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Week Two NFL Odds: Scoreboards On Steroids

Speaking of picks...
Speaking of picks...

Often times, week 1 results can't be trusted, as far as evaluating a team's worth. Coaches have months to prepare for that first opponent, to script game plans and target weaknesses. This particular off season, because of the lockout, coaches were sitting back with more idle time than any offensive mastermind should have because they couldn't interact with their own players. Defensive coaches, who by nature have to be more reactionary than proactive, would seem to be at a disadvantage.

After the Packers and Saints, two Top Ten defensive DVOA teams last season, exploded for 76 points on Thursday night, I opined that early in the NFL season, we could see potent offenses outplaying their defensive counterparts. This would be a trend that would be quite unusual compared to recent years. As such, I adjusted my predictions quite a bit from from earlier in the week.

Here's a look at Week One, average points scored total, over the last four years. 2008: 39.9 - 2009: 40.6 - 2010: 36.6.

2011? 47.0.

On Tuesday of last week, I submitted my pick'em choices to O.C.C. and they were horrible, 7 out of 16 winners. By the time the weekend rolled around, I had adjusted some predictions and was able to go 8 for 10 picking straight up winners in the 10 for 10 contest; missing Dallas (who had it won) and Cleveland (who were winning until injuring QB Andy Dalton and the backup saved the day).

As far as not trusting Week One results, I think 2011 will be a bit of aberration there as well. Sure, Pittsburgh and San Francisco probably won't reproduce such results (not showing up, two special teams TDs, respectively), but I think several teams previewed what they are this year. I expect Kansas City, Detroit, Jacksonville, Tampa and the NY Giants to all have seasons like what we saw in Week One.

Follow the jump to see how my predictions from last week went, as well as this weeks, spreads, over unders and new prognostications.

Last week's NFL Odds thread

Well, I got the Oakland-Denver game right, down to a tee. I predicted the Oakland road upset, and a score of 23-20. Unfortunately that was about the only thing from that post that was above average.

Straight Up: 3-2

Over/Under: 2-3

ATS (Against the Spread) 6-6, 2 pushes, 2 closed lines


Week 2 NFL Odds and picks. Make sure to check out the 10 For 10 thread comments on Sunday morning. There are still a couple days left to ingest information, and my picks on Saturday night may be more accurate for straight up bettors.

Lines according to as of 1230pm

MATCHUP Underdog Line Favorite O/U   S/U ATS O/U Score
Chicago @ New Orleans Chicago -7 @New Orleans 48   New Orleans Chicago Over 28-24
Kansas City @ Detroit KC -8.5 @Detroit 45.5   Detroit Detroit Over 30-17
Jacksonville @ NY Jets Jacksonville -9 @NY Jets 39   Jets Jets Under 24-10
Oakland @ Buffalo Oakland -3.5 @Buffalo 43.5   Oakland Oakland Over 24-21
Arizona @ Washington Arizona -4 @ Washington 45   Washington Washington Over 28-21
Baltimore @ Tennessee @Tennessee -6.5 Baltimore 38   Baltimore Baltimore Push 24-14
Seattle @ Pittsburgh Seattle -14.5 @Pittsburgh 40.5   Pittsburgh Seattle Over 30-17
Green Bay @ Carolina @Carolina -10 Green Bay 47   Green Bay Green Bay Under 31-13
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota Tampa -3 @Minny 42   Tampa Bay Tampa Under 24-14
Cleveland @ Indianapolis @Indy -3 Cleveland 40   Indy Indianpolis Over 24-20
Dallas @ San Francisco San Fran -3 Dallas 42.5   Dallas Dallas Over 28-21
Houston @ Miami @Miami 3 Houston 48   Miami Miami Under 28-26
San Diego @ New England San Diego 7 @New England 54.5   San Diego San Diego Under 27-24
Cincinnati @ Denver Cincy 3.5 @Denver 40   Cincy Cincy Over 21-17
Philadelphia @ Atlanta @Atlanta 3 Philly 50   Atlanta Atlanta Under 24-21
St. Louis @ NY Giants Rams No Line Giants ---   Giants -- --- ---

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