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In Part One of this post, we looked at several methods of assessing draft success, focusing specifically on the third round of the draft, as that's where Eli Landy, the man who submitted the question, asked us to look. He asked us to look specifically at the Steelers, Patriots, Ravens, Eagles and Packers respective draft success rates in the third round (and I added the Giants and Colts), with the presupposition that their success rates are considerably higher, and would be a much better indicator of the success of draft picks by successful teams. Moreover, he asks, if their success rates are indeed higher, it would show that "the draft may not be a total crapshoot if the team knows what it's doing."
In his question, Eli reports hearing that only 13% of third rounders are successful. I think he got that from a terrific post by a gentleman named "Matches" on, of all places, a Cleveland Cavaliers blog. Matches breaks down every draft pick from 1999-2006 into one of seven discrete categories (Superstar, Star, Upper Tier Starter, Good Starter, Depth, JAG, >8 games played) and tracks the success rates of picks from one to Mr. Irrelevant. According to his work, a third-rounder ends up becoming a "good starter" (who has been a starter for more than 80% of his seasons in the league) 13% of the time. Although I admire Matches work, I think his criteria are a bit unrealistic (not to mention subjective), which is why I turned to a few others in responding to Eli's query:
Pro Bowls: In 442 third-round selections since 2000, there have been 20 Pro Bowlers, with an accumulated total of 49 nominations, so 4.5%, or approximately one in 22 picks, become Pro Bowl players.
Remaining on the Roster: Using the 2008 draft as a test case, I noted that just over half (19) of that draft's 36 third-rounders (including end-of-round supplemental picks) remained with the team all four possible years.
Games Played: The average number of games played for these 2008 third-rounders is 41.5, or almost 65% of all possible games.
Starts: Although only 9 guys (25%) were full time starters for more than one of their four years with the team, the average number of starts is roughly half that of games played: 20.5, or 32% of all possible games.
Massey-Thaler: According to Cade Massey and Richard Thaler, third rounders from 1991-2004 were roughly 40% (pick 33) to 28 percent (pick 65) as successful as the first overall selection.
Looking at these, we have a set of standards against which we can compare the third round picks from the aforementioned teams. How do they compare? Well, you'll just have to make the jump to find out!
Okay, so now it's time to look at the league's top drafting teams. For each, I've gone back far enough (to 2000), to get a clear sense of the franchise's drafting over time. For each, I've included seasons played (to get a sense of the duration of a player's career); his last season with the team (did the franchise offer him a second contract?); career games and starts (to get a sense of his total career, even if not all of it is with his original team); Pro Bowl nods (was he considered elite? how often?); and, from Pro Football Reference, Career Approximate Value (a shaky metric, but one that at least gives us some sense of a player's career).
And: I cannot continue without a shoutout to O.C.C. for his help beautifying these tables.
Let's start with this year's (cough, hack, retch) Super Bowl champs, the Giants:
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Seasons Played |
Last Season w/ Team |
Career Games |
Career Starts |
Pro Bowls |
Career AV |
Notes | |
2000 | Ron Dixon, WR | 2000-02 | 2002 | 37 | 3 | |||
2001 | Will James, CB | 2001-10 | 2005 | 97 | 60 | 24 | 5 teams | |
2002 | Jeff Hatch, OT | 2002-03 | 2003 | 4 | 4 | 1 | Didn’t play in 2002 | |
2003 | Vishanthe Shiancoe, TE | 2003-11 | 2006 | 144 | 88 | 34 | 2007-11: Vikings | |
2004 | None | |||||||
2005 | Justin Tuck, DE | 2005-11 | 2011 | 96 | 61 | 2 (’08;’10) | 47 | Starter since 2008 |
2006 | Gerris Wilkinson, LB | 2006-11 | 2010 | 58 | 7 | 6 | 2011: Jaguars | |
2007 | Jay Alford, DT | 2007-2011 | 2008 | 36 | 3 | 4 | 3 teams | |
2008 | Mario Manningham, WR | 2008-11 | 2011 | 50 | 28 | 18 | 2012: 49ers | |
2009 | Ramses Barden | 2009-11 | 2011 | 12 | 0 | 2 | ||
2009 | Travis Beckum | 2009-11 | 2011 | 44 | 4 | 6 | Injured in Super Bowl | |
2010 | Chad Jones, DB | 2010-11 | 2011 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Car accident | |
2011 | Jerrel Jernigan, WR | 2011 | 2011 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Since players drafted in, say, 2002 and 2007 have a wide disparity on possible games played and starts, I've had to factor in possible starts per year for each season. With this in mind, the Giants' third-rounders have played in 586 of a possible 1,168 games (50.2%), and started 258 of those (22.1%). They have one Pro Bowl player, who has gone to two Pro Bowls, and their eight picks between 2000-08 spent a total of 34 seasons on the Giants roster, for an average of 4.25 years (the highest among teams I studied).
