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2016 NFL Mock Draft Database 3.0: What The Wisdom Of 50 Mocks Says About Who Cowboys Will Pick

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We leverage the mother of all mock draft databases to get a better feel for what the Cowboys will do with their top pick in the 2016 NFL draft.

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Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

In our first mock draft database of the season, published the day before the Senior Bowl on January 29, we took a look at 30 different mock drafts. A week later, we upped that number to 37 different mock drafts. Today, our tally has reached 50 mock drafts.

In 2004, James Surowiecki published a book titled "The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations." As you'd expect from the uber-long title, the central argument is that the aggregation of information from a large group of people can provide better results than from any single individual.

Using our 50 draft analysts as our sample crowd, their aggregated wisdom suggests Myles Jack (30% of the vote) or Jalen Ramsey (20%) will be the Cowboys pick in the 2016 NFL draft, though we may not have needed 50 mock drafts to figure that out. Similarly, 80% of the mocks seem to agree that the Cowboys will not be picking a QB with their No. 4 pick.

Here's who the 50 mocks have the Cowboys picking.

Mock Draft Database 3.0 - Who do the draft analysts have the Cowboys selecting at No. 4?
Analyst Site Cowboys pick at No. 4 Position School Last Update
Drafttek Team DraftTek Jalen Ramsey
CB/S Florida State 2/19
Alpha1 Alpha Football Expert Myles Jack
LB UCLA
2/19
Kevin Hanson EDS Football Joey Bosa
DE Ohiao State
2/19
Mel Kiper ESPN Jared Goff QB California 2/18
Lance Zierlein NFL.com Jalen Ramsey
CB/S Florida State 2/18
Staff Draftseason Paxton Lynch
QB Memphis 2/18
Matt LaPan Draftbreakdown Jalen Ramsey
CB/S Florida State 2/18
Eric Edholm Yahoo Sports Jalen Ramsey
CB/S Florida State 2/17
Chad Reuter NFL.com Joey Bosa
DE Ohio State
2/17
Walter Cherepinsky Walter Football Myles Jack
LB UCLA 2/17
Chris Burke SI.com Myles Jack LB UCLA 2/17
Eddie Borwn San Diego Union Trib. Myles Jack
LB UCLA 2/17
Paul Banks Sportsbank Myles Jack
LB UCLA 2/17
Tab Bamford Chicago Sportstab Carson Wentz
QB N.D. State 2/17
Daniel Jeremiah NFL.com Myles Jack
LB UCLA 2/16
Dan Kadar SB Nation Myles Jack LB UCLA 2/15
Rob Rang CBS Sports Myles Jack LB UCLA 2/15
Ryan McCrystal DraftAce Myles Jack LB UCLA 2/15
Dane Brugler CBS Sports Joey Bosa
DE Ohio State 2/15
Jon Meoli Baltimore Sun Carson Wentz QB
N.D. State 2/15
Charlie Campbell Walter Football Myles Jack
LB
Ohio State 2/15
Rob Staton Seahawksdraftblog Jalen Ramsey CB/S Florida State 2/14
Steve Serby NY Post DeForest Buckner
DE Oregon 2/13
Charean Williams Fort Worth Star-Telegram Myles Jack
LB UCLA 2/12
NESN Staff NESN Myles Jack
LB UCLA 2/12
Josh Norris Rotoworld NFL Myles Jack
LB UCLA 2/11
Jon Valencia Breaking Football Joey Bosa DE Ohio State 2/11
Hays Carlton Florida Times Union Paxton Lynch
QB
Memphis
2/11
Lou Pickney Draft King Jalen Ramsey
CB/S
Florida State
2/11
Robert Davis Football's Future Carson Wentz
QB N.D. State 2/10
Dan Bilicki Toronto Sun Joey Bosa DE Ohio State 2/10
Eric Galko Sporting News Joey Bosa
DE Ohio State 2/09
Dan Turner NFL Draft Zone Myles Jack LB UCLA 2/09
DJ Boyer Draft Site Myles Jack LB UCLA 2/09
Matt Miller Bleacher Report Joey Bosa
DE Ohio State 2/08
Dan Wilkens The Score Laquon Treadwell WR Ole Miss 2/08
Bob McManaman AZCentral Paxton Lynch
QB Memphis
2/08
Nate Davis USA Today Joey Bosa DE Ohio State 2/08
Robert Judin Campus Insiders Jalen Ramsey CB/S Florida State 2/08
Nick Clopsis Newsday Laquon Treadwell WR Ole Miss 2/08
Todd McShay ESPN (McShay) Carson Wentz
QB N.D. State
2/03
Dave Syvertsen Ourlads Carson Wentz
QB N.D. State
2/02
Steve Palazzolo Pro Football Focus Jalen Ramsey
CB/S Florida State 2/02
Jeff Risdon RealGM Ezekiel Elliot
RB Ohio State
2/01
Scott Wright DraftCountdown Joey Bosa DE Ohio State 1/26
Peter Schrager Foxsports Jared Goff QB Cal 1/26
Bucky Brooks NFL.com Joey Bosa
DE Ohio State 1/17
Jason McIntyre The Big Lead Jalen Ramsey CB/S Florida State 1/13
John Harris Washington Post Andrew Billings DT Baylor 1/13
GBN Staff Great Blue North Jalen Ramsey CB/S Florida State 1/07

Here's a further breakdown of how the players selected have changed since two weeks ago.

Summary results by player
Player POS Jan 29
Feb 5
Feb 19
Myles Jack LB 9 9 15
Jalen Ramsey CB 5 3 10
Joey Bosa DE 6 7 9
Carson Wentz QB 1 9 5
Paxton Lynch QB - - 1 3
Jared Goff QB 1 1 2
Laquon Treadwell WR 1 1 2
DeForest Buckner DE 2 2 1
Andrew Billings DT 1 1 1
Ezekiel Elliott RB - - 1 1
A'Shawn Robinson DT 3 2 - -
Robert Nkemdiche DT 1 - - - -

For the wisdom of crowds argument to work, you have to believe that there are different knowledge levels in a crowd that can be coordinated to provide a more precise result in aggregate. But what if there's no knowledge level in these mocks at all?