Seven NFL teams, or about every fifth team, replaced their head coaches following the 2015 season.
Washington's Jay Gruden was the early favorite to get the boot last year, but not only did he keep his job, he also led his Redskins to a division title in the NFC East - where two other coaches were fired: Tom Coughlin "retired" and Chip Kelly was chased out of Philly.
But outside of Gruden, the early odds last year proved to be a pretty good indicator for who would eventually be fired. Here are the seven coaches who got fired and where they ranked in the 2015 preseason.
|4||Jim Tomsula||San Francisco||+1200|
|8||Lovie Smith||Tampa Bay||+2000|
|15||Tom Coughlin||New York Giants||+3300|
Head coaches are fired every year, and they'll be fired again this year. But which coaches are on the hot seat entering this season?
The Bookmaker Sportsbook ran the odds on which NFL head coach would be fired first this year. Should the coaches in the top 10 start polishing their resumes? Here's the whole list of odds:
|2||Mike McCoy||San Diego||+385|
|3||Jeff Fisher||Los Angeles||+700|
|6||Chip Kelly||San Francisco||+1500|
|T9||Sean Payton||New Orleans||+2000|
|T9||Dirk Koetter||Tampa Bay||+2000|
|T13||Jack Del Rio||Oakland||+2500|
|T20||Todd Bowles||New York Jets||+4000|
|22||Ben McAdoo||New York Giants||+4500|
|T25||Andy Reid||Kansas City||+10000|
|29||Mike McCarthy||Green Bay||+15000|
|T30||Bill Belichick||New England||+25000|
The names at the top of the list don't come as a big surprise.
The Lions started out 1-7 last year, but then won six of their last eight, which allowed Caldwell to hang on to his job, but barely. They won't duplicate their end-of season run this year, which is not going to sit well with the Detroit front office.
In San Diego, Mike McCoy kept his job, but OC Frank Reich and five assistant coaches were fired at the end of the season. And the ongoing chaos in San Diego does not bode well for McCoy's future.
Jeff Fisher incredibly retained his job after four consecutive non-winning seasons in St. Louis. Fisher is the poster child for average coaching, and with the Rams trying to impress a tough LA audience, Fisher is running out of time to get the Rams going in the right direction.
The Jaguars have a 12-36 record under Bradley, but that may not be as bad as it looks given the state of the franchise. They've loaded up in drafts so the arrow should be pointing up - but they are still the Jaguars.
And then there's Jason Garrett. After a 4-12 season, it looks like the old meme about Garrett being on the hotseat has been resurrected, at least in terms of where the betting public's money is flowing these days.
That's not to say that Garrett isn't under any pressure. Jerry Jones signed Garrett to a $30 million, five-year contract in January 2015, and while Garrett will get a chance to turn around last year's 4-12 season, he's entering his sixth season in Dallas, and it's time to show results.
Jones has let it be known that he wants Garrett to be his Tom Landry, but that's only going to happen with some sustained success. Garrett is now the longest-tenured coach in the NFC East and the eighth longest-tenured coach in the NFL behind Bill Belichick (2001), Marvin Lewis (2003), Sean Payton (2006), Mike McCarthy (2006), Mike Tomlin (2007), John Harbaugh (2008) and Pete Carroll (2010). That's a pretty impressive peer group, but while all of those coaches (except Lewis) have won Super Bowls, Garrett has made the playoffs just once with the Cowboys.
Garrett's contract notwithstanding, if you were Jerry Jones, what would you consider a minimum requirement for 2016 for Garrett to keep his job into 2017?
Would a winning record be enough?
Are the playoffs a must?
Is a playoff win a requirement?
Perhaps two playoff wins or a trip to the conference championships?
The danger in any type of long relationship is that you become comfortable with the status quo after a while, that complacency begins to set in. And after six years, it may be time to cut your losses if you're not getting the results you want.