If you thought it was tough to stomach the Giants, here are the Eagles:
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Seasons Played |
Last Season w/ Team |
Career Games |
Career Starts |
Pro Bowls |
Career AV |
Notes | |
2000 | None | |||||||
2001 | Derrick Burgess, DE | 2001-10 | 2004 | 102 | 73 | 2 (’05; ‘06) | 41 | Pro Bowls with Raiders |
2002 | Brian Westbrook, RB | 2002-10 | 2009 | 121 | 90 | 2 (’04; ’07) | 69 | |
2003 | Billy MacMullen, WR | 2003-08 | 2005 | 49 | 2 | 5 | 3 teams | |
2004 | Matt Ware, DB | 2004-10 | 2005 | 95 | 3 | 6 | 2006-10: Cardinals | |
2005 | Ryan Moats, RB | 2005-09 | 2006 | 38 | 3 | 7 | 2008-09: Texans | |
2006 | Chris Gocong, LB | 2006-11 | 2009 | 79 | 67 | 33 | 2010-11: Browns | |
2007 | Stewart Bradley, LB | 2007-11 | 2010 | 60 | 31 | 18 | 2011: Cardinals | |
2008 | Bryan Smith, LB | 2008-10 | 2008 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2010: Jaguars | |
2009 | None | |||||||
2010 | Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, DE | 2010-11 | 2011 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2011: Bucs | |
2011 | Curtis Marsh, DB | 2011 | 2011 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
The Eagles amassed 550 of 1008 possible games played (54.6%), with 269 starts (26.7%). They drafted two Pro Bowlers in the third round (although one of those, Burgess, didn't earn his nods with the Eagles). The players drafted from 2000-08 averages 3.5 years on the Eagles roster.
Next up: the Packers:
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Seasons Played |
Last Season w/ Team |
Career Games |
Career Starts |
Pro Bowls |
Career AV |
Notes | |
2000 | Steve Warren, DT | 2000-02 | 2002 | 25 | 0 | 2 | Injury-plagued career | |
2001 | Bhawoh Jue, DB | 2001-07 | 2004 | 76 | 27 | 14 | 4 teams | |
2001 | Torrance Marshall, LB | 2001-2004 | 2004 | 51 | 2 | 6 | ||
2002 | Marques Anderson, SS | 2002-05 | 2003 | 54 | 28 | 6 | 4 teams | |
2003 | Kenny Petersen, DT | 2003-09 | 2005 | 76 | 15 | 11 | 2006-09: Broncos | |
2004 | Joey Thomas, DB | 2004-09 | 2005 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 4 teams | |
2004 | Donnell Washington, DT | 2004-05 | 2005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | washout | |
2005 | None | |||||||
2006 | Abdul Hodge, LB | 2006-10 | 2006 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 3 teams | |
2006 | Jason Spitz, OG | 20006-11 | 2010 | 74 | 45 | 19 | 2011: Jaguars | |
2007 | James Jones, WR | 2007-11 | 2011 | 74 | 17 | 26 | ||
2007 | Aaron Rouse, DB | 2007-09 | 2009 | 41 | 18 | 11 | Half of 2009: Giants | |
2008 | Jermichael Finley, TE | 2008-11 | 2011 | 48 | 29 | 25 | Starter since ‘09 | |
2009 | None | |||||||
2010 | Morgan Burnett, FS | 2010-11 | 2011 | 20 | 20 | 7 | ||
2011 | Alex Green, RB | 2011 | 2011 | 4 | 0 |
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Green Bay tied for the most third round picks in the years under examination (14). Of a possible 1,568 games, their players played in 609 (38.8%) but started only 203 (a study-low 12.9%). Also, they managed no Pro Bowl nods, and their players stayed on the Packers' roster an average of 3.8 seasons.
