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Last call, folks. This is my final word on mock drafts, and in just a few hours, the real draft will render this obsolete. But if you need something to pass the time as the clock ticks down, I'll be glad to share some insights from this exercise.
This is the second time I have used 24 different mock drafts to generate my average values. I don't know if having the same number of mocks in each (although not the same exact ones) makes this a more effective technique, but it is certainly more symmetrical. If you want to see the raw chart, you should be able to check it out here. The chart is on Google documents, so I don't know if there are problems for anyone without Gmail. Let me know.
As probably comes as no surprise whatsoever, my average mock comes to the same conclusion as the past few posts on this subject: Mark Barron is the most likely pick for the Dallas Cowboys. In addition to landing at 14 based on his weighted score in my system, he was the player mocked to Dallas in 14 of the 24 mocks I used. The only other player to be slotted to the Cowboys more than once was Michael Brockers, who showed up on six. Courtney Upshaw, David DeCastro, Dontari Poe, and Dre Kirkpatrick all were shown as Dallas' choice exactly once.
The final chart in this series after the jump, plus a few more things I saw.
One note on selecting the mocks I used: I did find one writer, that I won't name, that seemed to want to do a big board rather than a mock draft, and just didn't want to call it what it was. He flipped Luck and RGIII at the top of his mock, even though he admitted he was aware that the Colts have already announced that they will stick with Luck. I was looking at people's best guesses as to what the teams would really do, not their view of a perfect NFL. So that one did not make the cut.
Here is the final result, with the 4.0 result for comparison.
| Selection | Draft Order 4.0 | Value | Draft Order 5.0 | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Luck QB Stanford | 480 | Andrew Luck QB Stanford | 480 | - |
| 2 | Robert Griffin III QB Baylor | 456 | Robert Griffin III QB Baylor | 456 | - |
| 3 | Matt Kalil OT USC | 430 | Matt Kalil OT USC | 424 | - |
| 4 | Trent Richardson RB Alabama | 403 | Trent Richardson RB Alabama | 405 | - |
| 5 | Morris Claiborne CB LSU | 382 | Morris Claiborne CB LSU | 389 | - |
| 6 | Justin Blackmon WR Ok. St. | 347 | Justin Blackmon WR Ok. St. | 346 | - |
| 7 | Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M | 303 | Fletcher CoxDT Miss. St. | 300 | +5 |
| 8 | Melvin IngramOLB SC | 279 | Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M | 296 | -1 |
| 9 | Riley Reiff T Iowa | 239 | Luke KuechlyILB Boston C. | 215 | +4 |
| 10 | Quentin Coples DE NC | 209 | Michael Floyd WR ND | 204 | +1 |
| 11 | Michael Floyd WR ND | 207 | Melvin Ingram OLB SC | 201 | -3 |
| 12 | Fletcher Cox DT Miss. St. | 207 | Stephon Gilmore CB SC | 186 | +7 |
| 13 | Luke Kuechly ILB Boston C. | 184 | Riley Reiff T Iowa | 183 | -4 |
| 14 | David DeCastro G Stanford | 142 | Mark Barron FS Alabama | 176 | +2 |
| 15 | Dontari Poe DT Memphis | 138 | David DeCastro G Stanford | 141 | -1 |
| 16 | Mark Barron FS Alabama | 107 | Quentin Coples DE NC | 129 | -6 |
| 17 | Michael Brockers DT LSU | 101 | Michael Brockers DT LSU | 108 | - |
| 18 | Courtney Upshaw OLB Ala. | 75 | Dontari Poe DT Memphis | 106 | -3 |
| 19 | Stephon Gilmore CB SC | 70 | Courtney Upshaw OLB Ala. | 58 | -1 |
| 20 | Cordy Glenn G Georgia | 56 | Cordy Glenn G Georgia | 48 | - |
| 21 | Whitney Mercilus DE/OLB Ill. | 50 | Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama | 42 | +1 |
| 22 | Nick Perry DE USC | 47 | Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse | 41 | +10 |
| 23 | Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama | 38 | Johnathan Martin T Stanford | 32 | +1 |
| 24 | Johnathan Martin T Stanford | 34 | Whitney Mercilus DE/OLB Ill. | 27 | -3 |
| 25 | Mike Adams T Ohio St | 16 | Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama | 18 | +5 |
| 26 | Devon Still DT PSU | 10 | Nick Perry DE USC | 12 | -4 |
| 27 | Andre Branch DE Clemson | 6 | Kendall Wright WR Baylor | 8 | +4 |
| 28 | Peter Konz C Wisconsin | 5 | Doug Martin RB Boise St | 5 | New |
| 29 | Janoris Jenkins CB N. Ala. | 5 | Shea McClellin DE Boise St | 2 | New |
| 30 | Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama | 5 | Stephen Hill WR Ga Tech | 1 | New |
| 31 | Kendall Wright WR Baylor | 4 | Bruce Irvin DE W. Va. | 1 | New |
| 32 | Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse | 3 | Peter Konz C Wisconsin | 1 | New |
There was no movement at all in the top six, and I think there will be shock and amazement if this doesn't play out very close to how it shaped up here. Just outside the acknowledged "blue chips", both Fletcher Cox and Luke Kuechly have continued to climb, and both are now seen by most as solid top ten picks. And Ryan Tannehill has solidified in most people's minds as the pick for the Dolphins - but he is still the real wildcard in the first half of the draft.
Getting down to where Dallas is going to be picking, I highlighted the same kind of "sweet spot" that I used on my post on averaging the mock boards - the seven names closest to the fourteenth pick. And this is not a bad list, at least to my eyes.
- Melvin Ingram has slid just enough on this listing to be possibly in range.
- Stephon Gilmore continues his rapid ascent. If the consensus on him is accurate, he may need to be on the Cowboys' radar.
- Riley Reiff has suddenly slid to just above the Dallas pick. There are a couple of things of interest about this. First, he does not seem to have slid as much as been leapfrogged by other names who are the shiny toy du jour. This means he should be a good value here. Dallas would have to think about him on a purely BPA basis if he makes it down another slot. And second, he could keep a certain other offensive linemen, who I will mention later, available.
- Mark Barron is right there at fourteen, and Archie is doing handsprings of joy.
- David DeCastro was shown as being taken after Dallas' pick on a lot of mocks. I am not sure that would really happen. My guess is that he may be higher than Barron on the real Dallas board. But that word "guess" should be preceded by "wild-arsed".
- Quentin Coples slides here. Most opinion here at BTB has been that he doesn't make it that long in the round. If he does, again, the team has to look hard at him.
- Michael Brockers rounds the "list of the likely" out. Not the most popular name, but one that many could live with.
- Given that some sources have indicated that Barron, DeCastro and Brockers are the "short list" for Dallas going into the draft, this is just about the ideal situation. As a matter of fact, it would almost be an embarrassment of riches.
Just as kind of a personal footnote, I was also very happy to see Dontari Poe fall outside this range. I know he has his fans, but I would just as soon see the team stay away from him.
Hope you enjoyed reading this. And very shortly, we will find out who really gets picked where. At last.