Week Three was a big bounce back week for my predictions, Outright and ATS. I picked nine underdogs to cover, and went 7-1-1 in those games. I also advised to stay away from the Chargers-Chiefs 14 point spread, and sure enough, the Chiefs kept it a one score game. Underdogs had a huge week Against The Spread, covering in 11 of the 16 games. This week, I'm picking 9 dogs to cover the points as well.
Here are my season totals so far for 2011. My radar on Over/Under is still on the fritz, but credibility has been reestablished and I'll try to keep the upward trend going for Week 4.
|Week 3 total||10-6||9-5-1||7-8-1|
Follow the jump for all of the NFL lines, as well as predictions on all 16 contests.
My Featured Five from last week were pretty much in line with the rest of my picks, as they went 3-2 against the Money Line (ML), 2-2-1 Against the Spread (ATS) and 2-2 on the Over/Under (O/U)
As always, I don't claim to have inside info, or any of the numerous formulas that the myriad of handicappers do. I just try and apply my knowledge of NFL football and team trending to apply it to future results. I'm sure there are some algorithm folks out there that cringe at this, but it is what it is.
Switching it up this week because, well, I can. I'm giving my Top 2 Full Reports, Three Locks, plus the Featured Five.
(All lines from Las Vegas Hilton via VegasInsider.com as of 2PM ET)
Detroit @ Dallas (-1.5, O/U 46) Las Vegas Hilton, Sunday 1pm
Dallas has played 9 consecutive games with final 3 pts or less (5-4 S/U, ). Dallas won 5 of last 6 vs Detroit SU. Dallas is 1-4-1 ATS in last 6. Over is 9-1 in last 10 DAL home games. Over is 4-1 in last 5 DET games. Total combined scoring avg:47 ppg.
S/U: Cowboys ATS: Lions O/U: Over FINAL: Cowboys 24-23
Pittsburgh @ Houston (-2, O/U 45), Sunday 1pm
Over is 6-1 for PIT, 8-4 for HOU, 4-1 for Steelers on road, 4-2 Texans at home. PIT is 9-3 SU in last 12 road games. Houston is 5-10 ATS in last 15. Total combined scoring avg:43 ppg.Pittsburgh is -24 cumulative ATS in 2011. Houston is +22.5 cumulative ATS in '11. Pittsburgh is-7.5 cumulative O/U, Houston is +8, in 2011.
S/U: Steelers ATS: Steelers O/U: Over FINAL: Steelers 24.1 -21
Plus Three Locks
Saints (-7), KC/MIN Over, BAL/NYJ Over
Week 4 Picks, Featured Five Intriguing Lines Highlighted
|Detroit @ DALLAS||1p||Lions||1.5||COWBOYS||46||COWBOYS||Lions||Over||24-23||Ribs|
|New Orleans @ Jacksonville||1p||JAGS||7||Saints||45||Saints||Saints||Over||34-13||Brees|
|San Fran @ Philly||1p||49ers||9||EAGLES||43.5||EAGLES||EAGLES||Under||24-13||Cynical society anti-Eagle mojo|
|Washington @ St Louis||1p||Redskins||2||RAMS||43.5||RAMS||RAMS||Under||24-19||Beck in Wk 5|
|Tennessee @ Cleveland||1p||Titans||1.5||BROWNS||38.5||Titans||Titans||Over||21-20||better w/o Washburn|
|Buffalo @ Cincy||1p||BENGALS||3||Bills||43.5||Bills||Bills||Over||28-20||Chan Gailey?|
|Minny @ KC||1p||CHIEFS||2||Vikings||39.5||Vikings||Vikings||Over||27-21||Gus Johnson|
|Carolina @ Chicago||1p||Panthers||6||BEARS||42||BEARS||BEARS||Under||24-17||Closer than score|
|Pittsburgh @ Houston||1p||Steelers||2||TEXANS||45||Steelers||Steelers||Over||24.1 - 21|| .1 for the Over
|Atlanta @ Seattle||405p||SEAHAWKS||4.5||Falcons||38.5||SEAHAWKS||SEAHAWKS||Under||17-14||Don’t trust on road|
|NY Giants @ Arizona||405p||CARDINALS||1||Giants||44.5||CARDINALS||CARDINALS||Over||27-24||No Tuck|
|Miami @ San Diego||415p||Dolphins||7||CHARGERS||44.5||CHARGERS||CHARGERS||Over||34-24||Vincent Jackson|
|Denver @ Green Bay||415p||Broncos||12.5||PACKERS||46||PACKERS||Broncos||Under||23-14||overvalued|
|New England @ Oakland||415p||RAIDERS||4||Patriots||55||RAIDERS||RAIDERS||Over||31-28||No Chung|
|NY Jets @ Baltimore||830p||Jets||3.5||RAVENS||42||RAVENS||Jets||Over||24-20||SNF=Over|
|Indy @ Tampa Bay||M835p||Colts||10.5||BUCS||40.5||BUCS||Colts (s/a)||Under||20-10||Painter?|
And don't forget about my '10 For 10' Pick'Em Contest, go here to enter.