramatically on four and five receiver plays, keeping a tight end and a back in to help backup Torrin Tucker and rookie RT Rob Petitti.

Parcells may have been playing a cat and mouse game with Redskins DC Gregg Williams when he mentioned the team will back off its pressure. Parcells as snookered in week two by Williams, who spent most of the week talking up his pressure schemes. Parcells and OC Sean Payton expected a lot of blitzing and installed a game plan with lots of max protect schemes and some deeper throws. They were stymied when Washington feigned blitz, stacking the line before the snap, and backed off, clogging the Cowboys passing lanes.

Parcells and Payton will have to guess what type of schemes they will face the second time around. If they assume Williams will back off, we'll see a game plan similar to the Kansas City one, with more first down passes to the tight end and fullback and lots of delayed routes to the tight ends and backs. If Williams goes back to his aggressive tendencies running five man routes is a recipe for a lot of sacks.

Williams has a dilemma of his own. His starting corners and his nickel corner have all missed practice this week rehabbing injuries. Rookie Carlos Rogers has a bicep injury, which should not limit his play. However, CBs Walt Harris and Shawn Springs are nursing leg injuries. What will Williams do to protect them? Will he back off and play softer schemes? It's possible, but it's not his style. Or will he bring even more heat, trying to get to Drew Bledsoe before Bledsoe can pick on his guys?

My guess is that we'll see a bend but don't break scheme between the 20s, with Williams picking his times for heavy blitzing.

Dallas will, of course, continue its quest for a power running attack. The line has run hot and cold, mostly cold, but nonetheless keeps plugging away. Maintaining a heavy ratio of running attempts will be key to giving Bledsoe time.

Prediction:
Get ready for another close one. It's been the Cowboys receipe all year. What's more, it's been Washington's recipe as well. They're flawed, but they're a good team, and they'll keep your hand moving to the Tums dish all afternoon.

I think in the end the game will turn on Dallas' ability to stay close. The Cowboys have had a terrible time closing out games, but so has Washington, especially at home. I predict this their trend to take precedence.

Dallas 21, Washington 20

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Whew! Some quick items:

-- fifth time is the charm. It took four successful screens by the Chiefs, but Dallas was ready for the last one;

-- what a difference a lead makes. The pass rush went up one notch in intensity after the flea-flicker to Glenn and one more after the Witten TD.

And Dallas gets the second half kickoff.

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