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2011 NFL Draft Order Still Largely Up For Grabs

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Santa did not come through on all Cowboys wishes, but may still make up for it with a high draft spot.
Santa did not come through on all Cowboys wishes, but may still make up for it with a high draft spot.

Week 16 is almost in the books and one of the 32 draft spots has already been decided:

The Carolina Panthers have locked up the No. 1 spot in the 2011 draft thanks to the Bengals and Broncos moving up to 4-11 with wins yesterday. If Stanford QB Andrew Luck declares for the draft, all mystery will be gone from that No. 1 spot, and we can all concentrate on the spots below that.

As it stands today, the Cowboys have the number seven pick in the draft by virtue of their last second loss to the Cardinals, but that draft spot remains as fluid as ever.

With a loss against the Eagles, the Cowboys could conceivably move into the #4 spot if the Bengals and Bills win their last games (the Cowboys cannot overtake the Panthers, Broncos and the loser from the Cardinals @ 49ers game).

A win against the Eagles, and a couple of other improbable but not inconceivable game results could still see the Cowboys drop all the way to the 13th spot. For many other teams, the draft spots also remain very fluid heading into the final regular season games. After the break, a full overview of the draft spots as they stand after the Sunday games.

[Note: updated with results through Tuesday, December 28th]

Draft order through Tuesday, December 28th, 2010

# Team Record Opp. W/L
1 Carolina Panthers 2-13 .575
2 Denver Broncos 4-11 .508
3 Cincinnati Bengals 4-11 .579
4 Buffalo Bills 4-11 .583
5 Arizona Cardinals 5-10 .458
6 San Francisco 49ers 5-10 .492
7 Dallas Cowboys 5-10 .521
8 Houston Texans 5-10 .525
9 Detroit Lions 5-10 .550
10 Cleveland Browns 5-10 .575
11 Seattle Seahawks 6-9 .488
12 Tennessee Titans 6-9 .504
13 Washington Redskins 6-9 .513
14 Minnesota Vikings 6-9 .542
15 New England Patriots (from OAK) 7-8 .471
16 Miami Dolphins 7-8 .538
17 Jacksonville Jaguars 8-7 .450
18 San Diego Chargers 8-7 .458
19 New York Giants 9-6 .454
20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-6 .479
21 *St. Louis Rams 7-8 .442
22 *Indianapolis Colts 9-6 .475
23 *Green Bay Packers 9-6 .521
24 *Kansas City Chiefs 10-5 .408
25 *Philadelphia Eagles 10-5 .483
26 *New York Jets 10-5 .496
27 *New Orleans Saints 11-4 .463
28 *Chicago Bears 11-4 .467
29 *Baltimore Ravens 11-4 .488
30 *Pittsburgh Steelers 11-4 .504
31 *Atlanta Falcons 12-3 .488
32 *New England Patriots 13-2 .504
* Indicates likely playoff teams

Reminder: These are the rules for determining the draft order for the 2011 draft:

  1. Teams that make the playoffs receive the last 12 draft picks from position 21-32, ordered by which round of the playoffs they were eliminated.
  2. Teams that didn't make the playoffs are ordered by their regular season W/L record.
  3. The tiebreaker for teams with identical records is the Strength of Schedule or Opponent W/L record. For the draft order, the lower SOS results in an earlier pick.
  4. If the SOS does not resolve a tie, a division or conference tiebreaker is used. If that fails as well, draft order is determined by a coin toss during the combine.