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Vegas Odds Released: Which NFL Coach Is Getting Fired First?

The Dallas Cowboys are not going to fire Jason Garrett this year. But could other NFC East coaches be ranked highly on a list of most likely coach firings?

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No conversation about the 2015 season is complete without including some mention of the coaches entering the season on the hot seat.

Seven NFL teams, or about every fifth team, replaced their head coaches following the 2014 season. Happens every year, and is bound to happen again this year. But which coaches are on the hot seat entering this season?

The Bookmaker Sportsbook ran the odds on which NFL head coach would be fired first this year. And contrary to what Tim Cowlishaw of the Dallas Morning News wrote just three weeks ago, Jason Garrett is nowhere near a hot seat. In fact, Vegas has spoken and Garrett ends up 24th on the list of NFL coaches most likely to be fired first. Here's the whole list of odds:

Rank Coach Team Odds
1 Jay Gruden Washington +250
2 Mike Pettine Cleveland +550
3 Ken Whisenhunt Tennessee +750
4 Jim Tomsula San Francisco +1200
5 Joe Philbin Miami +1500
5 Sean Payton New Orleans +1500
7 Gus Bradley Jacksonville +1800
8 Chip Kelly Philadelphia +2000
8 Lovie Smith Tampa Bay +2000
10 Jeff Fisher St. Louis +2500
10 Jim Caldwell Detroit +2500
12 Marvin Lewis Cincinnati +2700
13 Mike Zimmer Minnesota +3000
13 Bill O'Brien Houston +3000
15 Tom Coughlin New York Giants +3300
16 Jack Del Rio Oakland +3500
16 John Fox Chicago +3500
16 Andy Reid Kansas City +3500
16 Ron Rivera Carolina +3500
20 Todd Bowles New York Jets +4000
20 Mike McCoy San Diego +4000
22 Rex Ryan Buffalo +4500
22 Dan Quinn Atlanta +4500
24 Jason Garrett Dallas +5000
25 Gary Kubiak Denver +6000
26 Mike Tomlin Pittsburgh +7500
27 Bruce Arians Arizona +10000
27 John Harbaugh Baltimore +10000
29 Chuck Pagano Indianapolis +15000
29 Mike McCarthy Green Bay +15000
31 Pete Carroll Seattle +25000
31 Bill Belichick New England +25000

There will always be guys who like to hang on to old memes and continue to push tired stories about Garrett's hot seat, but that's not where the betting public's money is flowing these days.

A look across the NFC East suggests that Garrett has by far the safest coaching seat of all four coaches in the East, and the real story here may be Chip Kelly's tenuous grip on his self-constructed smoothie throne: Kelly has the eighth highest odds of being canned, according to Bookmaker.

Of course, like most other preseason rankings, a hot seat ranking this early doesn't carry much weight. On this day exactly one year ago, on August 12, 2014, Chatsports published the odds of the coaches most likely to get fired first in 2014. Garrett topped that list at the time, but went on to sign a five-year extension with the Cowboys. Here's the rest of last year's Top 10 hot seat candidates and what eventually became of them:

Coach Team 2014 Odds What happened after 2014
Jason Garrett Dallas +200 Signed 5-year contract extension
Dennis Allen Oakland +400 Fired
Joe Philbin Miami +700 Contract extended by one more year to 2016
Doug Marrone Buffalo +800 "Opted out" of contract with Buffalo
Rex Ryan Jets +1000 Fired
Gus Bradley Jacksonville +1200 Surprisingly did not finish with worst record in the league
Mike Smith Atlanta +1200 Fired
Marvin Lewis Cincinnati +2000 Made playoffs
Ron Rivera Carolina +2000 Made playoffs
Tom Coughlin NY Giants +2500 Should have been fired
Jeff Fisher St. Louis +2500 Coached 4th consecutive losing season as head coach but wasn't fired
Marc Trestman Chicago +3000 Fired
Mike Tomlin Pittsburgh +3000 Made playoffs

In the first firing of the 2014 season, Oakland let go of then-coach Dennis Allen after the team started 0-4. By that time, Oakland had lost an NFL-high 10 straight games dating back to November 2013, culminating in a 38-14 loss to Miami in Week 4. The Raiders finished the season 3-13.

Over to you: Which coach do you think is getting fired first this year?

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