2013 Super Bowl Odds After One Week Of NFL Free Agency

Every so often, we like to look at the Super Bowl odds for all 32 NFL teams here on Blogging The Boys. We do this not because because we think the Cowboys are necessarily an imminent threat to win the Super Bowl, but because Vegas is always an interesting indicator of where public opinion - and money - is concentrating. And after a week of action-filled free agency, we turn our eye to Vegas once again to see which teams moved up or down the list of Super Bowl favorites.

Back in July 2011, we also looked at the 2012 Super Bowl odds after one week of free agency. At the time, the Packers, Patriots and Eagles were pegged as joint favorites to win the Super Bowl with 6/1 odds, and we know now that those odds were way off for at least one of those three teams. Conversely, with odds of 100/1, the Bengals had the second worst odds in the league and did manage to make the playoffs. So take these odds with a pinch of salt.

Per 3/21/2012, bovada.lv has the Packers (13/2), Patriots (15/2) and Saints (10/1) pegged as favorites to win the 2013 Super Bowl. For the Packers, that translates into a 15.4% chance at another ring. The Cowboys have the 11th best odds with 20/1 or a 5% chance. After the break, we look at how the odds have changed after one week of free agency.

2013 Super Bowl Odds

Rank & Team		per Feb. 6, 2012	per Mar. 21, 2012	Change
1	Green Bay	16.7% (6/2)	15.4% (13/2)	-1.3%
2	New England	14.3% (7/1)	13.3% (15/2)	-1.0%
3	New Orleans	12.5% (8/1)	10.0% (10/1)	-2.5%
T4	Houston	8.3% (12/1)	8.3% (12/1)	0.0%
T4	Denver	2.0% (50/1)	8.3% (12/1)	6.3%
6	San Francisco	5.6% (18/1)	7.1% (14/1)	1.6%
T7	Philadelphia	8.3% (12/1)	6.7% (15/1)	-1.7%
T7	Baltimore	7.1% (14/1)	6.7% (15/1)	-0.5%
9	New York Giants	6.7% (15/1)	6.3% (16/1)	-0.4%
10	Pittsburgh	8.3%(12/1)	5.6% (18/1)	-2.8%
11	Dallas	5.6% (18/1)	5.0% (20/1)	-0.6%
12	San Diego	6.3% (16/1)	4.5% (22/1)	-1.7%
T13	Detroit	5.6% (18/1)	4.0% (25/1)	-1.6%
T13	Chicago	3.3% (30/1)	4.0% (25/1)	0.7%
15	Atlanta	4.5% (22/1)	3.6% (28/1)	-1.0%
16	New York Jets	6.3% (16/1)	3.3% (30/1)	-2.9%
T17	Miami	2.9% (35/1)	2.5% (40/1)	-0.4%
T17	Cincinnati	2.5% (40/1)	2.5% (40/1)	0.0%
T17	Carolina	2.0% (50/1)	2.5% (40/1)	0.5%
T17	Seattle	1.7% (60/1)	2.5% (40/1)	0.8%
T21	Arizona	3.3% (30/1)	2.0% (50/1)	-1.3%
T21	Tennessee	2.5% (40/1)	2.0% (50/1)	-0.5%
T21	Kansas City	2.0% (50/1)	2.0% (50/1)	0.0%
T21	Washington	1.7% (60/1)	2.0% (50/1)	0.3%
25	Oakland	2.0% (50/1)	1.7% (60/1)	-0.3%
T26	Buffalo	1.7% (60/1)	1.3% (75/1)	-0.3%
T26	St. Louis	1.3% (75/1)	1.3% (75/1)	0.0%
T26	Tampa Bay	1.3% (75/1)	1.3% (75/1)	0.0%
T29	Indianapolis	2.0% (50/1)	1.0% (100/1)	-1.0%
T29	Minnesota	1.3% (75/1)	1.0% (100/1)	-0.3%
T29	Jacksonville	1.0% (100/1)	1.0% (100/1)	0.0%
32	Cleveland	1.0% (100/1)	0.7% (150/1)	-0.3%

Looking at Vegas odds as a way to assess team strength is always a bit tricky, as the odds are also a reflection of where the money is going, and only partly reflect true team strength. Nevertheless, it's interesting to see how the odds have changed after one week of free agency.

According to the bookmakers, the clear winners in the free agency sweepstakes this year were the Broncos, on the strength of signing Peyton Manning. On the other end of the scale, the Colts take a dive with Manning gone, despite having Andrew Luck locked in as his replacement.

Teams that have been fairly inactive in free agency so far also see their stock dropping. The Saints, Steelers, Jets, Eagles, Chargers and Lions all drop, and it remains to be seen whether DeMeco Ryans joining the Eagles will have any noticeable impact on their odds. Vegas appears to like what the 49ers and Bears have done in free agency and have improved their odds.

Overall though, free agency hasn't had that big an impact on the odds of most teams. While there is lots of movement in the table above, most of this movement is in small increments. What is noteworthy though is that outside of Peyton Manning, the top free agent signings haven't moved the needle all that much for the teams involved:

Buffalo is down despite signing Mario Williams, Tampa Bay doesn't improve its odds despite their haul of big names and even though Detroit re-signed Calvin Johnson, they also see their odds slip. And Vegas isn't that impressed with the Cowboys' flurry of free agency activity either.

Then again, being the early season favorite has not always proven helpful in the postseason. After free agency last year, the Giants were ranked joint 11th with 20/1 odds and still went on to win a ring. We'll see how it goes this year, as the numbers are bound to change after the draft and during preseason anyway.