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Post-Draft, Post-Brady 2015 Super Bowl Odds: Vegas Likes Cowboys' Offseason

Free agency, the draft and even Deflate-gate are behind us, so this is a good time to turn our eye to Vegas and see which teams improved their Super Bowl odds over the course of the offseason, and which didn't.

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Longtime readers know that we periodically chronicle the Super Bowl odds for all teams here on Blogging The Boys, most recently in February this year. We do this because because Vegas is always an interesting indicator of where public opinion - and money - is concentrating.

Free agency, the draft, and even the Tom Brady's suspension is in the books, which means now is a good time to turn our eyes to Vegas once again to see which teams moved up or down the list of Super Bowl favorites.

Per the early morning of 5/12/2015, bovada.lv has the Seahawks (11/2), Packers (7/1), and Colts (7/1) pegged as favorites to win the 2016 Super Bowl. For Seattle, that translates into a 15.4% chance at another at a Super Bowl title, Green Bay and Indianapolis have a 12.5% chance.

The Cowboys are tied for the 4th best odds with 10/1 or a 9.1% chance, a significant improvement over their position in February, when they had 18/1 odds (5.3%). Here's how the Super Bowl odds have changed for all 32 teams so far this offseason.

2016 Super Bowl Odds

Team per Feb. 2, 2015 per May 12, 2015 Change
Seattle Seahawks 14.3% (6/1) 15.4% (11/2) 1.1%
Green Bay Packers 11.1% (8/1) 12.5% (7/1) 1.4%
Indianapolis Colts 7.7% (12/1) 12.5% (7/1) 4.8%
Dallas Cowboys 5.3% (18/1) 9.1% (10/1) 3.8%
Denver Broncos 7.7% (12/1) 9.1% (10/1) 1.4%
New England Patriots 12.5% (7/1) 7.7% (12/1) -4.8%
Philadelphia Eagles 3.8% (25/1) 5.3% (18/1) 1.4%
Arizona Cardinals 2.4% (40/1) 3.8% (25/1) 1.4%
Baltimore Ravens 3.2% (30/1) 3.8% (25/1) 0.6%
Pittsburgh Steelers 3.2% (30/1) 3.8% (25/1) 0.6%
New York Giants 2.4% (40/1) 3.4% (28/1) 1.0%
New York Jets 0.8% (125/1) 2.9% (33/1) 2.1%
Buffalo Bills 1.4% (70/1) 2.9% (33/1) 1.5%
Miami Dolphins 2.2% (45/1) 2.9% (33/1) 0.8%
Kansas City Chiefs 2.4% (40/1) 2.9% (33/1) 0.5%
St. Louis Rams 2.4% (40/1) 2.9% (33/1) 0.5%
Cincinnati Bengals 2.8% (35/1) 2.9% (33/1) 0.2%
Detroit Lions 3.2% (30/1) 2.9% (33/1) -0.3%
San Francisco 49ers 3.2% (30/1) 2.9% (33/1) -0.3%
Atlanta Falcons 2.0% (50/1) 2.4% (40/1) 0.5%
Carolina Panthers 2.2% (45/1) 2.4% (40/1) 0.3%
New Orleans Saints 3.2% (30/1) 2.4% (40/1) -0.8%
Chicago Bears 1.6% (60/1) 2.0% (50/1) 0.3%
Minnesota Vikings 1.6% (60/1) 2.0% (50/1) 0.3%
Houston Texans 2.0% (50/1) 2.0% (50/1) 0.0%
San Diego Chargers 2.4% (40/1) 2.0% (50/1) -0.5%
Oakland Raiders 0.3% (300/1) 1.5% (66/1) 1.2%
Cleveland Browns 1.4% (70/1) 1.3% (75/1) -0.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.5% (200/1) 1.0% (100/1) 0.5%
Washington Redskins 0.7% (140/1) 1.0% (100/1) 0.3%
Jacksonville Jaguars 0.3% (300/1) 0.5% (200/1) 0.2%
Tennessee Titans 0.3% (300/1) 0.5% (200/1) 0.2%

Looking at Vegas odds as a way to assess team strength is always a bit tricky, as the odds are largely a reflection of where the money is going, and don't necessarily reflect true team strength. Nevertheless, it's interesting to see how the odds have changed since February. While the odds improved slightly for most teams, a few teams stand out.

According to the bookmakers, the clear winners of the 2015 offseason were Colts, Cowboys and Jets. The Colts handed out $78.7 million worth of contracts in free agency to secure the services of WR Andre Johnson, DT Kendall Langford, OLB Trent Cole, RB Frank Gore, and LB Nate Irving. The Cowboys fortified the defensive line for at least six games with Greg Hardy, re-signed key free agents of their own, and have a rookie class that's the envy of the other 31 teams. The Jets spent $180.5 million in contracts to shore up their defense, bringing in cornerbacks Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, and Buster Skrine for megabucks, and then added DT Leonard Williams to an already ridiculously stacked defensive line.

The biggest losers, if you go by the Vegas odds, are clearly the Patriots, who look like they could be without Tom Brady for four games. Vegas also does not take kindly to the flight reflex the front offices in San Francisco and Detroit triggered among their players. The Saints, Chargers, and Browns also see their odds decline against the general trend.

Keep in mind, being the early season favorite has not always proven helpful in the postseason, nor has it stopped the underdogs from making a splash: The Cowboys started the 2014 season with 66-1 odds but still went on to a 12-4 regular season record. We'll see how it goes this year.

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