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Post-Draft NFL Over/Under Win Totals Are In For All 32 Teams

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The Las Vegas win projections have a new NFC East team making the playoffs this year, and it's not the Giants or Eagles.

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Super Bowl was played about three months ago, the season kicks off in about three months, which means we've reached the halfway point of the offseason. Three months down, three months to go.

While there may be the occasional veteran free agent signed here or there, free agency is effectively over. The draft is in the books, and the main college free agents have been gobbled up by teams. And while rosters still need to be trimmed from 90 players to 53, for the most part, the teams are now set for the season. And barring key injuries and trades, that won't change much over the coming three months.

Which is why the LV Superbook released updated, post-free agency, post-draft, 2016-17 NFL regular season win totals this week.

The first season win projections projections for the season were posted by the Westgate LV Superbook in February. They have since updated those numbers to reflect the early betting on the win projections, trades, free agency, suspensions, and most recently, the draft.

For the Cowboys, who were slammed for their free agency approach and only got lukewarm reviews (I'm phrasing this positively) for their draft, nothing changed. The projection is still for nine wins and for them to win the NFC East. But it gets a little more interesting after that.

  • The Eagles, drop by 0.5 wins to 7 total wins despite spending $114 million in free agency and moving up to the second overall spot in the draft for what they hope will be their franchise QB.
  • The Redskins, widely hailed for their draft haul, also drop by 0.5 wins to 7 total wins.
  • The Giants found out that spending $206 million on free agents didn't move the needle much, as their win total only moved from 7.5 to 8 wins.

Here's a summary of the win projections for all 32 NFL teams, including how those projections have changed from February to today:

American Football Conference
AFC East Proj. Wins Change
New England Patriots 10.5 - -
Buffalo Bills 8
- -
New York Jets 8 +1
Miami Dolphins 7 - -
AFC North Proj. Wins Change
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5
- -
Cincinnati Bengals 9.5 - -
Baltimore Ravens 8.5 +1
Cleveland Browns 4.5 - -
AFC South Proj. Wins Change
Indianapolis Colts 9 +0.5
Houston Texans 8.5 +0.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 7 +1
Tennessee Titans 5.5 - -
AFC West Proj. Wins Change
Denver Broncos 9.5 - -
Kansas City Chiefs 9.0
- -
Oakland Raiders 8 +0.5
San Diego Chargers 7 - -
National Football Conference
NFC East Proj. Wins Change
Dallas Cowboys 9 - -
New York Giants 8 +0.5
Philadelphia Eagles 7
-0.5
Washington Redskins 7
-0.5
NFC North Proj. Wins Change
Green Bay Packers 10.5 - -
Minnesota Vikings 9
- -
Chicago Bears 7.5 +1
Detroit Lions 7 - -
NFC South Proj. Wins Change
Carolina Panthers 10.5
- -
Atlanta Falcons 7
- -
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
+0.5
New Orleans Saints 6.5
-0.5
NFC West Proj. Wins Change
Seattle Seahawks 10.5 - -
Arizona Cardinals 10 +0.5
Los Angeles Rams 7.5 +0.5
San Francisco 49ers 6
+1

We know that playoff teams churn by about 50% every year, yet Vegas is fairly conservative in its outlook, only projecting two new teams to make the playoffs this year: the Cowboys and the Colts.

We know of course that Vegas’ favorite team is cash. If they over- or undervalue a team they lose money, and with these over/unders, the sportsbooks are really just trying to play against the bettors and get equal money on both sides of the bet.

Be that as it may, if their projection of a playoff berth for the Cowboys comes true, I ain't complainin'.