Dallas-Minnesota History

by kindablue on Oct 20, 2007 1:43 PM CDT Comment 7 comments

This has been a season of firsts for the Cowboys. Three weeks ago, they beat the Rams at home for the first time since 1981 (they had lost four straight there, including three games when they were favored). Two weeks ago, Dallas won in Buffalo for only the second time ever, and the first time since 1971. Last week, Dallas lost at home to New England for the first time ever. We also started out 5-0 for the first time since 1983.

This week we have yet another odd situation. Can anyone remember the last time Dallas won a regular season game against the Vikings at Texas Stadium? That's right, we've never beaten Minnesota at home in the regular season, since we've moved from the Cotton Bowl in 1971. We did win two playoff games against them there, in 1977 and 1996, and twice in the Cotton Bowl (1961 and 1966). But in the regular season at Texas Stadium, we're 0-6, with losses coming in 1974, 1978, 1987, 1988, 1998 and 2000.

Let's hope the pattern of ground-breaking results continues one more week, and we can finally win there, before Texas Stadium is demolished.

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Nicely put

Always a positive perspective! The sense of fate that hangs over most sports fans needs to be challenged to be broken. What happened in the past has nothing to do with the present. That is why if you flip a coin 100 times and get 75 heads the next flip's odds are still 50% heads 50% tails. I admit that I worried about the Saint Louis one though because of our recent beatdown here by a mediocre team.

by lee3022 on Oct 20, 2007 6:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I couldn't disagree more...

If you don't think that psychology plays a role in sports, you're nuts. Granted, games from 20 years ago are not much of a factor. But when it comes to recent history, if one team has dominated, that DEFINITELY factors into the mindset of both teams going into a contest. Coins have no subconscious.

As for the Vikings post, I like the stats. Well done. Older guys remember the hail mary, but if you look at that play in slow-motion, you'll see it hits off the defenders foot! Drew Pearson and Staubach were not only great, they were also lucky. That game was one of SEVERAL playoff battles between the two teams in the 70s. Tarkenton and Staubach dueling it out year after year. If it wasn't the Skins, it was the Vikings, and if we got by both of them, the Steelers...

Cowboys and Tar Heels

by DalaiLuke on Oct 20, 2007 11:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a Subject I've Thought About

For a long time, and I'm not sure what the answer is. If a team has shown they have consistently been able to outplay their expected level of performance, then I think there's more going on than the coin flipping phenomena that lee3022 mentions. One could do a statistics t-test to determine the odds of whether it was a random occurence or if there was something unusual at play. I haven't done those tests, but I have seen some teams consistently and repeatedly outplay their expected performance--the Cowboys on the road in Washington is a good example. Our victories there in 1988, 1989 and 1991 were major upsets, and the loss in 1990 was much closer than anyone expected.

It sounds like you're convinced that phenomena exists. Just looking at certain matchups over the years, it leads me to think it exists, too, I just haven't had the time to crunch the stats tests to be as confident as you. I'm not sure how much psychology plays in all this either, that's one of the great unknowns. I tend to think the psychology aspect is overplayed, but then again, that's just my opinion.

Maybe when I retire, I can look into things like this.

And I would be the last person to accuse lee3022 of being nuts. I find all his posts insightful. I try to avoid implying someone crazy, just because they don't agree with me. :-)

Drew Pearson admitted later he pushed off on Nate Wright for the Hail Mary pass. We were definitely lucky to win that one!

by kindablue on Oct 21, 2007 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never thought of Miles...

as the voice of reason, but points well taken.

Okay, Lee... you're not nuts, you're just, IMnotsoHO, not right.

If anyone gets a chance to TIVO that hail mary catch... go slo-mo and tell me that ball doesn't stay in play off Nate Wright's foot.

Cowboys and Tar Heels

by DalaiLuke on Oct 21, 2007 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's a Couple of Different Angles

of the Hail Mary catch on youtube, but the quality is so poor you can't tell. I'll try to remember to check for the foot-ricochet the next time I watch it.

by kindablue on Oct 21, 2007 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The interesting thing

to me is to study the entire database for patterns. The anomalies get publicized (especially Stupid ESPN Stats) but the others do not. Against all games over the past 10 years how many streaks of underdog vs favorite are there and how many stayed true to form? I don't ever look at betting sites but they may have that information available if you have access.

What the streaks do is add interest where otherwise fans tune out a game. So they are publicized to hype more than to inform.

by lee3022 on Oct 21, 2007 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs