Cowboys Q&A: "Ask BTB" - Is The Third Round A Crapshoot? Part II: The Successful Teams

In Part One of this post, we looked at several methods of assessing draft success, focusing specifically on the third round of the draft, as that's where Eli Landy, the man who submitted the question, asked us to look. He asked us to look specifically at the Steelers, Patriots, Ravens, Eagles and Packers respective draft success rates in the third round (and I added the Giants and Colts), with the presupposition that their success rates are considerably higher, and would be a much better indicator of the success of draft picks by successful teams. Moreover, he asks, if their success rates are indeed higher, it would show that "the draft may not be a total crapshoot if the team knows what it's doing."

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Related: Is The Third Round A Total Crapshoot? Part I: Measuring Success

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In his question, Eli reports hearing that only 13% of third rounders are successful. I think he got that from a terrific post by a gentleman named "Matches" on, of all places, a Cleveland Cavaliers blog. Matches breaks down every draft pick from 1999-2006 into one of seven discrete categories (Superstar, Star, Upper Tier Starter, Good Starter, Depth, JAG, >8 games played) and tracks the success rates of picks from one to Mr. Irrelevant. According to his work, a third-rounder ends up becoming a "good starter" (who has been a starter for more than 80% of his seasons in the league) 13% of the time. Although I admire Matches work, I think his criteria are a bit unrealistic (not to mention subjective), which is why I turned to a few others in responding to Eli's query:

Pro Bowls: In 442 third-round selections since 2000, there have been 20 Pro Bowlers, with an accumulated total of 49 nominations, so 4.5%, or approximately one in 22 picks, become Pro Bowl players.

Remaining on the Roster: Using the 2008 draft as a test case, I noted that just over half (19) of that draft's 36 third-rounders (including end-of-round supplemental picks) remained with the team all four possible years.

Games Played: The average number of games played for these 2008 third-rounders is 41.5, or almost 65% of all possible games.

Starts: Although only 9 guys (25%) were full time starters for more than one of their four years with the team, the average number of starts is roughly half that of games played: 20.5, or 32% of all possible games.

Massey-Thaler: According to Cade Massey and Richard Thaler, third rounders from 1991-2004 were roughly 40% (pick 33) to 28 percent (pick 65) as successful as the first overall selection.

Looking at these, we have a set of standards against which we can compare the third round picks from the aforementioned teams. How do they compare? Well, you'll just have to make the jump to find out!

Okay, so now it's time to look at the league's top drafting teams. For each, I've gone back far enough (to 2000), to get a clear sense of the franchise's drafting over time. For each, I've included seasons played (to get a sense of the duration of a player's career); his last season with the team (did the franchise offer him a second contract?); career games and starts (to get a sense of his total career, even if not all of it is with his original team); Pro Bowl nods (was he considered elite? how often?); and, from Pro Football Reference, Career Approximate Value (a shaky metric, but one that at least gives us some sense of a player's career).

And: I cannot continue without a shoutout to O.C.C. for his help beautifying these tables.

Let's start with this year's (cough, hack, retch) Super Bowl champs, the Giants:

		Seasons Played	Last Season w/ Team	Career Games	Career Starts	Pro Bowls	Career AV	Notes
2000	Ron Dixon, WR	2000-02	2002	37	3
2001	Will James, CB	2001-10	2005	97	60		24	5 teams
2002	Jeff Hatch, OT	2002-03	2003	4	4		1	Didn’t play in 2002
2003	Vishanthe Shiancoe, TE	2003-11	2006	144	88		34	2007-11: Vikings
2004	None
2005	Justin Tuck, DE	2005-11	2011	96	61	2 (’08;’10)	47	Starter since 2008
2006	Gerris Wilkinson, LB	2006-11	2010	58	7		6	2011: Jaguars
2007	Jay Alford, DT	2007-2011	2008	36	3		4	3 teams
2008	Mario Manningham, WR	2008-11	2011	50	28		18	2012: 49ers
2009	Ramses Barden	2009-11	2011	12	0		2
2009	Travis Beckum	2009-11	2011	44	4		6	Injured in Super Bowl
2010	Chad Jones, DB	2010-11	2011	0	0		0	Car accident
2011	Jerrel Jernigan, WR	2011	2011	8	0		0

Since players drafted in, say, 2002 and 2007 have a wide disparity on possible games played and starts, I've had to factor in possible starts per year for each season. With this in mind, the Giants' third-rounders have played in 586 of a possible 1,168 games (50.2%), and started 258 of those (22.1%). They have one Pro Bowl player, who has gone to two Pro Bowls, and their eight picks between 2000-08 spent a total of 34 seasons on the Giants roster, for an average of 4.25 years (the highest among teams I studied).

