Scouting report: Cowboys vs. Packers (part II)

by Dave Halprin (Grizz) on Nov 27, 2007 5:45 PM CST in News Comment 11 comments

Here’s the second part of the Scouting Report from the Packers/Lions game.

Packers defense vs. Cowboys offense

The first thing you have to do to run against the Packers is get DT Ryan Pickett blocked. The guy is an anchor at the line but he has enough footwork to pursue the ball carrier and push into the backfield. He’ll be lined up across from Leonard Davis, with some help from Andre Gurode, and should be a great battle to watch all night. If those two can get some movement on Pickett, the middle will become soft for the Cowboys run game. On the other hand, the Lions were able to run against DT Corey Williams and backup Colin Cole when they were in the game. Cole is now on IR, so a rookie, Justin Harrell will have to help. If the Cowboys see Pickett not in the game at any time, they should think about attacking the middle. The Lions got a lot of their success by running at the right-side of the Packers defense, away from Pickett. If the Cowboys plan to go after that same area then Flozell Adams and Kyle Kosier will be important players in the run game. Running to the edges and getting outside wasn’t an easy thing to do against the Packers linebackers, although the Cowboys need to try every so often to keep the linebackers and prevent them from collapsing into the middle. The Packers are an aggressive pursuit team against the run so cutback runs or misdirection could burn them. The Lions were actually pretty successful running the ball in the game and if they could have provided protection in the pass game or caught all the passes that came their way the game could have gone differently.

Al Harris almost shutout WR Roy Williams on Thanksgiving. They will probably try the same thing with Terrell Owens, so I would expect to see T.O. lined up in a lot of different areas in this game. The Cowboys will probably move him around before the snap to see if they can get a better matchup. That might be hard though because the Packers run a lot of man-to-man coverage so Harris will probably follow Owens wherever he goes. The big question is the health of Charles Woodson, whether he will play and how effective he will be in the game. The Lions were able to take advantage of the other CB’s the Packers trotted out though they weren’t bad, they just couldn’t lock down the receivers like Woodson. If Woodson tries to play, expect Dallas to find out pretty quickly how effective he’ll be on the day. But the place where you really want to go after the Packers in the passing game is between the hashmarks. The Lions found success there like many teams have this year. Detroit doesn’t really use a TE much, but a TE like Jason Witten should have a good day in the middle of the field. The Packers starting free safety may or may not play and his backup is unlikely to play. If they are having injury problems up the middle, Dallas will attack that all night long. Also, slipping the backs out of the backfield and down the seam could be very effective.

The Packers are not a blitzing team, at least they weren’t against the Lions. They basically rushed four guys the whole game and on occasion rushed three. The problem for the Lions is they couldn’t even get that blocked. I don’t think Dallas will have problems blocking four guys most of the time with the way our pass protection has been all year. Marc Colombo will have to line up against Aaron Kampman who is a beast with a motor that doesn’t stop. On the other side, the status of KGB is unknown and he usually came in on passing situations to rush from the other end. If KGB can’t go, Dallas will slide protection and help to Colombo. If KGB does play, they will have to see if Flozell can shut him down one-on-one before deciding protections. Regardless, I think the Cowboys line will eventually force the Packers to start blitzing to get pressure on Romo. At that point, Romo tends to excel if giving just a little time.

Summary

Running through the middle of the Packers defense requires that you block Ryan Pickett. Leonard Davis will be the key here. It’s hard to run outside on the Packers because of good linebackers that flow to the ball. But if you decide to run, run at the right-side of the Packers defense.

Use the TE and other receivers down the middle of the field in the passing game. The Packers were already soft against the pass in the middle of the field and with injuries may even be more vulnerable. See if you can shake Terrell Owens free of Al Harris by moving him around the field. If you want to pass, consider chipping or double-teaming Aaron Kampman, the guy can cause havoc in the backfield. Use the backs as receivers, too.

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Witten should have a monster game

Like Grizz said, they are weak up the middle and I anticipate Romo and Witten to play catch all day on seam and in routes.

I look for JJ and MB3 to have good games as well.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Nov 27, 2007 6:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

thanks!

I really appreciate reading your scouting reports and having a better idea what to look for in the game, it makes it all that much more interesting and enjoyable.

I found out that the other Cowboys fan I know out here in Hana has NFL Network, so I'm happy to have a place to watch the game. (Not sure how much I'll be able to join in the live-blogging this time, though.)

