Cowboys vs. Packers Expert Picks: A 50-Burger In Dallas?

According to Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings, Green Bay is the second worst defense in the league. But that's no consolation for the Cowboys defense, which ranks just one spot ahead of the Packers in the 30th spot. Here's how Football Outsiders rank both teams in all three phases through Week 14:

Two top ten offenses matched up with two of the worst defenses in the league? That smells distinctly like a 50-burger is on the menu on Sunday afternoon in Dallas. If these numbers are anything to go by, special teams may make the difference in a high-scoring contest.

The eleven experts we poll below aren't so sure. Seven see the combined score exceeding 50 points, four don't see that happening. Here's what our panel thinks will happen on Sunday afternoon:

Name (Cowboys accuracy)	Pick	Score	Comment
Michael Smith, Pro Football Talk (10-3)		31-28	The Packers are pessimistic about Aaron Rodgers‘ chances, and that makes me pessimistic about the Packers’ chances. Although the Cowboys’ defense is bad enough that a Matt Flynn-led Packers offense can score some points on them, the Packers’ defense is every bit as bad, and a Tony Romo-led Cowboys offense will score more.
Don Banks, SI.com (10-3)		27-17	I would have gone with Green Bay in this near elimination game of NFC playoff hopefuls if the signs pointed to Aaron Rodgers finally returning from the broken left collarbone he suffered in Week 9. But No. 12 still seems to be a long shot to be cleared medically in time for the game.
Peter Schrager, Foxsports (9-4)		34-23	The Cowboys used to always give Brett Favre fits. He'd win everywhere else then come to Big D and get slammed. Like clockwork. Every year. Well, Matt Flynn is not Brett Favre and this Cowboys defense isn't starring Charles Haley, Jim Jeffcoat, or Ken Norton, Jr. But I like Tony Romo to get the best of the Packers in this one.
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk (9-4)		27-14	Jerry Jones said there’s no one he’d rather have running his defense than Monte Kiffin. Maybe Jones meant to say he’d rather have no one running his defense than Kiffin. Anyone could coordinate the Cowboys defense to hold down the Packers, if they again don’t have Aaron Rodgers.
The Other ESPN Guy (9-4)		30-23	Everyone watched the Bears' backup quarterback torch the Cowboys on Monday night, which has to make Matt Flynn feel good if he starts again for Aaron Rodgers. But considering the Packers have exactly one victory without Rodgers, it's awfully hard to imagine them going on the road and beating a playoff contender unless he plays.
Sam Farmer, L.A. Times (9-4)		28-20	Both teams are desperate for a win. If Aaron Rodgers can’t play, Matt Flynn will be hard-pressed to pick up a win in Dallas, even against the bottom-of-the-barrel defense of the Cowboys.
Todd Archer, ESPN Dallas (9-4)		33-27	The Cowboys are 5-1 at AT&T Stadium and had put up more than 30 points in five of those games. They were "held" to 27 in the other. If the Cowboys don't score 30 in this one, I can't see them winning. Not the way the defense has performed. Look for Tony Romo to bust out and have a big day as the Cowboys stay in the chase.
Vinny Iyer, Sporting News (9-4)		24-17	The Packers just don’t win at Dallas, and any chance of turning that tide is lost with Aaron Rodgers set to miss another game. Although the Packers got their first non-Rodgers win of the season vs. Atlanta, Dallas, even with its defensives issue, is an excellent home team, only losing in the Denver shootout. The Cowboys still aren’t quite lighting it up to better protect that D, but the newfound commitment to running DeMarco Murray pays off here. If Rodgers fill-in Matt Flynn can’t lean on a healthy Eddie Lacy, that will make Tony Romo’s job even easier.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports (8-5)		38-35	Will it be Aaron Rodgers under center for the Packers? If it is, and I think it will be, I like the Packers to score a bunch. But the Cowboys will get theirs as well. This will be an offensive shootout. Cowboys take it in a close one.
Elliot Harrison, NFL.com (8-5)		34-27	If Matt Flynn plays well, this could be Green Bay's game. But don't get us wrong: Tony Romo, who has been outstanding, can keep Dallas in it, as long as the line picks up blitzes and Terrance Williams fights for the ball when it counts. Romo also will have the advantage of facing the NFL's 25th-ranked run defense with a healthy and confident DeMarco Murray. And there's your difference in this all-important contest.
Greg Cote, Miami Herald (7-6)		31-27	Game was off betting boards into Thursday because of the questionable status of Pack QB Aaron Rodgers, who seemed more and more likely to sit out once again, meaning more Matt Flynn in a game with large playoff ramifications on both sides. Give Cheesers a big chance wih the way Dallas' defense has played lately, but make it a venue pick. Cows are 5-1 at home; Gee Bees 2-4 away. Pack's only other game in Dallas' new stadium was a Super Bowl win Feb. 6, 2011. They won't leave as happy this time.

That's a unanimous vote in favor of the Cowboys, and our pick'em panels are equally strong in declaring the Cowboys the favorites for this game.

In the five home games in Dallas this year, the combined score has reached 50 or more points three times, and the Cowboys have put up at least 27 points in each game. The line is currently set at 49 points, would you take the Over or the Under in this game?

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