clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Remaining Strength Of Schedule For All 32 Teams Based On Vegas Super Bowl Odds

New, comments

The remaining schedule could easily play a key role in determining which teams make it to the playoffs and which don't.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Traditional strength of schedule calculations add up the record of a team’s 16 opponents to get a cumulative win percentage for all 16 opponents. That exercise can also be done mid-season to get a feel for the remaining strength of schedule (SOS) each team faces.

For example, the Colts' nine remaining opponents (counting division opponents twice) have a 31-21 W/L record so far this season, so the Colts have an SOS of .596, the highest of any team in the NFL.

Another way to look at remaining SOS is to use the Vegas Super Bowl odds as a proxy for team strength. Odds aren't an exact science of course, but looking at odds has an advantage of looking at W/L records: Odds are an attempt at predicting future performance, while W/L records are simply a snapshot of past performance.

To calculate the odds-based remaining SOS, I used the latest, post-Week 7 Super Bowl odds from bookmaker.eu, and assigned each team points based on their Super Bowl odds.

The Patriots (+270) are currently favored to win Super Bowl LI, so they received one point. The Seahawks (+700), Vikings (+850), Packers (+1000), and Cowboys (+1300), were assigned two, three, four, and five points respectively. The 49ers (+500000) and Browns (+1000000) have the worst odds, and were assigned 31 and 32 points.

I then calculated the average points for each team's remaining schedule, with a lower number meaning a tougher schedule.

Using the odds-based method, the Eagles have the toughest remaining SOS. Their 10 remaining opponents (including Cowboys twice, Packers, and Seahawks), show an average odds-based ranking of 9.8.

Here is what the remaining SOS based on Super Bowl odds looks like for all 32 teams entering Week 8. For your convenience, the table is sortable (just click on the blue column headers).

Remaining 2016 Strength Of Schedule By Team
Team Odds-based SOS Opp Win %
Philadelphia Eagles 9.8 0.593
Washington Redskins 10.7 0.520
Baltimore Ravens 11.1 0.537
Indianapolis Colts 11.8 0.596
Carolina Panthers 12.5 0.561
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12.9 0.536
Green Bay Packers 13.0 0.542
Buffalo Bills 13.2 0.519
Detroit Lions 13.4 0.549
Cleveland Brown 13.7 0.509
Denver Broncos 13.9 0.569
San Francisco 49ers 13.9 0.444
Oakland Raiders 14.2 0.510
Arizona Cardinals 14.4 0.471
New York Giants 14.4 0.472
Jacksonville Jaguars 14.5 0.590
Kansas City Chiefs 14.8 0.525
Dallas Cowboys 14.9 0.517
Atlanta Falcons 15.1 0.460
Minnesota Vikings 15.2 0.508
Cincinnati Bengals 15.2 0.491
Houston Texans 15.2 0.500
Tennessee Titans 15.3 0.462
Chicago Bears 15.4 0.528
Los Angeles Rams 15.4 0.442
Pittsburgh Steelers 16.0 0.455
New Orleans Saints 16.5 0.474
Seattle Seahawks 17.0 0.526
New York Jets 17.8 0.446
San Diego Chargers 18.0 0.453
New England Patriots 18.7 0.444
Miami Dolphins 20.2 0.382

For the Cowboys, both calculations place them somewhere around average. They have the 15th toughest schedule by opponent win percentage and the 18th toughest schedule by opponent Super Bowl odds.

The calculations also don't do much for the Eagles either way, they have the 2nd toughest remaining SOS by opponent win percentage and the toughest remaining SOS by opponent Super Bowl odds.

But the Redskins and Giants make big jumps. The Redskins jump from 13th (Opp Win %) to 2nd overall (Odds-based SOS), while the Giants jump from 22nd to 15th, an indication that their remaining opponents could be a lot tougher than those opponents' records currently indicate.

Star_medium

For reference, here are the latest Super Bolw odds per bookmaker.eu:

Super Bowl Odds per Week 8
Team Odds Team Odds Team Odds
New England Patriots +270 Oakland Raiders +2800 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +19000
Seattle Seahawks +700 New York Giants +5000 New Orleans Saints +22000
Minnesota Vikings +850 Cincinnati Bengals +5500 Miami Dolphins +24000
Green Bay Packers +1000 San Diego Chargers +6500 Tennessee Titans +25000
Dallas Cowboys +1300 Houston Texans +6700 Jacksonville Jaguars +28000
Pittsburgh Steelers +1350 Indianapolis Colts +7000 Los Angeles Rams +30000
Atlanta Falcons +1500 Washington Redskins +7500 New York Jets +32000
Denver Broncos +1700 Buffalo Bills +8000 Chicago Bears +200000
Arizona Cardinals +2200 Carolina Panthers +8250 San Francisco 49ers +500000
Kansas City Chiefs +2400 Detroit Lions +14000 Cleveland Browns +1000000
Philadelphia Eagles +2500 Baltimore Ravens +15000