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NFL Week 5 Fan Picks: Upset Weekend In The Works?

We take a look at the fan picks for the Week 5 games and wonder which teams will score an upset win.

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Week 5 Picks, 294 participants
Game Favorite BTB vote
WAS @ ATL (-7.5) Falcons 97%
CHI @ KC (-9.5) Chiefs 96%
STL @ GB (-9) Packers 94%
ARI (-2.5) @ DET Cardinals 90%
DEN (-4.5) @ OAK Broncos 86%
CLE @ BAL (-6.5) Ravens 85%
SEA @ CIN (-3) Bengals 83%
BUF (-2.5) @ TEN Bills 82%
PIT @ SD (-3) Chargers 81%
SF @ NYG (-7) Giants 78%
NE (-9) @ DAL Patriots 63%
IND @ HOU (-2) Colts 55%
JAC @ TB (-3) Jaguars 55%
NO @ PHI (-5) Saints 52%

Pick 256 Challenge is our a season-long contest in which BTB members and readers get to pick the straight-up winners for all games each week.

The BTB consensus picked the Vegas favorites in 11 of 14 games this weekend. One of the three underdog picks was the Colts over the Texans on Thursday, albeit by a slim margin, but that worked out well for the consensus pick.

Overall, picking the favorites is not as sure a bet as it may sound. For the first quarter of the season, picking the straight up favorites in each game would have left you with a 39-24 record, or a 62% hit rate.

In itself, that is a good value, but assuming the Week 5 games go the way the rest of the season has gone so far, we'll see the favorites win eight games, and can expect an upset in six more.

The Pick 256 participants think the Jaguars (in Tampa) and the Saints (in Philly) could pull off two more upsets. But if this weekend falls in line with the averages of the previous four weeks, the data suggests there should be three more upsets this weekend.

Over to you: Where else could you see an upset happening, and could one of those games be in Dallas this weekend?


Here's a link to the Excel file with all the picks for Week 5, for those who are interested in tracking the results themselves.

Pick 256 Tracker 2015 - Week 5

Once you open the file, you'll see a blue title bar into which you can enter the winning teams to see where you end up among all participants. The title bar is currently populated with the winner of the Thursday game, as well as the consensus picks for the remaining games. If you want to see how you fared during or after the weekend games, simply input your own picks into the title bar and see how many correct picks you have.

In any case, have fun with the file and good luck with your picks.


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