If you thought it was tough to stomach the Giants, here are the Eagles:

		Seasons Played	Last Season w/ Team	Career Games	Career Starts	Pro Bowls	Career AV	Notes
2000	None
2001	Derrick Burgess, DE	2001-10	2004	102	73	2 (’05; ‘06)	41	Pro Bowls with Raiders
2002	Brian Westbrook, RB	2002-10	2009	121	90	2 (’04; ’07)	69
2003	Billy MacMullen, WR	2003-08	2005	49	2		5	3 teams
2004	Matt Ware, DB	2004-10	2005	95	3		6	2006-10: Cardinals
2005	Ryan Moats, RB	2005-09	2006	38	3		7	2008-09: Texans
2006	Chris Gocong, LB	2006-11	2009	79	67		33	2010-11: Browns
2007	Stewart Bradley, LB	2007-11	2010	60	31		18	2011: Cardinals
2008	Bryan Smith, LB	2008-10	2008	0	0		0	2010: Jaguars
2009	None
2010	Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, DE	2010-11	2011	6	0		0	2011: Bucs
2011	Curtis Marsh, DB	2011	2011	7	0		0

The Eagles amassed 550 of 1008 possible games played (54.6%), with 269 starts (26.7%). They drafted two Pro Bowlers in the third round (although one of those, Burgess, didn't earn his nods with the Eagles). The players drafted from 2000-08 averages 3.5 years on the Eagles roster.

Next up: the Packers:

		Seasons Played	Last Season w/ Team	Career Games	Career Starts	Pro Bowls	Career AV	Notes
2000	Steve Warren, DT	2000-02	2002	25	0		2	Injury-plagued career
2001	Bhawoh Jue, DB	2001-07	2004	76	27		14	4 teams
2001	Torrance Marshall, LB	2001-2004	2004	51	2		6
2002	Marques Anderson, SS	2002-05	2003	54	28		6	4 teams
2003	Kenny Petersen, DT	2003-09	2005	76	15		11	2006-09: Broncos
2004	Joey Thomas, DB	2004-09	2005	31	1		4	4 teams
2004	Donnell Washington, DT	2004-05	2005	0	0		0	washout
2005	None
2006	Abdul Hodge, LB	2006-10	2006	35	1		2	3 teams
2006	Jason Spitz, OG	20006-11	2010	74	45		19	2011: Jaguars
2007	James Jones, WR	2007-11	2011	74	17		26
2007	Aaron Rouse, DB	2007-09	2009	41	18		11	Half of 2009: Giants
2008	Jermichael Finley, TE	2008-11	2011	48	29		25	Starter since ‘09
2009	None
2010	Morgan Burnett, FS	2010-11	2011	20	20		7
2011	Alex Green, RB	2011	2011	4	0		0

Green Bay tied for the most third round picks in the years under examination (14). Of a possible 1,568 games, their players played in 609 (38.8%) but started only 203 (a study-low 12.9%). Also, they managed no Pro Bowl nods, and their players stayed on the Packers' roster an average of 3.8 seasons.

Now, let's move on to the AFC, with the team that most recently won a Lombardi, the Steelers:

		Seasons Played	Last Season w/ Team	Career Games	Career Starts	Pro Bowls	Career AV	Notes
2000	Kendrick Clancy, DL	2000-09	2004	109	46		23	4 teams
2000	Hank Poteat, CB	2000-08	2002	110	20		20	5 teams
2001	None
2002	Chris Hope, FS	2002-11	2005	147	109	1 (2008)	43	’06-’11: Titans
2003	None
2004	Max Starks, OT	2004-11	2011	107	79		37
2005	Trai Essex, OT	2005-11	2011	75	28		16
2006	Anthony Smith, FS	2006-11	2008	76	19		15	5 teams
2006	Willie Reid, WR	2006-07	2007	7	0		1	out of NFL
2007	Matt Spaeth, TE	2007-11	2010	75	47		11	2011: Bears
2008	Bruce Davis, LB	2008-11	2008	15	0		0	3 teams
2009	Kraig Urbik, OL	2009-11	2009	23	15		7	2011: starter w/ Bills
2009	Mike Wallace, WR	2009-11	2011			1(2011)	27	#1 career YPC among active players
2009	Keenan Lewis, CB	2009-11	2011	29	1		3	ST; backup
2010	Emmanuel Sanders, WR	2010-11	2011	24	2		5	contributor
2011	Curtis Brown, DB	2011	2011	12	0		1

