Yesterday we used 25 different mock drafts to predict how the top ten draft picks of the 2011 draft could play out. We hypothesized that the predictive value of multiple mock drafts is greater than that of a single mock.
Rabblerousr proposed nine different trade down options for the Cowboys a few weeks ago, all in the 11-20 pick range. If the Cowboys are looking to trade down, that would be the most likely range of picks they may be looking at. So today we're focusing on what the swarm intelligence of 25 mock drafts predicts will happen between pick 11 and pick 20.
Like yesterday, the "Consensus Pick" is the player selected most often at a given spot in the 25 mock drafts we looked at. In cases where the player with the most selections has already been picked, we go with the second most often selected player.An interesting dynamic emerges as we move into the double-digit picks of the first round: many mocks have a certain team taking players that are already gone in the consensus mock of the 25 mocks. I've added a column to the table below called "missed picks" which is the sum of players mocked to a team that are gone already. Example: six mocks have Tyron Smith falling to the Lions, and four mocks have Amukamara being picked by the Lions. However, in the sum of the 25 mocks, Smith went to the Cowboys at number nine, and the Texans took Amukamara at number 11. The Lions therefore have 10 'missed picks'. These missed picks could be a potential proxy for the likelihood of a team to trade up.
| Pick | Team | Consensus Pick | Frequency | Missed picks |
|
11 |
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska |
8 (32%) |
1 | |
|
12 |
Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina |
5 (20%) |
9 | |
|
13 |
Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College |
9 (36%) |
11 | |
|
14 |
Saint Louis Rams |
Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri |
5 (20%) |
11 |
|
15 |
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama |
14 (56%) |
1 | |
|
16 |
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue |
12 (48%) |
8 | |
|
17 |
Cameron Jordan, DE, California |
7 (28%) |
8 | |
|
18 |
J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin |
5 (20%) |
11 | |
|
19 |
Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida |
10 (40%) |
8 | |
|
20 |
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa |
6 (24%) |
12 |
Couple of observations: six of these ten picks are defensive ends. With six teams potentially jockeying for position to get the one DE they want, expect a lot of trades as teams try to get into the right position to get their DE.
Two teams appear to have a serious interest in offensive linemen: 18 mocks have the Lions taking a lineman (9 x Castonzo, 6 x Smith, 3 x Solder) and the Giants are also projected to take a lineman 18 times (10 x Pouncey, 6 x Castonzo, 1 x Solder, 1 x Wisniewski). If the Cowboys move down to below the Lions, the Lions are very likely to take a lineman off the board in the hope of somehow protecting Stafford's glass shoulder. The Giants at #19 are the next team with serious designs on a lineman, and trading down too close to them may risk the Giants trading up to grab their player.
The Rams are mocked Julio Jones eight times. If that is indeed a reflection of what the Rams will do, then the Rams may have to move up ahead of Washington to make sure they get their receiver.
Similarly, the Chargers are in desperate need of a DE/OLB, with 22 of 25 mocks giving them a DE/OLB. Given their multiple second and third round picks, the Chargers might be willing and able to move up fairly high to get the DE they covet.
The wild cards in the middle of the first are the Vikings and Patriots. The mocks are all over the place for these two teams and there's no consensus about players or positions these two teams may be going for. Both could be candidates for trading down, the Vikings in order to get more picks this year, the Patriots could once again be looking for picks next year.
Here's how the middle of the first round plays out according to the 25 mock drafts (only players with min. 2 picks):
| Player | #11 HOU | #12 MIN | #13 DET | #14 STL | #15 MIA | #16 JAC | #17 NE | #18 SD | #19 NYG | #20 TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amukamara | 8 | - - | 4 | - - | 1 | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| Quinn | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| Castonzo | 0 | 2 | 9 | - - | 1 | - - | 1 | - - | 6 | - - |
| A. Smith | 4 | - - | 1 | 5 | - - | 8 | 1 | - - | - - | 4 |
| Ingram | - - | - - | - - | - - | 14 | - - | 2 | 1 | 1 | - - |
| Kerrigan | 2 | - - | - - | - - | - - | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Jordan | 1 | 4 | - - | 1 | - - | 1 | 7 | 8 | - - | 2 |
| Watt | 2 | 2 | - - | - - | 2 | - - | 5 | 5 | - - | 1 |
| Pouncey | - - | - - | - - | - - | 2 | - - | 2 | - - | 10 | 1 |
| Clayborn | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | 2 | 1 | 1 | - - | 6 |
| Jones* | 1 | 2 | - - | 8 | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| T. Smith* | - - | - - | 6 | - - | - - | - - | 2 | 1 | - - | - - |
| Liuget | - - | - - | - - | 4 | - - | - - | - - | - - | 4 | - - |
| Wilkerson | - - | - - | - - | 2 | - - | - - | - - | 5 | 1 | - - |
| Houston | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | 1 | - - | 1 | - - | 4 |
| Solder | - - | - - | 3 | - - | - - | - - | 1 | - - | 1 | - - |
| Mallett | - - | 1 | - - | 1 | 3 | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| Bowers* | - - | 5 | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| Locker | - - | 2 | - - | - - | 1 | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| Taylor | 1 | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | 1 | - - | - - |
| Newton* | - - | 2 | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| * denotes player taken in top ten | ||||||||||
These are the 25 mock drafts that contributed to the "swarm intelligence": Nolan Nawrocki (Pro Football Weekly, 3/25), Wes Bunting (Nat'l Football Post, 3/30), Dan Shonka (Ourlads, 3/26), Scott Wright (Draft Countdown, 3/21), Mel Kiper (ESPN, 3/9), Todd McShay (ESPN, 3/16), Drafttek (3/30), Walter Football (3/29), Russ Lande (Sporting News, 3/22), Draft Season (4/1), Great Blue North Draft Report (3/14), Mocking The Draft (3/31), Draft Ace (3/28), Don Banks (SI.com, 3/30), Chad Reuter (NFL Draft Scout/CBS, 3/28), Rob Rang (NFL Draft Scout/CBS, 3/28), Pat Kirwan (NFL.com, 3/28), Pete Prisco (CBSSports, 3/29), Clark Judge (CBSSports, 3/29), Steve Wyche (NFL.com, 3/29), Brian Galliford (SB Nation, 3/28), Evan Silva (Rotoworld, 3/28), Al Fronzak (East Coast SportsNews, 3/29), Doug Farrar (Shutdown Corner, 3/28), MyNFLDraft.com (3/31).