Now, let's move on to the AFC, with the team that most recently won a Lombardi, the Steelers:
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Seasons Played |
Last Season w/ Team |
Career Games |
Career Starts |
Pro Bowls |
Career AV |
Notes | |
2000 | Kendrick Clancy, DL | 2000-09 | 2004 | 109 | 46 | 23 | 4 teams | |
2000 | Hank Poteat, CB | 2000-08 | 2002 | 110 | 20 | 20 | 5 teams | |
2001 | None | |||||||
2002 | Chris Hope, FS | 2002-11 | 2005 | 147 | 109 | 1 (2008) | 43 | ’06-’11: Titans |
2003 | None | |||||||
2004 | Max Starks, OT | 2004-11 | 2011 | 107 | 79 | 37 | ||
2005 | Trai Essex, OT | 2005-11 | 2011 | 75 | 28 | 16 | ||
2006 | Anthony Smith, FS | 2006-11 | 2008 | 76 | 19 | 15 | 5 teams | |
2006 | Willie Reid, WR | 2006-07 | 2007 | 7 | 0 | 1 | out of NFL | |
2007 | Matt Spaeth, TE | 2007-11 | 2010 | 75 | 47 | 11 | 2011: Bears | |
2008 | Bruce Davis, LB | 2008-11 | 2008 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3 teams | |
2009 | Kraig Urbik, OL | 2009-11 | 2009 | 23 | 15 | 7 | 2011: starter w/ Bills | |
2009 | Mike Wallace, WR | 2009-11 | 2011 | 1(2011) | 27 | #1 career YPC among active players | ||
2009 | Keenan Lewis, CB | 2009-11 | 2011 | 29 | 1 | 3 | ST; backup | |
2010 | Emmanuel Sanders, WR | 2010-11 | 2011 | 24 | 2 | 5 | contributor | |
2011 | Curtis Brown, DB | 2011 | 2011 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
The Steelers also had 14 third-round selections between 2000-11. Of a possible 1,312 games, their draftees played in 809 (a whopping 61.7%), starting 366 of them (27.9%), both highs for this study. Of their two Pro Bowlers, only one, Mike Wallace, made it as a member of the Steelers. Their third round selections averaged 4.11 seasons on the Steelers' roster.
