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NFL Week 4 Fan Picks: Cowboys Fan Confidence Not Very High vs. Saints

321 readers participated in our Pick 256 Challenge for Week 4. Let's see what they are expecting for the weekend games.

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Week 4 Picks, 321 participants
Game Favorite BTB vote
JAC @ SD (-13) Chargers 100%
TEN @ IND (-8) Colts 98%
TB @ PIT (-7.5) Steelers 98%
ATL (-3) @ MIN Falcons 94%
NYG @ WAS (-3.5) Redskins 91%
DET (-1.5) @ NYJ Lions 82%
PHI @ SF (-5) 49ers 77%
NE (-3.5) @ KC Patriots 75%
MIA (-3.5) @ OAK Dolphins 74%
NO (-3) @ DAL Cowboys 65%
BUF @ HOU (-3) Texans 59%
GB (-2) @ CHI Bears 57%
CAR @ BAL (-3.5) Ravens 57%

Pick 256 is a season-long contest in which BTB members and readers get to pick the straight-up winners for all games each week. In Week 3, the consensus picks correctly predicted a very impressive 12 out of 16 games.

How many of the 13 Week 4 games will the consensus hit on this week?

For the most part, the Week 4 picks in the table on the right suggest the participants took the safe route and went with the favorites (the only exceptions are the Cowboys and the Bears). But that doesn't make them safe picks, not by a long shot, as the Thursday night game showed.

91% of the Pick 256 participants went with the Thursday Night home favorite, only to see the Redskins get embarassed by the Giants to the tune of 45-14.

This week, 321 of our readers participated in our challenge, almost the same number as last week. Interestingly, the 13 consensus picks shown in the table above were picked in that order by only 17 of the 321 participants. Overall, we had 173 different pick combinations submitted for Week 4, and 114 of those unique pick combinations were picked by only one person each.

Which of these combinations will come out ahead is anybody's guess, and chances are that nobody will get all 13 games right anyway. Especially since there are just 29 participants this week who still have a chance at a perfect record, as they were the only ones to correctly predict the winner of the Giants @ Redskins game.

Given that most of the participants in the challenge are Cowboys fans, the 65% confidence in a Cowboys win is not particulary high. In fact, it is the lowest we've seen from the Pick 256 participants so far this season:

Week 1 vs 49ers: 76%

Week 2 vs. Titans: 87%

Week 3 vs. Rams: 98%

What is your confidence level in a Cowboys win right now?


Here's a link to the Excel file with all the picks for Week 4, for those who are interested in tracking the results themselves.

Pick 256 Tracker Week 4

Once you open the file, you'll see a blue title bar into which you can enter the winning teams to see where you end up among the 321 participants. The title bar is currently populated with the winner of the Giants @ Redskins game, as well as the consensus picks for the remaining games.

If you want to see how you fared after the weekend games, simply input your own picks into the blue title bar and see how many correct picks you had. You can also live update the spreadsheet on Sunday during the games to see how you're doing as the games are going on.

In any case, have fun with the file and good luck with your picks.

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