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2-2, 1-3, 1-2, and 1-3. Those are the records of the four teams the Cowboys have faced so far this year. That combined opponent W/L record of 5-10 means a winning percentage of .333, the third lowest any team in the league has faced through Week 4. The only two teams to have faced softer schedules are the Texans and the Eagles, who both compiled their 3-1 records against teams with a combined 0.313 winning percentage (5-11).
We get a similar picture when we look at the combined points differential of each team's opponents. The Cowboys' opponents have a combined -95 points differential, the second lowest total in the league, while the Eagles have the third lowest total in the league with a -68 opponent point differential. Leading all teams are the Colts with a combined -118 opponent points differential (note that both the Colts and the Eagles have played the Jaguars this year, while the Cowboys have yet to do so).
Before we get any deeper into Strength of Schedule (SOS) discussions, here's something to keep in mind: To a large degree, a team's strength of schedule is determined by its own W/L record.
Take the 3-1 Cowboys. Assuming they were 1-3 instead of 3-1, their combined opponent W/L record would be 7-8 (.466) instead of 5-10 (.333). That's quite a significant swing based on your own winning percentage alone, which in very simple terms means that the more games you win, the softer your SOS gets - and vice versa.
The rest of the season:
If you're worried that the soft start will lead to a tough schedule down the road for the Cowboys, you don't really need to be. The Cowboys' opponents for the remainder of the season currently have a combined winning percentage of 0.522 (24-22), which gives the Cowboys a remaining schedule that (at this point in time) is barely above .500 in terms of opponent W/L record.
The remaining schedule is not that much different for the remaining NFC East teams. The Redskins and Eagles face opponents whose combined winning percentage currently stands at 0.556 (25-20), while the Giants face a slightly softer remaining schedule at .500 (23-23).
All of this data is summarized in the table below. For your convenience, the table is sortable and the NFC East teams are highlighted with colored rows. Click on any of the column sub-headers (W, L, %, PD) to sort the table in ascending or descending order.
2014 Strength Of Schedule by team (click column subheaders to sort)
Teams | Opponent records Weeks 1-4 | Opponent records Weeks 5-17 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | % | Point Diff. | W | L | % | Point Diff. | |
SF | 11 | 4 | 0.733 | 60 | 20 | 22 | 0.476 | 149 |
NYG | 10 | 5 | 0.667 | 50 | 23 | 23 | 0.500 | 108 |
TEN | 10 | 5 | 0.667 | 140 | 21 | 26 | 0.447 | 106 |
SEA | 7 | 4 | 0.636 | 43 | 25 | 23 | 0.521 | 47 |
BUF | 10 | 6 | 0.625 | 50 | 20 | 26 | 0.435 | 20 |
ARI | 7 | 5 | 0.583 | 50 | 24 | 23 | 0.511 | 119 |
BAL | 8 | 6 | 0.571 | 19 | 21 | 25 | 0.457 | -24 |
JAC | 9 | 7 | 0.563 | 84 | 26 | 20 | 0.565 | 29 |
CAR | 9 | 7 | 0.563 | 17 | 22 | 23 | 0.489 | -2 |
DEN | 6 | 5 | 0.545 | 81 | 24 | 25 | 0.490 | -26 |
NO | 8 | 7 | 0.533 | 51 | 25 | 22 | 0.532 | 7 |
GB | 8 | 7 | 0.533 | 15 | 24 | 24 | 0.500 | -25 |
OAK | 8 | 8 | 0.500 | -8 | 25 | 17 | 0.595 | 28 |
STL | 6 | 6 | 0.500 | -11 | 27 | 20 | 0.574 | 11 |
WAS | 8 | 8 | 0.500 | -44 | 25 | 20 | 0.556 | 56 |
CLE | 6 | 6 | 0.500 | 26 | 24 | 26 | 0.480 | -18 |
CIN | 6 | 6 | 0.500 | 11 | 22 | 27 | 0.449 | -27 |
SD | 7 | 7 | 0.500 | -52 | 19 | 26 | 0.422 | 11 |
ATL | 7 | 8 | 0.467 | -8 | 24 | 22 | 0.522 | -26 |
TB | 7 | 8 | 0.467 | -36 | 23 | 23 | 0.500 | -36 |
PIT | 7 | 8 | 0.467 | -30 | 22 | 23 | 0.489 | 60 |
KC | 7 | 8 | 0.467 | -53 | 21 | 23 | 0.477 | 33 |
CHI | 7 | 9 | 0.438 | -18 | 25 | 23 | 0.521 | -48 |
NYJ | 7 | 9 | 0.438 | -41 | 24 | 23 | 0.511 | -76 |
DET | 7 | 9 | 0.438 | -32 | 23 | 24 | 0.489 | -25 |
IND | 6 | 9 | 0.400 | -118 | 24 | 22 | 0.522 | -2 |
MIN | 6 | 9 | 0.400 | -36 | 23 | 25 | 0.479 | -47 |
NE | 6 | 10 | 0.375 | -23 | 25 | 21 | 0.543 | -74 |
MIA | 6 | 10 | 0.375 | -35 | 23 | 24 | 0.489 | -87 |
DAL | 5 | 10 | 0.333 | -95 | 24 | 22 | 0.522 | -70 |
PHI | 5 | 11 | 0.313 | -68 | 25 | 20 | 0.556 | -53 |
HOU | 5 | 11 | 0.313 | -50 | 21 | 25 | 0.457 | -57 |
So, did the Cowboys and Eagles benefit from soft starts? We saw above that a team's SOS over the first four weeks is in large part a result of its own W&/L record. In hindsight, it looks like both the Eagles and the Cowboys have played soft schedules so far, but if both teams were at 1-3, nobody would be talking about a soft schedule.
Also, if you were to take last year's W/L record as a measure of opponent strength, the Cowboys' four opponents combined for a 37-27 record in 2013, and that .578 winning percentage would move the Cowboys much closer to the top of the table above.
Four weeks is probably too short a period to make any meaningful conclusions about SOS. Collectively we may feel very good about the Cowboys' 3-1 record, just as we collectively may look down our noses at Philly's 3-1 record (achieved against the lowly Jaguars and Redskins, and with the help of the referees against the Colts), but at the end of the day, the wins are in the books and it doesn't matter how they were achieved.
Ultimately, you can only play the teams on your schedule, whoever those teams may be, and whatevere those teams' W/L record might look like at any given time. You just need to be care not to assume that because you won three out of your first four games, you'll automatically win nine out of your remaining 12 games.