The Steelers also had 14 third-round selections between 2000-11. Of a possible 1,312 games, their draftees played in 809 (a whopping 61.7%), starting 366 of them (27.9%), both highs for this study. Of their two Pro Bowlers, only one, Mike Wallace, made it as a member of the Steelers. Their third round selections averaged 4.11 seasons on the Steelers' roster.

And here is the Patriots' recent third-round draft history:

		Seasons Played	Last Season w/ Team	Career Games	Career Starts	Pro Bowls	Career AV	Notes
2000	JR Redmond, RB	2000-04	2002	50	6			‘03-’04:Raiders
2001	Brock Williams, DB	2001-04	2001					3 teams
2002	None
2003	None
2004	Guss Scott, DB	2005-06	2006	17	2		1	’06: Texans
2005	Ellis Hobbs, CB	2005-10	2008	79	56		29	2009-10:Eagles
2005	Nick Kaczur, OT	2005-09	2009	68	62		35	career-ending injury ‘09
2006	David Thomas, TE	2006-11	2008	65	31		14	2010-11:Saints
2007	None
2008	Shawn Crable, LB	2008-10	2010	6	0		0	injured 2008-09
2008	Kevin O’Connell, QB	2008-11	2008	2	0			4 teams
2009	Brandon Tate, WR	2009-11	2010	34	11		9	2011:Bengals
2009	Tyrone MacKenzie, LB	2009-11	2010	3	0		0	Never played for Pats
2010	Taylor Price, WR	2010-11	2010	6	0		1	2011: Jaguars
2011	Stevan Ridley	2011	2011	15	2		4	rookie starter
2011	Ryan Mallett	2011	2011	0	0		0

It's not so pretty. Of a possible 1,104 games, New England's third round picks played in 345 (31.3%, the lowest in the study) and started 170 (15.9%). They drafted no Pro Bowlers and the players they selected remained on the Pats' roster an average of 3.14 years (insert joke about Bill Belichick and Pi here).

Moving back to the AFC North, here are the Ravens' third rounders this millennium:

		Seasons Played	Last Season w/ Team	Career Games	Career Starts	Pro Bowls	Career AV	Notes
2000	Chris Redman, QB	2000-11	2003	30	12		9	2007-11: Falcons
2001	Casey Rabach, OC	2001-10	2004	137	118			2005-10: Redskins
2002	None
2003	Musa Smith, RB	2003-07	2007	49	1		6	Entire career with Ravens
2004	Devard Darling, WR	2004-08	2007	46	10		1	2008: Chiefs
2005	None
2006	David Pittman, DB	2006-07	2007	7	1		1	Played only ‘07
2007	Yamon Figures, WR	2007-10	2008	34	0		2	4 teams
2007	Marshall Yanda, OG	2007-11	2011	69	58	1 (2011)	28
2008	Tavares Gooden, LB	2008-11	2010	42	12		7	2011: 49ers
2008	Tom Zbikowski, DB	2008-11	2011	53	14		8	key backup
2009	Ladarius Webb	2009-11	2011	44	19		15	starter in 2011
2010	Ed Dickson, TE	2010-11	2011	31	19		10	played in 31 out of 32 games
2011	Jah Reid, OT	2011	2011	15	0		1

Baltimore's third-rounders have played in 557 of a possible 1,120 games (49.7%), starting 264 of them (23.6%). They have one Pro Bowler, and it was for last season. Their draftees have averaged 3.6 years on the Ravens' roster.

