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A Brief History Of The Cowboys' 2015 Draft Picks: What Dallas Can Expect To Get

A quick look at five year's worth of players selected with the draft picks the Cowboys currently hold in the first five rounds of the 2015 NFL draft.

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL recently finalized the full order for 2015 Draft. The Cowboys will have seven selections in the draft in total, and didn't get any compensatory picks.

To get a better feel for what type of player could be waiting for the Cowboys in each round, here's an overview of the players selected in the first five rounds in the past five years with the picks the Cowboys hold this year, along with a few selected metrics:

Year Player
Pro Bowls Starter
1st Round, No. 27 overall
2014 Deone Bucannon, S, Cardinals 0 0 9
2013 DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans 0 2 32
2012 Kevin Zeitler, OG, Bengals 0 3 39
2011 Jimmy Smith, CB, Ravens 0 1 29
2010 Devin McCourty, DB, Patriots 1 3 77
2nd Round, No. 60 overall
2014 Kony Ealy, DE, Panthers 0 0 0
2013 Robert Alford, CB, Falcons 0 1 14
2012 Kelechi Osemele, OT, Ravens 0 2 37
2011 Brandon Harris, CB, HOU/TEN 0 0 0
2010 Golden Tate, WR, SEA/DET 1 3 49
3rd Round, No. 91 overall
2014 John Brown, WR, Cardinals 0 0 5
2013 Duron Harmon, S, Patriots 0 0 3
2012 Lamar Holmes, OT, Falcons 0 1 19
2011 Akeem Dent, LB, ATL/HOU 0 1 27
2010 NaVorro Bowman, LB, 49ers 2 3 49
4th Round, No. 126 overall
2014 Pierre Desir, DB, Browns 0 0 1
2013 Malliciah Goodman, DE, Falcons 0 1 11
2012 Adrien Robinson, TE, Giants 0 0 1
2011 Roc Carmichael, CB, HOU/PHI 0 0 2
2010 E.J. Wilson, DE, SEA/TB 0 0 0
5th Round, No. 163 overall
2014 Aaron Murray, QB, Chiefs 0 0 0
2013 Jordan Mills, OT, Bears 0 2 29
2012 Terrell Manning, LB, GB/SD/CHI/CIN/NYG 0 0 0
2011 Daniel Kilgore, OC, 49ers 0 0 7
2010 Reshad Jones, S, Dolphins 0 3 58

When you first looked at the chart, there's a chance your eyes may have caught on the three Pro Bowlers in this table. If you go purely by the data in this table, there's a 1-in-5 chance that the 27th pick could get a future Pro Bowler in 2015. And if you consider that four of the Cowboys last five first-round picks made the Pro Bowl, there may be reason for optimism even though the Cowboys are drafting fairly far back in the round.

There's also a 1/5 chance of drafting a future Pro Bowler in the 2nd round, and the same 1/5 odds for drafting one in the third round - again, if you go strictly by the data in this table. But don't get your hopes up too high, because you can't simply add up those probabilities, you have to multiply them. That means that in this hypothetical scenario, the odds of drafting a future Pro Bowler in the first, second, and third round are 1/125, or a little under 1%.

So while it would be fantastic to come away from the draft with a Pro Bowl cornerback, a Pro Bowl receiver, and a Pro Bowl linebacker, there are also many more permutations possible that would be much less favorable, including one where you don't get a single starter season out of any pick in the first five rounds.

How the 2015 draft class ultimately turns out is anybody's guess right now, but if the Cowboys have done their homework, then they have a chance of having a good draft, as Jason Garrett summarized a while back:

"We use the expression, ‘If we,’" Garrett said. "If we evaluated these guys the right way and saw them the right way, we feel good about their potential to compete as starters, compete for roles or be special teams guys.

"If they are who we think they are, you have a great chance of having a good draft."

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