No conversation about the 2015 season is complete without including some mention of the coaches entering the season on the hot seat.
Seven NFL teams, or about every fifth team, replaced their head coaches following the 2014 season. Happens every year, and is bound to happen again this year. But which coaches are on the hot seat entering this season?
The Bookmaker Sportsbook ran the odds on which NFL head coach would be fired first this year. And contrary to what Tim Cowlishaw of the Dallas Morning News wrote just three weeks ago, Jason Garrett is nowhere near a hot seat. In fact, Vegas has spoken and Garrett ends up 24th on the list of NFL coaches most likely to be fired first. Here's the whole list of odds:
Rank | Coach | Team | Odds |
1 | Jay Gruden | Washington | +250 |
2 | Mike Pettine | Cleveland | +550 |
3 | Ken Whisenhunt | Tennessee | +750 |
4 | Jim Tomsula | San Francisco | +1200 |
5 | Joe Philbin | Miami | +1500 |
5 | Sean Payton | New Orleans | +1500 |
7 | Gus Bradley | Jacksonville | +1800 |
8 | Chip Kelly | Philadelphia | +2000 |
8 | Lovie Smith | Tampa Bay | +2000 |
10 | Jeff Fisher | St. Louis | +2500 |
10 | Jim Caldwell | Detroit | +2500 |
12 | Marvin Lewis | Cincinnati | +2700 |
13 | Mike Zimmer | Minnesota | +3000 |
13 | Bill O'Brien | Houston | +3000 |
15 | Tom Coughlin | New York Giants | +3300 |
16 | Jack Del Rio | Oakland | +3500 |
16 | John Fox | Chicago | +3500 |
16 | Andy Reid | Kansas City | +3500 |
16 | Ron Rivera | Carolina | +3500 |
20 | Todd Bowles | New York Jets | +4000 |
20 | Mike McCoy | San Diego | +4000 |
22 | Rex Ryan | Buffalo | +4500 |
22 | Dan Quinn | Atlanta | +4500 |
24 | Jason Garrett | Dallas | +5000 |
25 | Gary Kubiak | Denver | +6000 |
26 | Mike Tomlin | Pittsburgh | +7500 |
27 | Bruce Arians | Arizona | +10000 |
27 | John Harbaugh | Baltimore | +10000 |
29 | Chuck Pagano | Indianapolis | +15000 |
29 | Mike McCarthy | Green Bay | +15000 |
31 | Pete Carroll | Seattle | +25000 |
31 | Bill Belichick | New England | +25000 |
There will always be guys who like to hang on to old memes and continue to push tired stories about Garrett's hot seat, but that's not where the betting public's money is flowing these days.
A look across the NFC East suggests that Garrett has by far the safest coaching seat of all four coaches in the East, and the real story here may be Chip Kelly's tenuous grip on his self-constructed smoothie throne: Kelly has the eighth highest odds of being canned, according to Bookmaker.
Of course, like most other preseason rankings, a hot seat ranking this early doesn't carry much weight. On this day exactly one year ago, on August 12, 2014, Chatsports published the odds of the coaches most likely to get fired first in 2014. Garrett topped that list at the time, but went on to sign a five-year extension with the Cowboys. Here's the rest of last year's Top 10 hot seat candidates and what eventually became of them:
Coach | Team | 2014 Odds | What happened after 2014 |
Jason Garrett | Dallas | +200 | Signed 5-year contract extension |
Dennis Allen | Oakland | +400 | Fired |
Joe Philbin | Miami | +700 | Contract extended by one more year to 2016 |
Doug Marrone | Buffalo | +800 | "Opted out" of contract with Buffalo |
Rex Ryan | Jets | +1000 | Fired |
Gus Bradley | Jacksonville | +1200 | Surprisingly did not finish with worst record in the league |
Mike Smith | Atlanta | +1200 | Fired |
Marvin Lewis | Cincinnati | +2000 | Made playoffs |
Ron Rivera | Carolina | +2000 | Made playoffs |
Tom Coughlin | NY Giants | +2500 | Should have been fired |
Jeff Fisher | St. Louis | +2500 | Coached 4th consecutive losing season as head coach but wasn't fired |
Marc Trestman | Chicago | +3000 | Fired |
Mike Tomlin | Pittsburgh | +3000 | Made playoffs |
In the first firing of the 2014 season, Oakland let go of then-coach Dennis Allen after the team started 0-4. By that time, Oakland had lost an NFL-high 10 straight games dating back to November 2013, culminating in a 38-14 loss to Miami in Week 4. The Raiders finished the season 3-13.
Over to you: Which coach do you think is getting fired first this year?