And here is the Patriots' recent third-round draft history:
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Seasons Played |
Last Season w/ Team |
Career Games |
Career Starts |
Pro Bowls |
Career AV |
Notes | |
2000 | JR Redmond, RB | 2000-04 | 2002 | 50 | 6 |
‘03-’04:Raiders | ||
2001 | Brock Williams, DB | 2001-04 | 2001 | 3 teams | ||||
2002 | None | |||||||
2003 | None | |||||||
2004 | Guss Scott, DB | 2005-06 | 2006 | 17 | 2 | 1 | ’06: Texans |
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2005 | Ellis Hobbs, CB | 2005-10 | 2008 | 79 | 56 | 29 | 2009-10:Eagles | |
2005 | Nick Kaczur, OT | 2005-09 | 2009 | 68 | 62 | 35 | career-ending injury ‘09 | |
2006 | David Thomas, TE | 2006-11 | 2008 | 65 | 31 | 14 | 2010-11:Saints | |
2007 | None | |||||||
2008 | Shawn Crable, LB | 2008-10 | 2010 | 6 | 0 | 0 | injured 2008-09 | |
2008 | Kevin O’Connell, QB | 2008-11 | 2008 | 2 | 0 | 4 teams | ||
2009 | Brandon Tate, WR | 2009-11 | 2010 | 34 | 11 | 9 | 2011:Bengals | |
2009 | Tyrone MacKenzie, LB | 2009-11 | 2010 | 3 | 0 | 0 | Never played for Pats | |
2010 | Taylor Price, WR | 2010-11 | 2010 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2011: Jaguars | |
2011 | Stevan Ridley | 2011 | 2011 | 15 | 2 | 4 | rookie starter | |
2011 | Ryan Mallett | 2011 | 2011 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
It's not so pretty. Of a possible 1,104 games, New England's third round picks played in 345 (31.3%, the lowest in the study) and started 170 (15.9%). They drafted no Pro Bowlers and the players they selected remained on the Pats' roster an average of 3.14 years (insert joke about Bill Belichick and Pi here).
Moving back to the AFC North, here are the Ravens' third rounders this millennium:
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Seasons Played |
Last Season w/ Team |
Career Games |
Career Starts |
Pro Bowls |
Career AV |
Notes | |
2000 | Chris Redman, QB | 2000-11 | 2003 | 30 | 12 | 9 | 2007-11: Falcons | |
2001 | Casey Rabach, OC | 2001-10 | 2004 | 137 | 118 | 2005-10: Redskins | ||
2002 | None | |||||||
2003 | Musa Smith, RB | 2003-07 | 2007 | 49 | 1 | 6 | Entire career with Ravens | |
2004 | Devard Darling, WR | 2004-08 | 2007 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 2008: Chiefs | |
2005 | None | |||||||
2006 | David Pittman, DB | 2006-07 | 2007 | 7 | 1 | 1 | Played only ‘07 | |
2007 | Yamon Figures, WR | 2007-10 | 2008 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 4 teams | |
2007 | Marshall Yanda, OG | 2007-11 | 2011 | 69 | 58 | 1 (2011) | 28 | |
2008 | Tavares Gooden, LB | 2008-11 | 2010 | 42 | 12 | 7 | 2011: 49ers | |
2008 | Tom Zbikowski, DB | 2008-11 | 2011 | 53 | 14 | 8 | key backup | |
2009 | Ladarius Webb | 2009-11 | 2011 | 44 | 19 | 15 | starter in 2011 | |
2010 | Ed Dickson, TE | 2010-11 | 2011 | 31 | 19 | 10 | played in 31 out of 32 games | |
2011 | Jah Reid, OT | 2011 | 2011 | 15 | 0 | 1 |
Baltimore's third-rounders have played in 557 of a possible 1,120 games (49.7%), starting 264 of them (23.6%). They have one Pro Bowler, and it was for last season. Their draftees have averaged 3.6 years on the Ravens' roster.
And, finally, the Indianapolis Colts, our final AFC representative:
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Seasons Played |
Last Season w/ Team |
Career Games |
Career Starts |
Pro Bowls |
Career AV |
Notes | |
2000 | David Macklin, DB | 2000-08 | 2003 | 120 | 75 | 30 | 5 teams | |
2001 | Cory Bird, DB | 2001-04 | 2004 | 45 | 8 | 6 | ||
2002 | Joe Jefferson, DB | 2002-05 | 2005 | 27 | 5 | 3 | ||
2003 | Donald Strickland, CB | 2003-11 | 2005 | 89 | 25 | 12 | 6 teams | |
2004 | Ben Hartsock, TE | 2004-11 | 2005 | 103 | 41 | 10 | career backup | |
2004 | Gilbert Gardner, LB | 2004-08 | 2006 | 53 | 15 | 8 | 4 teams | |
2005 | Vincent Burns, DT | 2005-06 | 2006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Injury bug | |
2006 | Freddy Keiaho, LB | 2006-10 | 2009 | 55 | 27 | 16 | 2010: Jaguars | |
2007 | Dante Hughes, DB | 2007-11 | 2008 | 52 | 2 | 4 | 2009-11: Chargers | |
2007 | Quinn Pitcock, DT | 2007 | 2007 | 9 | 1 | 2 | quit due to video game addiction | |
2008 | Phillip Wheeler, LB | 2008-11 | 2011 | 61 | 24 | |||
2009 | Jerraud Powers, DB | 2009-11 | 2011 | 34 | 34 | 9 | Starter from jump | |
2010 | Kevin Thomas, DB | 2010-11 | 2011 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Knee injury | |
2011 | Drake Nevis, DT | 2011 | 2011 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
It looks like Bill Polian likes to take defensive backs in the third round. Of a possible 1,456 games, the Colts third rounders have played in 653 (44.8%) and started 17.7 % of them (257). The other numbers are fairly dismal: no Pro Bowlers and a study-low average of 3.0 years on the Colts' roster.
