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Betting Odds Released: Which NFL Coach Is Getting Fired First?

Place your bets, which NFL coaches will get the boot in 2016?

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Seven NFL teams, or about every fifth team, replaced their head coaches following the 2015 season.

Washington's Jay Gruden was the early favorite to get the boot last year, but not only did he keep his job, he also led his Redskins to a division title in the NFC East - where two other coaches were fired: Tom Coughlin "retired" and Chip Kelly was chased out of Philly.

But outside of Gruden, the early odds last year proved to be a pretty good indicator for who would eventually be fired. Here are the seven coaches who got fired and where they ranked in the 2015 preseason.

Rank 2015
Coach Team Odds
2 Mike Pettine Cleveland +550
3 Ken Whisenhunt Tennessee +750
4 Jim Tomsula San Francisco +1200
5 Joe Philbin Miami +1500
8 Chip Kelly Philadelphia +2000
8 Lovie Smith Tampa Bay +2000
15 Tom Coughlin New York Giants +3300

Head coaches are fired every year, and they'll be fired again this year. But which coaches are on the hot seat entering this season?

The Bookmaker Sportsbook ran the odds on which NFL head coach would be fired first this year. Should the coaches in the top 10 start polishing their resumes? Here's the whole list of odds:

Rank Coach Team Odds
1 Jim Caldwell Detroit +370
2 Mike McCoy San Diego +385
3 Jeff Fisher Los Angeles +700
T4 Gus Bradley Jacksonville +1100
T4 Jason Garrett Dallas +1100
6 Chip Kelly San Francisco +1500
T7 Bill O'Brien Houston +1750
T7 Chuck Pagano Indianapolis +1750
T9 Sean Payton New Orleans +2000
T9 Dirk Koetter Tampa Bay +2000
T9 Mike Mularkey Tennessee +2000
T9 Jay Gruden Washington +2000
T13 Jack Del Rio Oakland +2500
T13 John Fox Chicago +2500
T13 Rex Ryan Buffalo +2500
T13 Doug Pederson Philadelphia +2500
17 Adam Gase Miami +3000
18 Hue Jackson Cleveland +3300
19 Dan Quinn Atlanta +3500
T20 Todd Bowles New York Jets +4000
T20 John Harbaugh Baltimore +4000
22 Ben McAdoo New York Giants +4500
23 Marvin Lewis Cincinnati +5000
24 Mike Zimmer Minnesota +7500
T25 Gary Kubiak Denver +10000
T25 Andy Reid Kansas City +10000
T25 Mike Tomlin Pittsburgh +10000
T25 Ron Rivera Carolina +10000
29 Mike McCarthy Green Bay +15000
T30 Pete Carroll Seattle +25000
T30 Bill Belichick New England +25000
T30 Bruce Arians Arizona +25000

The names at the top of the list don't come as a big surprise.

The Lions started out 1-7  last year, but then won six of their last eight, which allowed Caldwell to hang on to his job, but barely. They won't duplicate their end-of season run this year, which is not going to sit well with the Detroit front office.

In San Diego, Mike McCoy kept his job, but OC Frank Reich and five assistant coaches were fired at the end of the season. And the ongoing chaos in San Diego does not bode well for McCoy's future.

Jeff Fisher incredibly retained his job after four consecutive non-winning seasons in St. Louis. Fisher is the poster child for average coaching, and with the Rams trying to impress a tough LA audience, Fisher is running out of time to get the Rams going in the right direction.

The Jaguars have a 12-36 record under Bradley, but that may not be as bad as it looks given the state of the franchise. They've loaded up in drafts so the arrow should be pointing up - but they are still the Jaguars.

And then there's Jason Garrett. After a 4-12 season, it looks like the old meme about Garrett being on the hotseat has been resurrected, at least in terms of where the betting public's money is flowing these days.

That's not to say that Garrett isn't under any pressure. Jerry Jones signed Garrett to a $30 million, five-year contract in January 2015, and while Garrett will get a chance to turn around last year's 4-12 season, he's entering his sixth season in Dallas, and it's time to show results.

Jones has let it be known that he wants Garrett to be his Tom Landry, but that's only going to happen with some sustained success. Garrett is now the longest-tenured coach in the NFC East and the eighth longest-tenured coach in the NFL behind Bill Belichick (2001), Marvin Lewis (2003), Sean Payton (2006), Mike McCarthy (2006), Mike Tomlin (2007), John Harbaugh (2008) and Pete Carroll (2010). That's a pretty impressive peer group, but while all of those coaches (except Lewis) have won Super Bowls, Garrett has made the playoffs just once with the Cowboys.

Garrett's contract notwithstanding, if you were Jerry Jones, what would you consider a minimum requirement for 2016 for Garrett to keep his job into 2017?

Would a winning record be enough?

Are the playoffs a must?

Is a playoff win a requirement?

Perhaps two playoff wins or a trip to the conference championships?

The danger in any type of long relationship is that you become comfortable with the status quo after a while, that complacency begins to set in. And after six years, it may be time to cut your losses if you're not getting the results you want.

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