Here on Blogging The Boys, we've been tracking the Cowboys' playoff chances since Week 1, even though there were some questions about why we would be talking about the playoffs after losing the season opener. The Cowboys are now 4-1, and we continue with our weekly look at the Cowboys' playoff odds.
We'll start off today's look at the playoff odds with this convenient reference chart from the fine folks at 538.com, which shows the historic playoff odds for every relevant W/L record.
At 4-1, the historical playoff odds for the Cowboys stand at 77%. But 538.com doesn't agree with the historic odds. In a separate calculation that takes into account score differential, last season's record (to an extent), the unexpected nature of their wins, and more, the site only gives the Cowboys a 55% chance of making the playoffs.
Another source for playoff odds comes from our good friends at Football Outsiders. Here's how FO see the playoff odds for winning the division, getting a by week, or gaining a wild card berth:
|Team||Record||Mean Proj. Wins||DIV||BYE||WC||TOTAL||Change|
The 65.9% for the Cowboys is the lowest number of any team with a 4-1 record, according to Football Outsiders. In part, that is owed to the strength of the NFC East this year, which results in the Cowboys having the third-toughest remaining schedule in the NFL (behind the Eagles at No. 1 and the Redskins at No. 2). But the number also reflects Tony Romo's absence. The Cowboys rating will increase by 4.5% when Tony Romo returns.
If the season were to end today, the Cowboys would be the No. 2 seed in the NFC, would sit out the wildcard round, and would face the winner of the wildcard game between Atlanta and Philadelphia in the divisional round. Of course, a lot of things can change between now and then, but for now, the Cowboys are on the right trajectory, and reinforcements are arriving in the form of Dez Bryant (perhaps as early as this week), and Tony Romo probably after the bye.
Even Vegas has taken notice. With Dak Prescott leading the Cowboys to a 4-1 record, BookMaker.eu has made Dallas the favorite to win the NFC East for the first time all season. The Cowboys were priced at +300 after their Week 1 loss, but are now the favorite with +114 odds.
Odds to win NFC East
Dallas Cowboys +114
Philadelphia Eagles +262
Washington Redskins +420
New York Giants +515