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NFL Week 16 Fan Picks: Upset Weekend In The Works?

In 2014, the straight up favorites have compiled a 149-75-1 record, which means that there are an average of five upset wins on a 16-game weekend. Who could those five teams be this weekend?

Bob Levey/Getty Images
Week 16 Picks, 225 participants
Game Favorite BTB vote
GB (-12) @ TB Green Bay 97%
NE (-10.5) @ NYJ New England 96%
BUF (-6.5) @ OAK Buffalo 95%
IND @ DAL (-3.5) Dallas 95%
MIN @ MIA (-6.5) Miami 92%
SEA (-8) @ ARI Seattle 88%
DET (-8.5) @ CHI Detroit 86%
BAL (-5) @ HOU Baltimore 85%
TEN @ JAC (-3) Jacksonville 84%
ATL @ NO (-6.5) New Orleans 82%
DEN (-3) @ CIN Denver 80%
KC @ PIT (-3) Pittsburgh 77%
NYG @ STL (-5.5) St. Louis 77%
CLE @ CAR (-3.5) Carolina 72%
PHI (-7.5) @ WAS Philly 71%
SD @ SF (-1.5) San Diego 71%

Our Pick 256 Challenge is a season-long contest in which BTB members and readers get to pick the straight-up winners for all games each week.

The BTB consensus picks left almost nothing to chance this week and followed the Vegas lines in all but one game: The Chargers were picked by 71% of the Pick 256 participants despite being 1.5-point underdogs in San Francisco.

Overall, picking the favorites is not as sure a bet as it may sound. For the season, picking the straight up favorites in each game would have left you with a 149-75-1 record, or a 66.5% hit rate.

In itself, that is a pretty good value, but assuming the Week 16 games go the way the rest of the season has gone so far, we'll see the favorites win in 11 games, but can expect an upset in five more.

The Pick 256 participants think the Chargers will pull off one of those five upsets, but the data from the season so far suggets there should be four more upsets this weekend - if this weekend falls in line with the averages of the previous 15 weeks.

From a Cowboys perspective, an upset loss by the Eagles (-7.5) in Washington would be a highly desirable outcome, as would losses by the Seahawks (-8), Packers (-12), and Lions (-8.5). While all of those teams play on the road, all are favored by more than a touchdown, so outcomes favorable to the Cowboys don't seem very likely at the moment.

Nevertheless, some favorites are bound to lose this weekend.

Over to you: Which favored teams do you think are at risk of an upset loss this weekend?


Here's a link to the Excel file with all the picks for Week 16, for those who are interested in tracking the results themselves.

Pick 256 Tracker Week 16

Once you open the file, you'll see a blue title bar into which you can enter the winning teams to see where you end up among all participants. The title bar is currently populated with the winners of the Thursday games, as well as the consensus picks for the remaining games. If you want to see how you fared during or after the weekend games, simply input your own picks into the title bar and see how many correct picks you have.

In any case, have fun with the file and good luck with your picks.

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