FanPost

Predictions: Put up or shut up

Here’s your chance to prove your chops as a football analyst. Claiming that Sergio Kindle is going to be awesome doesn’t get you props. Kindle is projected to be a first round pick and is supposed to be awesome. You get props for identifying a player that’s getting drafted too low or too high. Have fun. Here are my predictions and rationale (and yes I've cherry picked the best bets). I’ve thrown in a couple non-draft predictions for kicks.

Derrick Morgan, Everson Griffen, Sergio Kindle, Carlos Dunlap, and Jason Pierre-Paul will all be drafted too high. Jason Pierre-Paul will be a bust.

Why: SackSEER

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2010/introducing-sackseer

Nate Forster (published by Football Outsiders) developed a model for projecting the performance of edge rushers. The variables are (i) vertical jump (ii) short shuttle time (iii) adjusted sack rate, and (iv) games missed. All the players above are projected to go in the 1st round. Their key variables and projected sack totals for 5 years are summarized in the table below.

Player

Vertical

Short Shut.

Sack Rate

Games Missed

5 Yr Sack Forecast

Derrick Morgan

34

4.43

0.59

1

23

Everson Griffen

34

4.36

0.52

3

23

Sergio Kindle

36.5

4.53

0.48

7

19

Carlos Dunlap

31.5

4.61

0.62

2

16

JPP

30.5

4.67

0.44

26

4

None projects higher than 5 sacks / year and 5 sacks / year would be a disappointing 1st round pick. Hence, they're getting drafted too high.

p.s. SackSEER likes Washington DE Daniel Te’0’Nesheim and South Carolina LB Eric Norwood

Ben Tate will be drafted too low.

Why: Tate produced the best speed score this year for a RB. I calculated the speed scores during the combine and was going to write about it. However, the speed score inventor beat me to the punch and wrote an article for ESPN

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft10/insider/news/story?id=4956769

The difference between a 40-yard dash time of 4.37 seconds and 4.43 seconds is 60 milliseconds -- just about half the time it takes the human eye to blink. To most people, it's imperceptible. So why should people care about the difference between the respective 40 times of projected first-round pick C.J. Spiller and midround prospect Ben Tate? Because of a historically effective metric suggesting that Tate might end up the better pro back….

Speed scores been computed for every draft since 1999, and it's done a better job of predicting NFL success on a per-carry and cumulative basis than any other player statistic heading into the pros, including the raw 40-yard dash time. Approximately 20 percent of a player's performance as a pro can be explained by what happens in less than five seconds, months before he ever steps on a pro field…

With all that in mind, we return to Spiller and Tate. Although there were only 60 milliseconds of difference between their respective 40 times, Spiller weighed in at 197 pounds when he was measured in Indy; Tate, on the other hand, was at 220. Accounting for that difference, speed score pegs Spiller at 107.5, while Tate is at a combine-best 114.2 …

Furthermore, Tate is exactly the sort of player that game film is likely to misrepresent. As part of the annual Auburn change in offensive scheme, Tate lost his job in 2008 when the team moved to a spread offense. Since he's a north-south runner without great raw speed, that makes sense, but when the team moved back to a more conventional style in 2009, Tate ran for nearly 1,400 yards in one of the country's toughest conferences. Playing in the spread improved his receiving abilities to the point that they're a plus, too.

(Other players with good speed scores: Ryan Matthews and Toby Gerhardt)

Colt McCoy will be drafted too low.

Why: The Lewin Career Forecast. The Lewis Career Forecast projects the performance of college QBs in the NFL. It turns out 2 variables matter: Completion % and Games Started. Guess what, McCoy aces both. Started 53 games with a 70% Completion %. Although McCoy projects to be a pro-bowl QB in the NFL, he’s expected to last into the 2nd round.

The Jets will improve by acquiring talent … not character

Why: Santanio Holmes is one of the top 15 most efficient WR in the NFL as measured by Expected Points Added / Attempt (0.37). The Jets currently have 2 relatively inefficient WRs in Cotchery (0.20) and Edwards (0.06). By taking targets to inefficient WRs and replacing them with targets to a significantly more efficient WR, the Jet’s will improve their offense.

In addition, the Jet’s had one of the largest differences between their actual record (9-7) and their expected record (11-5) based on their points scored / points allowed. Simply from mean reversion the starting point for projecting the Jet’s record next year is 11-5, so I’ve got the wind at my back for this prediction. Throw in the infusion of talent, and 2010 looks very promising for the Jets (and yes, I’m pulling a slight of hand claiming the Jets are improving because of ‘talent’ when I know that in reality they’ve got 2 game in the bank due to mean reversion).

Tony Romo will throw more than 9 interceptions in 2010

Why: Mean Reversion. The statistics on Romo’s interceptions the last 4 years:

Average: 13.75

Standard Deviation: 4

The statistics suggest that 68% of Romo’s seasons will produce between 10-18 picks, with the 9 picks in 2009 being slightly more than 1 standard deviation. Hence, I expect Romo to experience mean reversion in 2010 and if Romo throws 18 picks next year I would consider that to be normal season.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.