Try Card Bowl: Football with Playing Cards at cardbowl.org

by scottmaui on Nov 27, 2007 7:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

heh

I just noticed the NFC East brackets haven't been updated with the other three team's current standings.

If we win the Super Bowl, then we owe Parcells a Gatorade shower.

by Nelson on Nov 27, 2007 8:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, updated

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by Dave Halprin (Grizz) on Nov 27, 2007 8:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

great analysis Grizz

Being from WI, I've watched all the Green Bay games with great interest this year. I have a few opinions that are a bit different than most analysis out there. So here goes, and sorry for the long-winded post. I need to get this off my chest because nobody up here wants to hear it.

Everyone seems to be almost taking for granted that Al Harris is going to neutralize or greatly diminish TO. I have a lot of respect for Harris, but I believe that TO will cause Al Harris all kinds of problems. TO's combo of brute strength and speed is just the ticket to beat him. Harris is good against pure speed guys because he can disrupt them at the line of scrimmage very effectively. He can also cover the bigger, physical receivers because those guys he can (almost) run with. But TO will use is excellent strength to counter Harris' physical play at the line of scrimmage and then quite easily run away from him. Given the awesome chemistry between Romo and TO, I expect TO to have a huge night if the Pack leaves Harris on an island against him.

Much of the MSM is really trashing the Cowboy safeties. I have done the same at times on this very blog. Well, I’ll take Dallas’ safeties over Green Bay’s every week of the season. Dallas should have a field day going against those guys. I keep hearing about how Green Bay is going to go four wide to get their receivers on our safeties. Boy, I hope Dallas’ game plan includes four wide to have Romo chew up the Green Bay secondary. Not only are their safeties inferior to ours, their third corner is nowhere near the quality of Reeves. And if Woodson doesn’t play or isn’t near 100%, Crayton could have a field day as well.

The interior of Green Bay’s offensive line is weak. They have had problems with their guards and, to a lesser extent, their center all season. I expect Dallas to be able to shut their running game down without too much trouble, and we should be able to get a consistent pass rush up the middle as well. This may sound hard to believe, but Brett Favre isn’t a deity and he will throw multiple interceptions if pressured and the Pack is behind.

I worry about Dallas’ coverage teams on kickoffs and punts. That has caused problems before this year and Green Bay is too good to give up field position or easy points.

Obvious, but still worth stating: Romo can’t have multiple interception game.

Just a gut feeling here: Fasano might be in for a big night.

People still underestimate Tony Romo. The most frequent reason I hear why Green Bay will win is because Brett Favre is better than Tony Romo. Check the stats. Watch the games. Romo’s play this season has at least equaled Favre’s. I’ve come full circle from the beginning of this season. I believe in Tony Romo.

by Cowboy Louie on Nov 27, 2007 8:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

man

This game's gonna be friggin HUGE!

Hopefully I can find a bar with a big screen that has the NFL Network (I could watch it online, but I'd rather not).

If we win the Super Bowl, then we owe Parcells a Gatorade shower.

by Nelson on Nov 27, 2007 10:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

There's not a DT in the league...

That I would take against the Andre Gurode/Bigg Davis tag team. That's almost 700 pounds of domination.

They handled Tommie Harris. They handled Kevin Wilfork. They handled the Twin Towers in Minnesota, and they'll handle Pickett.

I like Green Bay a lot, but I think that Dallas has a talent advantage almost across the board. Maybe not a huge one, but enough.

Great analysis, Grizz. And a great blog.

BTW: Did anyone else see that Roosevelt Colvin was just put on Injured Reserve? That's a big blow to the Pats defense. They're already a little creaky at LB, and if they have to move Thomas from ILB to OLB, then they've gotten even softer in the middle.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=090...

I'd hire Jason Garrett. He is the only guy I have ever met who, no matter what business I was involved in, I'd hire. -Troy Aikman

by Big D Bam Bam on Nov 28, 2007 8:23 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

At the end of the day

this game will come down to Romo v Favre, who plays better because both teams are fairly equal in all other respects now that Ryan Grant has rejuvinated their earlier pitiful rushing attack.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Nov 28, 2007 10:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

NFL.com preview

I just watched the preview on NFL.com and they don't even mention Ware or Ellis. Travesty. I doubt the pack will forget about them.

by bluewolf021 on Nov 28, 2007 10:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think

Its going to come down to green bay not being able to stop our running game.Witten will still have a big game,and when they bring an extra man up to stop the run...thats when we hit our big plays!

You'll never get in a traffic jam,while going the extra mile. -Roger staubach

by TrueBlue24 on Nov 28, 2007 12:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs