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How do Dak Prescott’s numbers compare to the best rookie quarterback seasons in the Super Bowl era? Let’s see.
For a ranking of all-time rookie seasons, I’m relying on a recent Sports Illustrated ranking. You can certainly quibble with SI’s rankings — for example, Cam Newton is ranked too high, despite his very impressive rushing TD numbers. And it’s possible SI even missed someone who should be on this list. But let’s accept their rankings and look at the numbers.
(I’m using AY/A - adjusted yards per attempt, rather than the ANY/A number we’ve used in the weekly Dak and Zeke report because AY/A is easily available. The difference is that the latter includes sacks.)
For Dak Prescott, I’ve included his numbers to date, and then projected them over a full 16-game season.
Dak Prescott v. Super Bowl Era Rookie Quarterbacks
| SI Rank | QB | Cmp | Att | Cmp % | Yds | AY/A | P TD | Int | Rate | Rush | R Yds | R TD | W-L | Playoffs? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | P Manning | 326 | 575 | 56.7 | 3739 | 5.2 | 26 | 28 | 71.2 | 15 | 62 | 3W-13L | No | |
| 9 | Winston | 312 | 535 | 58.3 | 4042 | 7.1 | 22 | 15 | 84.2 | 54 | 213 | 6 | 6W-10L | No |
| 8 | Dalton | 300 | 576 | 58.1 | 3398 | 6.2 | 20 | 13 | 80.4 | 37 | 152 | 1 | 9W-7L | WC Loss |
| 7 | Luck | 339 | 627 | 54.1 | 4374 | 6.4 | 23 | 18 | 76.5 | 62 | 255 | 5 | 11W-5L | WC Loss |
| 6 | Ryan | 265 | 434 | 61.1 | 3440 | 7.5 | 16 | 11 | 87.7 | 55 | 104 | 1 | 11W-5L | No |
| 5 | Marino | 173 | 296 | 58.4 | 2210 | 7.9 | 20 | 6 | 96 | 28 | 45 | 2 | 7W-2L | Div Loss |
| 4 | Wilson | 252 | 393 | 64.1 | 3118 | 8.1 | 26 | 10 | 100 | 94 | 489 | 4 | 11W-5L | Div Loss |
| 3 | Newton | 310 | 517 | 60 | 4051 | 7.2 | 21 | 17 | 84.5 | 126 | 706 | 14 | 6W-10L | No |
| 2 | RGIII | 258 | 393 | 65.6 | 3200 | 8.6 | 20 | 5 | 102.4 | 120 | 815 | 7 | 9W-6L | WC Loss |
| 1 | Big Ben | 196 | 295 | 66.4 | 2621 | 8.4 | 17 | 11 | 98.1 | 56 | 144 | 1 | 13W-0L | AFC Loss |
| Now | Prescott | 125 | 182 | 68.7 | 1486 | 8.7 | 7 | 1 | 103.9 | 20 | 67 | 3 | 5W-1L | ??? |
| Projected | Prescott | 333 | 485 | 68.7 | 3962 | 8.7 | 19 | 3 | 103.9 | 53 | 179 | 8 | 13W-3L | ??? |
Look at that! Dak Prescott is holding up so far to the best rookie quarterback seasons in the Super Bowl era. Dak is:
- Highest in completion percentage, AY/A, and passer rating.
- He is on pace to win as many games as any quarterback on the list - 13.
- He is projected to finish third in passing yards, with the fewest interceptions, and is projected to rush for the second most TDs.
Of course, Dak won’t realize these totals if he is replaced by Tony Romo during the season, or if he can’t keep up his present pace. But it’s also possible he could exceed them.
Ezekiel Elliott v. Super Bowl Era Rookie Running Backs
There are a few lists of top rookie running backs. This Cheat Sheet report picked their top-7. This NFL network report listed its top-five, with two honorable mentions. For the top-10 below, I relied instead on this Scout report, but I changed their order. I didn’t understand how they ranked Barry Sanders second, when his numbers didn’t come close to warranting it. Instead, these rushers are ranked on their total rushing yards as rookies. The other numbers are there, and you can rank them however you like.
Again, for Zeke, as for Dak, his current numbers are included, and his projected numbers over 16 games.
| Rank | Player | Carries | Yards | Y/A | Rush TD | Recs | Yds | Rec TD | Y Scrim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Adrian Peterson | 238 | 1341 | 5.6 | 12 | 19 | 268 | 1 | 1609 |
| 9 | Earl Campbell | 302 | 1450 | 4.8 | 13 | 12 | 48 | 1498 | |
| 8 | Barry Sanders | 280 | 1470 | 5.3 | 14 | 24 | 282 | 1752 | |
| 7 | Mike Anderson | 297 | 1487 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 169 | 1656 | |
| 6 | Clinton Portis | 273 | 1508 | 5.5 | 15 | 33 | 364 | 2 | 1872 |
| 5 | Edgerrin James | 369 | 1553 | 4.2 | 13 | 62 | 586 | 4 | 2139 |
| 4 | Ottis Anderson | 331 | 1605 | 4.8 | 8 | 41 | 305 | 2 | 1913 |
| 3 | Alfred Morris | 335 | 1613 | 4.8 | 13 | 11 | 77 | 1690 | |
| 2 | George Rogers | 378 | 1674 | 4.4 | 13 | 16 | 126 | 1800 | |
| 1 | Eric Dickerson | 390 | 1808 | 4.6 | 18 | 51 | 404 | 2 | 2212 |
| Now | Ezekiel Elliott | 137 | 703 | 5.13 | 5 | 11 | 98 | 801 | |
| Project | Ezekiel Elliott | 365 | 1875 | 5.13 | 13 | 29 | 261 | 2136 |
Pretty amazing! Zeke is on pace to rush for more yards as a rookie than the incomparable Eric Dickerson in fewer carries. Zeke is projected to finish third in total yards from scrimmage behind Dickerson and Edgerrin James, but 2,136 yards, if Zeke attains that, would be pretty outstanding.
There’s not much more to say, except maybe to give a shout out to the Dallas offensive line. On that score, you should read this piece by OCC if you missed it.
Let the comparisons begin!