And, finally, the Indianapolis Colts, our final AFC representative:

		Seasons Played	Last Season w/ Team	Career Games	Career Starts	Pro Bowls	Career AV	Notes
2000	David Macklin, DB	2000-08	2003	120	75		30	5 teams
2001	Cory Bird, DB	2001-04	2004	45	8		6
2002	Joe Jefferson, DB	2002-05	2005	27	5		3
2003	Donald Strickland, CB	2003-11	2005	89	25		12	6 teams
2004	Ben Hartsock, TE	2004-11	2005	103	41		10	career backup
2004	Gilbert Gardner, LB	2004-08	2006	53	15		8	4 teams
2005	Vincent Burns, DT	2005-06	2006	0	0		0	Injury bug
2006	Freddy Keiaho, LB	2006-10	2009	55	27		16	2010: Jaguars
2007	Dante Hughes, DB	2007-11	2008	52	2		4	2009-11: Chargers
2007	Quinn Pitcock, DT	2007	2007	9	1		2	quit due to video game addiction
2008	Phillip Wheeler, LB	2008-11	2011	61	24
2009	Jerraud Powers, DB	2009-11	2011	34	34		9	Starter from jump
2010	Kevin Thomas, DB	2010-11	2011	0	0		0	Knee injury
2011	Drake Nevis, DT	2011	2011	5	0		1

It looks like Bill Polian likes to take defensive backs in the third round. Of a possible 1,456 games, the Colts third rounders have played in 653 (44.8%) and started 17.7 % of them (257). The other numbers are fairly dismal: no Pro Bowlers and a study-low average of 3.0 years on the Colts' roster.

Conclusions: I found the totals to be interesting. The averages for all of these teams are as follows: their third round picks played in 47.0% of total possible games, starting 20.5% of those. Comparing those numbers to our league-wide totals from the 2008 draft, 41.5% and 20.5%, respectively, we see that these teams managed to get more games played out of their third rounders, but that the percentage of games started is exactly the same.

Of 89 picks, these teams drafted 6 Pro Bowlers (6.7%), 4 of whom (4.5%) played for the team that drafted them. Comparing those totals to the league-wide totals, we see similar numbers - and, if we only count home-grown Pro Bowls, they are exactly the same: 4.5%.

So, what's the takeaway? I'm inclined to agree with Cade Massey, who posits that, over the long haul, wherein we can accrue a large enough sample size, there is no difference in drafting ability between teams relative to the location of the pick. As Massey notes, the best drafting teams acquire more high-round choices, because they know that, for every Brian Westbrook there will be a Bryan Smith.

As Cowboys fans, its important to step back and take this in. We have vilified the Cowboys' braintrust for their third round ineptitude; certainly, it hasn't been pretty. But looking back over their history, not all is bad: DeMarco Murray, Jason Hatcher and, yes, one Jason Witten. A central problem had been that they have traded away third rounders in otherwise stellar drafts in 2005, 2008 and 2010. As Massey makes clear, you can't win the lottery if you don't have a ticket.

ADDED BY POPULAR DEMAND:

		Seasons Played	Last Season w/ Team	Career Games	Career Starts	Pro Bowls	Career AV	Notes
2001	Willie Blade	2003-04	2003	20	15		8	3 Teams
2002	Derek Ross	2002-04	2003	33	9		8	3 teams
2003	Jason Witten	2003-11	2011	143	133	7	76	Future HoF
2004	Stephen Peterman	2005-11	2005	74	70		25	2006: Lions
2006	Jason Hatcher	2006-11	2011	88	11		11	Breakout in 2012?
2007	James Marten	2008	2008	1	0		0	4 teams
2009	Robert Brewster	- -	2010	0	0		0	Playing in AFL
2009	Jason Williams	2009-11	2010	28	4		3	2010: Panthers
2011	DeMarco Murray	2011	2011	13	7		7	Stud

The numbers for the Cowboys are obviously dominated by Jason Witten, but other teams have Pro Bowlers as well, so it is what it is. The Cowboys' third-rounders have played in 399 of a possible 896 games (44.5%), and started 250 of those (27.9%). The start percentage is tied with the Steelers for the best value among all teams in this survey. They have one Pro Bowl player, who has gone to seven Pro Bowls (again, the best value among all teams here), and their six picks between 2000-08 spent a total of 34 seasons on the Cowboys roster, for an average of 3.83 years, the third highest value among the teams here.