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BTB's Super Bowl Predictions And Prop Bets

Mercifully. Finally.
Mercifully. Finally.

We are finally getting our blindfolds and final cigarettes for the 2011 NFL season Cowboys fans. Rejoice!

I figured it would be fun for us to get one last round of Pick'Em embarrassment for the road, so I coerced some of my fellow FPW's to take a stab at picking a winner for Super Bowl XLVI, the New York Giants vs. the New England Patriots. This has to be one of the worst matchups for Dallas fans, right? I can only think of a couple that would be worse; San Francisco vs. Pittsburgh, Washington vs. Pittsburgh, Philly vs. Pittsburgh... you catch my drift.

Here's the "Vegas" breakdown for the contest.

New York Giants vs New England Patriots (-3) O/U: 54.0

Both teams fared well straight up away from home. The Giants compiled a 7-3 record and the Pats a 6-2 record on the road. NYG maintained that record against the spread (ATS), but NE dropped to 5-3. On the road, against teams with winning records at the time of the game, NYG went 4-2 S/U, ATS and O/U (W: @NE, @DAL, @GB, @SF L: @SF, @NO). NE went 3-2 S/U, ATS and O/U against winning road teams (W: @OAK, @NYJ, @DEN L: @BUF, @PIT).

Follow the jump to see how Dave, O.C.C., Tom and myself see the game shaking out.

KD: Patriots 24 Giants 20

I think Brady's tired of the BS 'Giants are in his head' and comes out, lighting up the Giants weak secondary, specifically Antrel Rolle. The interception Eli threw that went through Asante's hands four years ago, actually gets picked by Kyle Arrington this time around, as the Giants try to rally late but fall short on the turnover. Manning face for everyone!

O.C.C. Patriots 30 Giants 23

1. Tom Brady
2. The Patriots have the better offensive line
3. The Giants had a +7 turnover ratio for the season, they are +5 in the playoffs (one turnover and six takeaways). That luck will not last.

Tom: Giants 24 Patriots 13

Not because they are such a superior team. Just my expectation that one team usually comes out flat or tight and things tend to get out of hand, and this is my guess on it. It could easily go the other way, but I do expect a double digit margin this year. Just like I said, I think one of the teams will not have that great a game.

Dave: Patriots 31 Giants 24

Tom Brady needs to get his revenge, and with the help of good pass protection and a short passing game, he'll get it. This offensive strategy neutralizes the Giants biggest strength, their pass rush. On defense the Pats do not let Eli Manning roll out to his right, limiting the damage from Nicks and Cruz. It will be a competitive game with Brady being the difference-maker.


Here's a look's's prop bets I found interesting.

Prop Bet Favorite Top Odds Interesting Long Shot
MVP Tom Brady(7/5) Manning (9/4) Cruz (8/1) Nicks (12/1) Jake Ballard (100/1)
1st TD Gronkowski (6/1) Hernandez (7/1) BGE (15/2) Cruz (15/2) DJ Ware (50/1)
Gatorade Shower Color Clear/Water (3/2) Orange (5/2) Yellow (5/2) Blue (10/1)
Manning TDs 2 (+225) 3 (+250) 1 (+275) 0 (+600)
Brady TDs 4+ (+230) 2 (+250) 3 (+250) 0 (+750)
1st Giants TD Nicks (7/2) Cruz (7/2) Bradshaw (9/2) Jacobs (6/1) Bear Pascoe (22/1)
1st Pats TD Gronkowski (3/1) Hernandez (4/1) Welker (4/1) Edelman (20/1)
1st Interception Arrington (13/2) McCourty (15/2) Ross (10/1) Boley (18/1)
MVP 1st thanked Teammates(5/4) No one (5/2) God (4/1) Coach (12/1)


Over/Under Prop Benchmark
Dow Jones Day After 0
Online Viewers 1.5 million
Robert Kraft Sightings 3.5
Excessive Celebration Penalties 0.5
Peyton Manning sightings 3.5
Kelly Clarkson's anthem will take 1 min 24 sec
Manning Passing Yards 315.5
Manning Longest Completion 45.5
Bradshaw Rush Attempts 13.5
Bradshaw Yds 1st Carry 3.5
Nicks Longest Catch 26.5
Cruz Longest Catch 29.5
Tynes Total Points 7.5
JPP Tackles & Assists 5.5
JPP sacks 0.5
Brady Passing Yards 320.5
Brady Longest Completion 42.5
BGE Total Rush Yards 47.5
Woodhead Rush Attempts 5.5
Woodhead Catch Yards 12.5
Welker Catch Yards 82.5
Gostkowski Total Points 8.5
Mayo Tackles & Assists 7.5
Mark Anderson Sacks 0.5

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