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NFL Week Four Odds (ATS, ML, O/U) And Predictions

Can Dan Bailey's leg bring the Cowboys their third straight late-game win?
Can Dan Bailey's leg bring the Cowboys their third straight late-game win?

Week Three was a big bounce back week for my predictions, Outright and ATS. I picked nine underdogs to cover, and went 7-1-1 in those games. I also advised to stay away from the Chargers-Chiefs 14 point spread, and sure enough, the Chiefs kept it a one score game. Underdogs had a huge week Against The Spread, covering in 11 of the 16 games. This week, I'm picking 9 dogs to cover the points as well.

Here are my season totals so far for 2011. My radar on Over/Under is still on the fritz, but credibility has been reestablished and I'll try to keep the upward trend going for Week 4.

2011 Season S/U ATS O/U
Week 3 total 10-6 9-5-1 7-8-1
TOTAL 23-14 21-19-4 16-19-1

Follow the jump for all of the NFL lines, as well as predictions on all 16 contests.

My Featured Five from last week were pretty much in line with the rest of my picks, as they went 3-2 against the Money Line (ML), 2-2-1 Against the Spread (ATS) and 2-2 on the Over/Under (O/U)

As always, I don't claim to have inside info, or any of the numerous formulas that the myriad of handicappers do. I just try and apply my knowledge of NFL football and team trending to apply it to future results. I'm sure there are some algorithm folks out there that cringe at this, but it is what it is.

Switching it up this week because, well, I can. I'm giving my Top 2 Full Reports, Three Locks, plus the Featured Five.

(All lines from Las Vegas Hilton via as of 2PM ET)

Top Two

Detroit @ Dallas (-1.5, O/U 46) Las Vegas Hilton, Sunday 1pm

Dallas has played 9 consecutive games with final 3 pts or less (5-4 S/U, ). Dallas won 5 of last 6 vs Detroit SU. Dallas is 1-4-1 ATS in last 6. Over is 9-1 in last 10 DAL home games. Over is 4-1 in last 5 DET games. Total combined scoring avg:47 ppg.

S/U: Cowboys ATS: Lions O/U: Over FINAL: Cowboys 24-23

Pittsburgh @ Houston (-2, O/U 45), Sunday 1pm

Over is 6-1 for PIT, 8-4 for HOU, 4-1 for Steelers on road, 4-2 Texans at home. PIT is 9-3 SU in last 12 road games. Houston is 5-10 ATS in last 15. Total combined scoring avg:43 ppg.Pittsburgh is -24 cumulative ATS in 2011. Houston is +22.5 cumulative ATS in '11. Pittsburgh is-7.5 cumulative O/U, Houston is +8, in 2011. 

S/U: Steelers ATS: Steelers O/U: Over FINAL: Steelers 24.1 -21


Plus Three Locks

Saints (-7), KC/MIN Over, BAL/NYJ Over


Week 4 Picks, Featured Five Intriguing Lines Highlighted

MATCHUP Kickoff Underdog Line Favorite O/U   S/U ATS O/U Score Casual Fact
Detroit @ DALLAS 1p Lions 1.5 COWBOYS 46   COWBOYS Lions Over 24-23 Ribs
New Orleans @ Jacksonville 1p JAGS 7 Saints 45   Saints Saints Over 34-13 Brees
San Fran @ Philly 1p 49ers 9 EAGLES 43.5   EAGLES EAGLES Under 24-13 Cynical society anti-Eagle mojo
Washington @ St Louis 1p Redskins 2 RAMS 43.5   RAMS RAMS Under 24-19 Beck in Wk 5
Tennessee @ Cleveland 1p Titans 1.5 BROWNS 38.5   Titans Titans Over 21-20 better w/o Washburn
Buffalo @ Cincy 1p BENGALS 3 Bills 43.5   Bills Bills Over 28-20 Chan Gailey?
Minny @ KC 1p CHIEFS 2 Vikings 39.5   Vikings Vikings Over 27-21 Gus Johnson
Carolina @ Chicago 1p Panthers 6 BEARS 42   BEARS BEARS Under 24-17 Closer than score
Pittsburgh @ Houston 1p Steelers 2 TEXANS 45   Steelers Steelers Over 24.1 - 21  .1 for the Over
Atlanta @ Seattle 405p SEAHAWKS 4.5 Falcons 38.5   SEAHAWKS SEAHAWKS Under 17-14 Don’t trust on road
NY Giants @ Arizona 405p CARDINALS 1 Giants 44.5   CARDINALS CARDINALS Over 27-24 No Tuck
Miami @ San Diego 415p Dolphins 7 CHARGERS 44.5   CHARGERS CHARGERS Over 34-24 Vincent Jackson
Denver @ Green Bay 415p Broncos 12.5 PACKERS 46   PACKERS Broncos Under 23-14 overvalued
New England @ Oakland 415p RAIDERS 4 Patriots 55   RAIDERS RAIDERS Over 31-28 No Chung
NY Jets @ Baltimore 830p Jets 3.5 RAVENS 42   RAVENS Jets Over 24-20 SNF=Over
Indy @ Tampa Bay M835p Colts 10.5 BUCS 40.5   BUCS Colts (s/a) Under 20-10 Painter?

And don't forget about my '10 For 10' Pick'Em Contest, go here to enter.

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