Conclusions: I found the totals to be interesting. The averages for all of these teams are as follows: their third round picks played in 47.0% of total possible games, starting 20.5% of those. Comparing those numbers to our league-wide totals from the 2008 draft, 41.5% and 20.5%, respectively, we see that these teams managed to get more games played out of their third rounders, but that the percentage of games started is exactly the same.
Of 89 picks, these teams drafted 6 Pro Bowlers (6.7%), 4 of whom (4.5%) played for the team that drafted them. Comparing those totals to the league-wide totals, we see similar numbers - and, if we only count home-grown Pro Bowls, they are exactly the same: 4.5%.
So, what's the takeaway? I'm inclined to agree with Cade Massey, who posits that, over the long haul, wherein we can accrue a large enough sample size, there is no difference in drafting ability between teams relative to the location of the pick. As Massey notes, the best drafting teams acquire more high-round choices, because they know that, for every Brian Westbrook there will be a Bryan Smith.
As Cowboys fans, its important to step back and take this in. We have vilified the Cowboys' braintrust for their third round ineptitude; certainly, it hasn't been pretty. But looking back over their history, not all is bad: DeMarco Murray, Jason Hatcher and, yes, one Jason Witten. A central problem had been that they have traded away third rounders in otherwise stellar drafts in 2005, 2008 and 2010. As Massey makes clear, you can't win the lottery if you don't have a ticket.
ADDED BY POPULAR DEMAND:
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Seasons Played |
Last Season w/ Team |
Career Games |
Career Starts |
Pro Bowls |
Career AV |
Notes | |
2001 | Willie Blade | 2003-04 | 2003 | 20 | 15 | 8 | 3 Teams | |
2002 | Derek Ross | 2002-04 | 2003 | 33 | 9 | 8 | 3 teams | |
2003 | Jason Witten | 2003-11 | 2011 | 143 | 133 | 7 | 76 | Future HoF |
2004 | Stephen Peterman | 2005-11 | 2005 | 74 | 70 | 25 | 2006: Lions | |
2006 | Jason Hatcher | 2006-11 | 2011 | 88 | 11 | 11 | Breakout in 2012? | |
2007 | James Marten | 2008 | 2008 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 teams | |
2009 | Robert Brewster | - - | 2010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Playing in AFL | |
2009 | Jason Williams | 2009-11 | 2010 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 2010: Panthers | |
2011 | DeMarco Murray | 2011 | 2011 | 13 | 7 | 7 | Stud |
The numbers for the Cowboys are obviously dominated by Jason Witten, but other teams have Pro Bowlers as well, so it is what it is. The Cowboys' third-rounders have played in 399 of a possible 896 games (44.5%), and started 250 of those (27.9%). The start percentage is tied with the Steelers for the best value among all teams in this survey. They have one Pro Bowl player, who has gone to seven Pro Bowls (again, the best value among all teams here), and their six picks between 2000-08 spent a total of 34 seasons on the Cowboys roster, for an average of 3.83 years, the third highest value among the teams here.
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