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Averaging The Mocks 5.0: Mark Barron The Favorite For Dallas Cowboys

According to the universe of mocks, it is very likely we'll be seeing this name on a Cowboys jersey.
According to the universe of mocks, it is very likely we'll be seeing this name on a Cowboys jersey.

Last call, folks. This is my final word on mock drafts, and in just a few hours, the real draft will render this obsolete. But if you need something to pass the time as the clock ticks down, I'll be glad to share some insights from this exercise.

This is the second time I have used 24 different mock drafts to generate my average values. I don't know if having the same number of mocks in each (although not the same exact ones) makes this a more effective technique, but it is certainly more symmetrical. If you want to see the raw chart, you should be able to check it out here. The chart is on Google documents, so I don't know if there are problems for anyone without Gmail. Let me know.

Related: Cowboys Mock Drafts: All Mocks Point To Mark Barron

As probably comes as no surprise whatsoever, my average mock comes to the same conclusion as the past few posts on this subject: Mark Barron is the most likely pick for the Dallas Cowboys. In addition to landing at 14 based on his weighted score in my system, he was the player mocked to Dallas in 14 of the 24 mocks I used. The only other player to be slotted to the Cowboys more than once was Michael Brockers, who showed up on six. Courtney Upshaw, David DeCastro, Dontari Poe, and Dre Kirkpatrick all were shown as Dallas' choice exactly once.

The final chart in this series after the jump, plus a few more things I saw.

One note on selecting the mocks I used: I did find one writer, that I won't name, that seemed to want to do a big board rather than a mock draft, and just didn't want to call it what it was. He flipped Luck and RGIII at the top of his mock, even though he admitted he was aware that the Colts have already announced that they will stick with Luck. I was looking at people's best guesses as to what the teams would really do, not their view of a perfect NFL. So that one did not make the cut.

Here is the final result, with the 4.0 result for comparison.

Selection Draft Order 4.0 Value Draft Order 5.0 Value Change
1 Andrew Luck QB Stanford 480 Andrew Luck QB Stanford 480 -
2 Robert Griffin III QB Baylor 456 Robert Griffin III QB Baylor 456 -
3 Matt Kalil OT USC 430 Matt Kalil OT USC 424 -
4 Trent Richardson RB Alabama 403 Trent Richardson RB Alabama 405 -
5 Morris Claiborne CB LSU 382 Morris Claiborne CB LSU 389 -
6 Justin Blackmon WR Ok. St. 347 Justin Blackmon WR Ok. St. 346 -
7 Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M 303 Fletcher CoxDT Miss. St. 300 +5
8 Melvin IngramOLB SC 279 Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M 296 -1
9 Riley Reiff T Iowa 239 Luke KuechlyILB Boston C. 215 +4
10 Quentin Coples DE NC 209 Michael Floyd WR ND 204 +1
11 Michael Floyd WR ND 207 Melvin Ingram OLB SC 201 -3
12 Fletcher Cox DT Miss. St. 207 Stephon Gilmore CB SC 186 +7
13 Luke Kuechly ILB Boston C. 184 Riley Reiff T Iowa 183 -4
14 David DeCastro G Stanford 142 Mark Barron FS Alabama 176 +2
15 Dontari Poe DT Memphis 138 David DeCastro G Stanford 141 -1
16 Mark Barron FS Alabama 107 Quentin Coples DE NC 129 -6
17 Michael Brockers DT LSU 101 Michael Brockers DT LSU 108 -
18 Courtney Upshaw OLB Ala. 75 Dontari Poe DT Memphis 106 -3
19 Stephon Gilmore CB SC 70 Courtney Upshaw OLB Ala. 58 -1
20 Cordy Glenn G Georgia 56 Cordy Glenn G Georgia 48 -
21 Whitney Mercilus DE/OLB Ill. 50 Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama 42 +1
22 Nick Perry DE USC 47 Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse 41 +10
23 Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama 38 Johnathan Martin T Stanford 32 +1
24 Johnathan Martin T Stanford 34 Whitney Mercilus DE/OLB Ill. 27 -3
25 Mike Adams T Ohio St 16 Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama 18 +5
26 Devon Still DT PSU 10 Nick Perry DE USC 12 -4
27 Andre Branch DE Clemson 6 Kendall Wright WR Baylor 8 +4
28 Peter Konz C Wisconsin 5 Doug Martin RB Boise St 5 New
29 Janoris Jenkins CB N. Ala. 5 Shea McClellin DE Boise St 2 New
30 Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama 5 Stephen Hill WR Ga Tech 1 New
31 Kendall Wright WR Baylor 4 Bruce Irvin DE W. Va. 1 New
32 Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse 3 Peter Konz C Wisconsin 1 New

There was no movement at all in the top six, and I think there will be shock and amazement if this doesn't play out very close to how it shaped up here. Just outside the acknowledged "blue chips", both Fletcher Cox and Luke Kuechly have continued to climb, and both are now seen by most as solid top ten picks. And Ryan Tannehill has solidified in most people's minds as the pick for the Dolphins - but he is still the real wildcard in the first half of the draft.

Getting down to where Dallas is going to be picking, I highlighted the same kind of "sweet spot" that I used on my post on averaging the mock boards - the seven names closest to the fourteenth pick. And this is not a bad list, at least to my eyes.

  • Melvin Ingram has slid just enough on this listing to be possibly in range.
  • Stephon Gilmore continues his rapid ascent. If the consensus on him is accurate, he may need to be on the Cowboys' radar.
  • Riley Reiff has suddenly slid to just above the Dallas pick. There are a couple of things of interest about this. First, he does not seem to have slid as much as been leapfrogged by other names who are the shiny toy du jour. This means he should be a good value here. Dallas would have to think about him on a purely BPA basis if he makes it down another slot. And second, he could keep a certain other offensive linemen, who I will mention later, available.
  • Mark Barron is right there at fourteen, and Archie is doing handsprings of joy.
  • David DeCastro was shown as being taken after Dallas' pick on a lot of mocks. I am not sure that would really happen. My guess is that he may be higher than Barron on the real Dallas board. But that word "guess" should be preceded by "wild-arsed".
  • Quentin Coples slides here. Most opinion here at BTB has been that he doesn't make it that long in the round. If he does, again, the team has to look hard at him.
  • Michael Brockers rounds the "list of the likely" out. Not the most popular name, but one that many could live with.
  • Given that some sources have indicated that Barron, DeCastro and Brockers are the "short list" for Dallas going into the draft, this is just about the ideal situation. As a matter of fact, it would almost be an embarrassment of riches.

Just as kind of a personal footnote, I was also very happy to see Dontari Poe fall outside this range. I know he has his fans, but I would just as soon see the team stay away from him.

Hope you enjoyed reading this. And very shortly, we will find out who really gets picked where. At last.

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