2015 Dallas Cowboys Rookies: How Much Will They Contribute In Their Rookie Year?

Yesterday, we asked the BTB readers Which Cowboys Rookie Will Have The Best Season. As I'm writing this, 1,644 votes have been tallied in the poll attached to the post, and La'el Collins (36%) emerged as the favorite ahead of Randy Gregory (31%) and Byron Jones (27%). And that vote highlights a a very real possibility: The Cowboys could begin the season with three rookie starters.

When we talk about the contribution of a rookie class, we typically talk about receiving yards, sacks, or any other volume measure that's used for a specific position. But let's start with the most basic question first, how much playing time will the 2015 rookie class get during the 2015 season?

Let's start with some basic math first. Assuming all eight draft picks (plus La'el Collins) make the 53-man roster this year, they'd make up 17% of the players on the roster. So how many snaps should the 2015 rookie class get? 17% is way too high, they are rookies after all. Is ten percent a realistic target, or is that also too much? What about five percent, would that feel too low or still too high? Before you read on, make a mental note of what you think an appropriate percentage would be.

We're now going to look at the last eight draft classes too see how much playing time Cowboys rookies have gotten over the years. Here's an overview of the 2007-10 rookie classes and the number of snaps per player. The snap numbers in the tables are the offensive or defensive snaps, special teams snaps are not included.

The 2008 draft class was the "richest" draft class in the last eight years in that the Cowboys had two first-round picks and a second-rounder. But those riches didn't translate into a lot of snaps - or core players for the Cowboys. Orlando Scandrick got more snaps than both first rounders (Jones & Jenkins) and the second-rounder (Bennett), and Scandrick is the only member of that draft class left on the roster.

Jokes about the 2009 class stopped being funny a long time ago. That rookie class combined for a frighteningly low 364 snaps, just 1.5% of the total team snaps. And 2007 wasn't much better, though the claim to fame for that class is that Doug Free is still with the Cowboys.

The 2010 class saw its snap totals cut short by injuries to Dez Bryant and Sean Lee. Josh Brent, supplemental draft pick in 2010, as well as a bunch of UDFAs gave this rookie class a little boost.

Next up, the 2011-14 rookie classes:

The 2011 started a four-year trend where the first pick notched around 1,000 snaps in his rookie season, with Tyron Smith playing all but six offensive snaps in 2011. This class effectively played without second-round pick Bruce Carter, and both DeMarco Murray's as well as Bill Nagy's seasons were cut short by fractured ankles, but on the strength of Tyron Smith, this rookie class walks away with the highest total snap count yet, notching a solid 8.5% of all offensive and defensive snaps.

In 2012 the Cowboys gave up their second-round pick to draft Morris Claiborne, and given that missing pick, the snap-count total of 6.5% is actually quite good for a rookie class from which three players ended up on IR (Danny Coale, Matt Johnson, Caleb McSurdy) and a fourth, Kyle Wilber, also hardly saw the field.

In 2013, the Cowboys' decision to move down in the draft paid handsome dividends in that they got 16 starts from Travis Frederick, and an extra eight from Terrance Williams. These two rookies headlined a rookie class that played almost twice as many snaps as the next best class of the previous six years. Easily the best rookie class since 2007.

The 2014 rookie class couldn't match the snap count of the previous year's class, hampered in part by DeMarcus Lawrence's injury and the missing third-round pick needed to get Lawrence. But Anthony Hitchens proved to be a fourth-round steel, and notched the second-most snaps of any Cowboys linebacker last year.

If you look at the percentages for 2007-2010 (they average to 4.7%), you begin to understand why the Cowboys stumbled to three successive 8-8 years. And when you then look at the 2011-2014 percentage (10.0%) you've got to like what the future holds for the Cowboys.

Now that you've seen these numbers, how do these compare to the mental note you made earlier, and what snap percentage would you expect from the 2015 rookie class?

One of the interesting aspects about this year's rookie class is that almost every 2015 rookie has an equivalent rookie in one of the last eight drafts.

First-round corner? Check.

Second-day defensive end? Check.

Offensive lineman with a first-round grade? Check.

Mid-round OL, third-day LB, late-round DE, late-round TE? Check, check, check, check. So with that in mind, let's take a stab at projecting the 2015 snapcounts for this year's draft class, using only equivalent rookies from the last eight rookie classes:

Obviously, the "equivalent players" are equivalent for the purposes of the snap count only. This projection also assumes that there won't be any injuries to the nine draft picks. You may want to reduce the total number of projected snaps to adjust for that. The bulk of the snaps here are projected to go to La'el Collins and Byron Jones. Randy Gregory gets the 422 snaps from Anthony Spencer's rookie season, which is almost twice the 223 snaps DeMarcus Lawrence got in his eight games last year. And you never know who else might be called on from this rookie class

Overall, the 3,002 snaps projected here would be the second-most of any of the last eight rookie classes, which would be a pretty big positive.

With all of that in mind, what's your take? What snap percentage would you expect from the 2015 rookie class?