Can Dallas Cowboys Contain Big Plays Vs Seattle Seahawks?

When the Cowboys switched to the 4-3 defense last season, then defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin told his players to go watch film of the Seahawks defense, because that was what the Dallas Cowboys’ new 4-3 defensive scheme would look like.

Cowboys fans at the time hustled to read up on the Seahawks defense, and one of the bookmarks I kept from that time was to an article that detailed Pete Carroll's defensive priorities. The top item on that three-item list of priorities:

A recent unpublished NFL Study conducted in recent years again concluded that giving up explosive plays (+16 in the passing game, and +12 in the running game) has a major effect on determining the outcome.

Give up either an explosive run or pass play in any given drive and the opposition will score over 75% of the time for the period studied. Conversely, if the defense limits the opposition to 3 big plays in the game or less, the offense will only generate 8.6 points per game on average.

In 2013, the Cowboys gave up 111 pass plays of 16+ yards, the most in the league, and 45 rushing plays of 12+ yards, the third most in the league. Combined, the 156 big plays allowed last year ranked the Cowboys 31st in the league, barely ahead of the Chicago Bears with 162.

But here we are in 2014, with the belated realization that it's not 2013 anymore.

And as we look at the defensive performance this year, we can see that the Cowboys have allowed a lot less big plays. The 156 big plays from last year translate into 9.8 big plays per game. This year, the Cowboys have averaged only 7.6 big plays allowed per game, which ranks them 14th in the league. Here are the details:

• Big plays allowed passing: 4.6 per game (23 total), ranked 11th
  
• Big plays allowed rushing: 3.0 per game (15 total), ranked 28th

For all their limitations as a pass defense, the Cowboys have done fairly well against big plays through the air. The best team in the league (surprisingly, the Rams) has allowed only 3.3 big plays per game. And even the Seahawks are allowing 4.5 big plays per game through the air.

More importantly, as we look to Sunday's game, the Seahawks offense is only averaging 4.0 big plays through the air, the 26th lowest value in the league. The Seahawks play a high percentage (70.5%, number one in the league) short to intermediate (11.0 yards per catch, 17th in the league) passing game. The Cowboys are moderately proficient against the big passing play, the Seahawks don't use it too much. So while the Cowboys will get burned on the occasional long pass, it's not going to be "bombs away" in Seattle on Sunday.

Instead, it will likely come down to the Cowboys' ability to stop he run, and if you've watched any of the recent Cowboys games, you'll know that's going to be a challenge. The Cowboys defense is ranked 28th against big plays on the ground, and the Seahawks offense is ranked third in big plays on the ground with 3.5 big plays per game. The only two offenses ahead of the Seahawks? The Cowboys and 49ers, both with a 3.6 average.

The Cowboys have two options of how to defend the big play on the ground. One, actually stop the run, as far-fetched as that may sound for the Cowboys. Two, jump out to an early lead and have the Seahawks pass the ball instead of running it, which carries its own risks of course.

Now that we've looked at the Cowboys defense, let's take a look at how the Seahawks are performing against Pete Carroll's number one defensive priority:

• Big plays allowed passing: 4.5 per game (18 total, 4 games), ranked 10th
  
• Big plays allowed rushing: 1.3 per game (5 total, 4 games), ranked 3rd

Any way you look at those numbers, it's not going to be an easy day for the Cowboys offense, either on the ground or through the air. But here's the thing. The top three defenses so far this year in terms of big plays allowed through the air are the following:

1. Rams - 3.3 per game (13 total, 4 games)
2. 49ers - 3.4 per game (17 total, 5 games)
3. Texans - 3.6 per game (18 total, 5 games)

And the Cowboys have played all three of those teams, beating two and losing against one. And that may be the key takeaway here. The Cowboys face long odds against the Seahawks. But if they can contain Seattle's big plays, especially on the ground, the Cowboys offense (when executing properly) can get those big plays - even against the Seahawks.

And for those of you curious about such things, you can play around with the data with the Game Play Finder on Pro-Football-Reference.com or in the sortable table below (just click on the blue column headers to sort).