Can we just erase all of the early games from last Sunday... at least the ATS results?
Let's work backwards. I correctly predicted every late afternoon and Sunday night games, a great run that included taking the points with the Falcons over Detroit and the Chiefs over the Raiders. I also took two double-digit covers in the Cowboys and Saints; something I always approach with trepidation. If the Ravens didn't yack it up in Jacksonville, it would have been a perfect ending to a beautiful weekend of parlays.
Except for those early games. Sheesh, was that ugly. Due to inexcusable, horrid turnover-filled fourth quarters by Josh Freeman and Phillip Rivers, as well as getting Tebowed, my picks in the 1pm slot were an embarrassing 0-5-1. The one saving grace is I finally got untracked in picking the over/unders. Here's a look at the results from last week.
| KD's Picks |
MoneyLine | ATS | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 | 5-8 | 6-6-1 | 9-4 |
| Season Total | 55-37 | 48-46-5 | 39-51-1 |
Follow the jump for the Week 8 prediction matrix, along with a few notes on the Cowboys-Eagles preview.
Background
Andy Reid took over as the coach of the Eagles in 1999. Back then, bye weeks were assigned all the way up until Week 16 and the Eagles received one of those quirky schedules. They would defeat a St. Louis team resting their starters and would follow that up with another 11 post-bye victories. If you include playoff bye weeks, the record jumps up to 15-0. Impressive, but why don't I think this is relevant?
Fast forward to the summer of 2011. The NFL and the NFLPA are locked in(out) a heated cage match over the next collective bargaining agreement. Once the issues were resolved, the new CBA contained certain parameters that lessened the amount of time teams could require players to practice. Amongst those, was the provision that bye weeks would now include a mandatory four consecutive days off for the players.
This wrinkle has had an interesting effect on teams for 2011. Through the first 20 years of bye weeks, NFL teams were 352-313-1 heading into this season. Through two weeks of byes, teams are an abysmal 3-9 in '11. Bye-week teams are 4-7-1 against the spread so far this year. Home teams are 1-3 straight up. Losing teams before the bye? 2-4 straight up.
Checking The Trends
60% of the betting public is taking the Cowboys straight up. 73% are taking Dallas to cover and 64% are taking the over.
The Cowboys are 3-2 ATS, Eagles 2-4. Cowboys are 2-0 ATS on the road, Eagles are 0-2 ATS at home. Cowboys are 2-0 ATS as away underdog, Eagles are 0-2 ATS as home favorite. See where I'm going with this one?
Prediction Matrix
| MATCHUP | Kickoff | Underdog | Line | Favorite | O/U | S/U | ATS | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indy @ Tennessee | 1p | Colts | 8.5 | TITANS | 43.5 | Titans | Colts | under | |
| Jacksonville @ Houston | 1p | Jaguars | 9.5 | TEXANS | 40.5 | Texans | Jaguars | under | |
| Minnesota @ Carolina | 1p | Vikings | 3.5 | PANTHERS | 46.5 | Panthers | Panthers | over | |
| New Orleans @ St. Louis | 1p | RAMS | 13.5 | Saints | 48 | Saints | Saints | Over | |
| Arizona @ Baltimore | 1p | Cardinals | 12.5 | RAVENS | 43 | Ravens | Cardinals | Under | |
| Miami @ NY Giants | 1p | Dolphins | 9.5 | GIANTS | 42.5 | Giants | Dolphins | Over | |
| Washington @ Buffalo | 405p | Redskins | 6 | BILLS | 45.5 | Bills | Bills | Over | |
| Detroit @ Denver | 405p | BRONCOS | 3 | Lions | 41.5 | Broncos | Broncos | Over | |
| New England @ Pittsburgh | 415p | STEELERS | 1.5 | Patriots | 52.5 | Steelers | Steelers | Under | |
| Cleveland @ San Francisco | 415p | Browns | 8.5 | 49ERS | 38.5 | 49ers | Browns | Over | |
| Cincinnati @ Seattle | 415p | SEAHAWKS | 3 | Bengals | 37.5 | Bengals | Bengals | Under | |
| Dallas @ Philadelphia | 830p | Cowboys | 3.5 | EAGLES | 50 | Cowboys | Cowboys | Over | |
| San Diego @ Kansas City | M835p | CHIEFS | 4 | Chargers | 44 | Chiefs | Chiefs | Under |